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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

NWCummingWx said:
Larry, I love to see your posts because I've followed you for years and years on these boards and know you are straight to the point, no bs or hype. Not trying to be too IMBY but how badly do you think the apps will prohibit the cold air from getting to Forsyth Co. NEward? That is my fear. The arctic airmass will be very cold and dense and will have trouble manouvering through the apps so it will take longer for us in NE Metro ATL.
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Well as an example only..NOT SAYING THIS IS ANYTHING CLOSE TO THIS!.. in the 1993 storm, it did seem to take longer than forecast for the rain to change over to snow in most of Metro ATL. So KATL got if I remember right maybe 6" total, while in NW GA totals were as much as 22" My estimate for "inner Metro" is at best 1-2' unless we happen to get a convective "thump" which is mostly a nowcast situation
 
gawxnative said:
Well as an example only..NOT SAYING THIS IS ANYTHING CLOSE TO THIS!.. in the 1993 storm, it did seem to take longer than forecast for the rain to change over to snow in most of Metro ATL. So KATL got if I remember right maybe 6" total, while in NW GA totals were as much as 22" My estimate for "inner Metro" is at best 1-2' unless we happen to get a convective "thump" which is mostly a nowcast situation
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That is a very enthusiastic at best estimate for inner Metro. That is a very interesting scenario you brought up about 93 (in a bad way). As the low was passing through to our south, winds turned straight off the apps which couldn't have been good for ATL/NEward. I had never thought about that.
 
gawxnative said:
Well as an example only..NOT SAYING THIS IS ANYTHING CLOSE TO THIS!.. in the 1993 storm, it did seem to take longer than forecast for the rain to change over to snow in most of Metro ATL. So KATL got if I remember right maybe 6" total, while in NW GA totals were as much as 22" My estimate for "inner Metro" is at best 1-2' unless we happen to get a convective "thump" which is mostly a nowcast situation
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I think most can live with 12-24" of snow. :p
 
NWCummingWx said:
Larry, I love to see your posts because I've followed you for years and years on these boards and know you are straight to the point, no bs or hype. Not trying to be too IMBY but how badly do you think the apps will prohibit the cold air from getting to Forsyth Co. NEward? That is my fear. The arctic airmass will be very cold and dense and will have trouble manouvering through the apps so it will take longer for us in NE Metro ATL.
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I think you’re right to be concerned. I’m educatedly guessing Cobb and other western metro counties will do best.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Call me crazy, but from what I can see, the NAM actually is wetter at around hour 30. This run might actually be better.
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Wow. It is very much wetter.

namconus_ref_frzn_us_30.png
 
Parent wave went more neutral (slightly) earlier it seems. RE: current NAM


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Weak insentrophic upglide in western nc this run ? That would help us out ALOT by cooling the column
 
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