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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

3km
nam3km_asnow_seus_38.png
 
Well looks like the best I can get here is an inch I'll be happy about that but at the same time letdown what a winter
 
The NAM has been adamant with a heavier area of accumulating snow around Atlanta, focusing on heavier amounts to the South. If the idea is correct, that heavier band may shift into the city and surprise many.
 
SO TUESDAY BMX HAS THE HIGH TEMP OF 32° THE NAM HAS THE HIGH AS 53° TUE @ 00Z AND 47° AT 09Z. WHAT AM I MISSING???
 
Here's the latest thinking from MRX.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
342 AM EST Mon Jan 28 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today)...

A cold arctic air mass is heading our way, but first a very nice
January day is on tap across the region.

Strong low pressure was situated over central Iowa this morning,
with a cold front draped southwestward across the central plains and
a stationary boundary extending southeast through the Tennessee
Valley and the southern Appalachians. Meanwhile the arctic front was
just a little further north across Wyoming and South Dakota. The
aforementioned stationary boundary will surge back to the north as a
warm front today as the Iowa surface low moves east into Michigan.
This is all in response to strong energy diving south into a
persistent and broad upper trough that has been in place across the
eastern CONUS for the last couple of days. With the warm front to
our north and us sitting firmly in the warm sector of the
strengthening mid latitude cyclone, expect to see a very comfortable
January day. A well mixed low level atmosphere should result in
partly to mostly cloudy skies, and temperatures in the well into the
50s for much of the Tenn Valley with a few locations possibly
approaching 60 degrees this afternoon in the south.

The daytime hours today should be dry. Precipitation, cold air, and
all the wintry mess arrives in the long term period beginning later
tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)...
A challenging forecast for tonight and Tuesday. A deep upper
trough move into the Great Lakes with a series of jets increasing
the upward forcing over the Tennessee Valley and southern
Appalachians. In response, an increasing low-level southwest jet
pulls moisture back northward into the area. There are fairly
significant disagreements in how much/fast this moisture gets
pulled north. The previous GFS and current ECMWF and NAM are in
decent agreement, but latest GFS run is drier. Plan on following
the trend with the models and SREF/GEFS plumes to decide snowfall
potential with this system.

The jet dynamics will enhance the frontogenetic forcing along a
strong arctic front which moves across the area between 06-12Z
Tuesday. Models show a sharp drop in temperatures with frontal
passage. The precipitation will begin as a mixture of rain/snow
then quickly transition to snow with a period of 3 to 4 hours of
decent snowfall. Will call for 2 to 3 inches over most locations,
except for the Smoky Mountains to southeast Monroe County with 3
to 6 inches are anticipated. Thus will upgrade watch to an
advisory, except warning for the Smokies.

Snow will end by late morning/early afternoon most locations with
sky gradual clearing from west to east.

For Wednesday, a true arctic front will usher in the coldest air
so far this season. A period of light snow is possible, especially
along and north of interstate 40. Dangerous wind chills are likely
for the higher elevations Tuesday night and especially Wednesday
night. Even the lower terrain will see very cold wind chills.

For Thursday, arctic high will build into the area producing dry
conditions but still cold.

For Thursday night and Friday, arctic airmass will quickly lose
it`s grip with more seasonal temperatures. There is a chance of
snow or snow/rain mixture for Friday as warmer air (isentropic
lift) produces lift over the area.

For next week, upper ridging becomes established with southerly
winds developing producing milder conditions. Southerly winds will
increase the isentropic lift produce a chance of rain showers.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 29 33 20 / 10 100 80 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 30 33 18 / 0 100 90 0
Oak Ridge, TN 54 28 31 18 / 0 100 80 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 33 35 14 / 0 80 90 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EST Tuesday for
Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for Blount
Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky
Mountains-Southeast Monroe.

Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ to 4 PM EST /3
PM CST/ Tuesday for Anderson-Bledsoe-Bradley-Campbell-
Claiborne-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-Hancock-
Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-
Morgan-NW Blount-North Sevier-Northwest Carter-Northwest
Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-
Sequatchie-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Sullivan-
Unicoi-Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EST Tuesday for Lee-
Russell-Scott-Washington-Wise.
 
Apparently we've been upgraded in Alabama to a winter storm warning according to whnt news 19 hmm
 
NorthGaWinter4 said:
What are you talking about?!?!
Click to expand...

Ever since the tease through Metro Atlanta on the 12z NAM/GFS runs yesterday, the models have been gradually reversing course with each consecutive run (between less QPF and a slower progression of the cold air)

Bear in mind too that it's a day time post-frontal event in a region that only averages 2" per year. The bust potential was always there.

I do still think areas in the Apppalachian region of N. AL and NW GA can do relatively well. It will all depend on when the trailing shortwave buckles from the gulf (which seems poised to happen earlier and earlier as the main shortwave in the Great Lakes trends weaker/south).
 
Last edited:
BMX AFD
.SHORT TERM...
Through Tuesday afternoon.

Only minor changes were made to the snow amounts and changeover
timing for Tuesday morning. Rain is still expected to change to
snow beginning as early as midnight in the Northwest. The band of
precipitation and changeover zone will move southeastward through
the morning, and forecast soundings indicate the potential for
bursts of heavy snow as the changeover occurs. Models have come
into better agreement and are honing in on a corridor of
accumulations in alignment with our forecasts over the past couple
of days. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued across the
northern part of our area where impacts are expected to be
greatest. This is where temperatures are most likely to drop into
the mid to upper 20s near the back edge of the snow band,
resulting in potentially dangerous travel conditions. In the
warning area, snowfall amounts may average around 2 inches with
locally higher amounts possible.

Within the Winter Weather Advisory area, temperatures may only
fall into the 30-34F range, and snowfall totals are likely to
remain below 2 inches. However, a quick burst of heavy snowfall is
possible anywhere in the advisory area which could lead to
difficult travel conditions. Some of the advisory area could be
upgraded to a warning if confidence increases in colder
temperatures and/or higher snowfall amounts.
 
So here is what I’ve determined ... throw all the models in the trash... and look out the window... leastest trends show more bust than boom potential...especially east ala/GA.. we need that cold to hurry up or moisture to slow down and/or increase.
 
Storm5 said:
Latest SREFs are down a little pretty much across the board
I sense this is going to bust totals falling now models not looking good either we need this to slow down

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk[/QUOT
Click to expand...
 
Just woke up to this from the Jackson MS office:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Jackson MS 351 AM CST Mon Jan 28 2019 ...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... .A strong cold front will combine with a weather disturbance to bring wintry precipitation to the region tonight into Tuesday morning. There is increasing confidence that accumulating snowfall will occur as temperatures fall rapidly behind the cold front. With temperatures falling below freezing, icing of roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will be a concern throughout the morning hours. In addition, strong wind will combine with the low temperatures to make for very low wind chill readings. Stay tuned for updates on this developing winter weather situation. MSZ030>033-036>039-042>052-281800- /O.UPG.KJAN.WS.A.0001.190129T0600Z-190129T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KJAN.WS.W.0001.190129T0600Z-190129T1500Z/ Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee- Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott- Newton-Lauderdale- Including the cities of West Point, Columbus, Ackerman, Weir, Starkville, Durant, Tchula, Lexington, Pickens, Goodman, Kosciusko, Louisville, Macon, Brooksville, Yazoo City, Ridgeland, Madison, Canton, Carthage, Philadelphia, Pearl River, De Kalb, Scooba, Vicksburg, Jackson, Pearl, Brandon, Richland, Forest, Morton, Newton, Union, Decatur, Conehatta, and Meridian 351 AM CST Mon Jan 28 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of around 2 inches are expected. Wind chills in the teens. * WHERE...Clay, Lowndes, Choctaw, Oktibbeha, Holmes, Attala, Winston, Noxubee, Yazoo, Madison, Leake, Neshoba, Kemper, Warren, Hinds, Rankin, Scott, Newton, and Lauderdale counties in Mississippi. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions, including during the morning commute on Tuesday. Be prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times.



I plan to drive up to Jackson, MS this evening to visit family and see the storm up close.

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