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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat


Not only that but a lot of precip showing up in the southern part of the state

ecmwf_qpf_th700_se_16.png
 
Is that a coastal wave that tries to develop off Nc/sc ? No wonder there so much more precip east of the apps
 
So folks in TN, MS, and AL either get a dusting to an inch at most, per the GFS, or widespread 2-4 inches. We've got a few more rounds of these runs before we can have a clear idea where this is headed.
 
Memphis get shafted in qpf on this run .. about the same in the rest of the areas if not a little better

New runView attachment 13439old run 12z
View attachment 13440

Just FWIW, modeled accumulations stay about the same, yet QPF drops. That tells me cold air filtered in just a little faster this run. That is something to watch as we get closer and we clearly have a QPF increase down south. That is highly interesting as well.
 
Euro is way better for the Carolinas, I think we hug, but fr that weak low pressure that develops off the coast helped us out on that run
 
Moisture looks fine here, but it's just gonna come down to the timing of the deeper cold air(pretty much for everyone east/southeast of the Southern Apps). Euro says I get almost 2 inches of snowfall(I'm sure a lot of this is probably being mixed with rain). Other models are meh. We'll see what tomorrow brings in terms of solutions. Still plenty of time for this to go one way or another.

Tomorrow, I personally want to see a trend towards a more progressive front.
 
Something also to monitor, the snow would begin right as rush our traffic starts in Atlanta. Factor in an Arctic front brining in the freezer behind it, and you have issues.
 
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