Semi-reverse psychology. Plus, better to not expect anything and be suprised than vice-versa. But for real, I don't expect enough snow to cover the ground here. I think the lee side effect will be in place with this; the dense cold air will have a tough time spilling over the mnts into this area and points east.
Then I'll ship you some 78º rain next week ...Thanks but no thanks, had my share of that this year.... enjoy it, in fact be selfish and keep all of it for yourself
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That circled area (especially the southern part) gets shafted alot when just to their north scores. Maybe their luck will change this time.
It will remain uncertain until the precip. is on radar.
Did you watch the FCC video? They said they may have increase snow amounts a little further south due to what some of the models are showing.
Actually, FCC is calling for 1-2" of snow for Forsyth County.
I think that's central Ala too..by the dept of transportation Aldot
It appears there will be a tight gradient from Cherokee to Forsyth, or could be anyway (based on everything I've seen). I doubt Forsyth gets 1-2", something like a heavy dusting to perhaps nearing an inch seems more attainable.
The hrrr is extremely untrustworthy the further you get from hour zero. I think it’s best from about 6 hours or less. Many of us have hung our hopes on the hrrr before only to have things slowly correct to other guidance one run at a time. Typically, you want to use a blend of the best models, especially the hi-res nam.I feel pretty sure the GFS has been under doing the moisture recently after comparing HRRR to GFS thru 12am Tuesday.
Widespread 2" snow amounts starting to enter AL on the HRRR is a good sign:
I know at 18 hours out it has always been the best model here in N. AL for snow. Perhaps it's not as good at 36 hours out, but it also might be picking up on some small mesoscale features which the other models haven't picked up yet.
Yes got a notification from ALDOT they were treating bridges in Birmingham and surrounding counties now and would start treating roads tomorrow
It will be a "wet" thick snow, especially with convective snow bands, which can produce heavy falling snow. A good amount a snow can fall in a short period of time with those convective snow bands. This is why some areas could get 2-3" max.
Yeah if we see some heavy convection embedded in the line of snow, we could see some high rates. I've seen a convective snow shower put down a quarter of an inch in 10 minutes before, so if we see similar rates, someone could get a solid few inches.
So I’m assuming this is essentially a winter equivalent of a squall line?
Pretty much, but much less in terms of intensity of precip.
Check Shelby County Airport(eet) I can see everything but tot snow fall. Wanting see if it was just me or the site.
Larry, I love to see your posts because I've followed you for years and years on these boards and know you are straight to the point, no bs or hype. Not trying to be too IMBY but how badly do you think the apps will prohibit the cold air from getting to Forsyth Co. NEward? That is my fear. The arctic airmass will be very cold and dense and will have trouble manouvering through the apps so it will take longer for us in NE Metro ATL.
