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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

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So I got a question. Why not just have the run like it is, with snow behind artic front(overrunning)? That way you don’t have to worry about a low causing WAA problems?? I guess both ways could work.
 
So I got a question. Why not just have the run like it is, with snow behind artic front(overrunning)? That way you don’t have to worry about a low causing WAA problems?? I guess both ways could work.
Lol, yeah that to
 
So I got a question. Why not just have the run like it is, with snow behind artic front(overrunning)? That way you don’t have to worry about a low causing WAA problems?? I guess both ways could work.

I would say because arctic fronts with snow on the backside rarely work out. If we had the front to stall and then get a wave to run along it we would have something. The event as modeled doesn't excite me and will back way away from snow 95% of the time as we near the event.
 
I would say because arctic fronts with snow on the backside rarely work out. If we had the front to stall and then get a wave to run along it we would have something. The event as modeled doesn't excite me and will back way away from snow 95% of the time as we near the event.
well good thing we got about 35 model runs left. ???
 
GFS also appeared to pop somewhat of a low after the frontal passage. It was just further south into the gulf
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I would say because arctic fronts with snow on the backside rarely work out. If we had the front to stall and then get a wave to run along it we would have something. The event as modeled doesn't excite me and will back way away from snow 95% of the time as we near the event.
Or it could trend better
 
GFS also appeared to pop somewhat of a low after the frontal passage. It was just further south into the gulf
View attachment 12718
I was looking at that earlier. As you can see there is shower activity down in the Gulf, which can indicate a devloping low. I'm all in for a Gulf low with a Miller A track, with fresh deep cold air to the north.
 
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