• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

DarkKnight said:
Memphis get shafted in qpf on this run .. about the same in the rest of the areas if not a little better

New runView attachment 13439old run 12z
View attachment 13440
Click to expand...
What is funny to me is it’s showing verbatim less blue (precip maps) but heaviest qpf. I know the cold has to hurry, but someone could get lollipoped with that heavier band.
 
Arcc said:
Just FWIW, modeled accumulations stay about the same, yet QPF drops. That tells me cold air filtered in just a little faster this run. That is something to watch as we get closer and we clearly have a QPF increase down south. That is highly interesting as well.
Click to expand...
I just mentioned that too. It appears this run “aims” the deepest part of Vort toward GA. Have any Vort maps?
 
Yeah, this is that type of storm where you got to pay attention to 850/925 hPa Frontogenesis, could easily get a good burst of snow, also lapse rates, instability
 
DarkKnight said:
Different snowmap from euro. Nice widespread 2-3 for a good portion of Alabama and Mississippi.

1-2 inches for Georgia..View attachment 13452
Click to expand...

Could be a good bit higher for east central AL and most of central GA. Looking through the numbers and radar data, it looks like the thing that limits accumulations in these areas is daytime heating just enough to keep the temp a smidge higher. We know how that can be goofed in heavy precip, don't we.

Almost looks like a weak squall line(if you want to call it that) forms in southern AL and GA. Probably safe to say that a small surface wave forms in central AL and heads NE.
 
It's important for individuals here to at least keep an eye on the evolution of the Carolina wave a day or so prior, because the latent heating associated with that s/w realized as a positive potential vorticity maxima amplifies the downstream ridge ahead of the parent trough that'll usher in the arctic front and chance of accumulating snow for many on the board. Everything is connected & a bigger carolina cyclone = bigger downstream ridge which slows the subsequent arctic front down and allows the parent trough to become neutrally tilted sooner also increasing the opportunity for a wave of low pressure to develop along the front and throw more moisture back into oncoming the cold air which matters a lot for areas like the Carolinas & perhaps even areas further west if the Carolina wave trends strong enough
 
Arcc said:
Here is one.
Click to expand...
Thank you! I actually expected the doc to come in and be drier...ie the other models...who is right here? IDK...I DO trust the doc more...but its been awful at times lately as well. I did really like this run for sure. nice trend there.
 
Webberweather53 said:
It's important for individuals here to at least keep an eye on the evolution of the Carolina wave a day or so prior, because the latent heating associated with that s/w realized as a positive potential vorticity maxima amplifies the downstream ridge ahead of the parent trough that'll usher in the arctic front and chance of accumulating snow for many on the board. Everything is connected & a bigger carolina cyclone = bigger downstream ridge which slows the subsequent arctic front down and allows the parent trough to become neutrally tilted sooner also increasing the opportunity for a wave of low pressure to develop along the front and throw more moisture back into oncoming the cold air which matters a lot for areas like the Carolinas & perhaps even areas further west if the Carolina wave trends strong enough
Click to expand...
very good points...I think the euro is trying to hint at that on this run.
 
Webberweather53 said:
It's important for individuals here to at least keep an eye on the evolution of the Carolina wave a day or so prior, because the latent heating associated with that s/w realized as a positive potential vorticity maxima amplifies the downstream ridge ahead of the parent trough that'll usher in the arctic front and chance of accumulating snow for many on the board. Everything is connected & a bigger carolina cyclone = bigger downstream ridge which slows the subsequent arctic front down and allows the parent trough to become neutrally tilted sooner also increasing the opportunity for a wave of low pressure to develop along the front and throw more moisture back into oncoming the cold air which matters a lot for areas like the Carolinas & perhaps even areas further west if the Carolina wave trends strong enough
Click to expand...

You can see exactly what I'm talking about on the 48 hour z500 trend on the GFS. The bigger Carolina wave is strengthening the downstream ridge over Atlantic Canada and allows the trough many are concerned about for this arctic front to slow and become neutrally tilted sooner.

gfs_z500trend_namer_6.png
 
DarkKnight said:
Looks to me king has held serve. So now I wonder who we believe?? The king or gfs???
Click to expand...
I use to believe in the euro but it’s done this at least up here where it tends to show more precipitation then the gfs. It’s happened like 3-4 times since last year. Now this is only Middle Tennessee so it’s just one area and so obviously it’s not gospel. I’m still definitely happy it’s basically holding serve although the precipitation seems to be further east.
 
You can clearly see the effect the bigger Carolina cyclone on Monday is having on the pattern by looking at the height of the dynamical tropopause (2 PVU). Notice how the warmer colors (higher tropopause) engulfs Atlantic Canada on Tue because the coastal low near NC is stronger on Monday, which means the trough over the plains associated w/ our arctic front that gives those a chance of snow sharpens as wavelengths (or distance from trough to ridge) decrease. This will have a significant effect on the eventual outcome of this event for the board.

gfs_DTpres_namer_fh78_trend (1).gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
You can clearly see the effect the bigger Carolina cyclone on Monday is having on the pattern by looking at the height of the dynamical tropopause (2 PVU). Notice how the warmer colors (higher tropopause) engulfs Atlantic Canada on Tue because the coastal low near NC is stronger on Monday, which means the trough over the plains associated w/ our arctic front that gives those a chance of snow sharpens as wavelengths (or distance from trough to ridge) decrease. This will have a significant effect on the eventual outcome of this event for the board.

View attachment 13456
Click to expand...
@Webberweather53 do you think this can become a better storm than what the models are showing currently for the Tuesday storm?
 
ALSO THE CFS FROM HR 108 TO HR 252 HAS MOST OF ALABAMA AT OR BELOW FREEZING WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS..
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top