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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

rburrel2 said:
Just look at the old model runs for yourself. The models that have that convection and race it farther to the east… lead to more initial precip in central SC/eastern NC early on.

The hi-res models that were bone dry don’t have that convection racing east… and all the precip streams in a perfect curve as far north and west of us as possible, limiting the southern edge.
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How is now cast trending against the models?
 
superjames1992 said:
RDU is 25 / -9 as of 1pm! WOW, those insane DPs have turned out!

Wet bulb is 19! Good chance we do see the teens modeled verify!
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Of note, this is exactly what the 12z HRRR had at RDU for 18z (1pm), so that’s a feather in its cap.
 
Ron Burgundy said:
Welp. Back to Home Depot…
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Epps home depot got a huge shipment of generators last night, went there this morning for some plumbing bits and every one of the generators is gone.
Currently rocking low/mid 40s like most of us around north central GA & west central SC. The cold is coming, will be watching how quick it builds down from VA this afternoon into evening.
 
Makeitsnow said:
hrrr is going to bust on temps in sc and here. In sc, temps are 36/37 at in the gsp area to 39 in greeenwood compared to this by the hrrr. with strong caa underway, not going to happen. That will likely stranslate to colder temps tonight after wetbulbing.

View attachment 188574
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That's dead on pretty much here my upstate location. I'm sitting at 39
 
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After the initial precipitation tonight, most models do show a dry slot for tomorrow. By tomorrow morning this is what the RAP has for total QPF (up to hour 21):
1769279722008.png
Much of that has fallen as sleet over northern NC.

Below is the simulated radar on the last frame (hour 21):
1769279870117.png

Temps at hour 21:
1769280017403.png

Looking at soundings many (most areas) below freezing are still receiving freezing rain/drizzle, even as the simulated radar (precip types) shows nothing.
 
FallsLake said:
After the initial precipitation tonight, most models do show a dry slot for tomorrow. By tomorrow morning this is what the RAP has for total QPF (up to hour 21):
View attachment 188576
Much of that has fallen as sleet over northern NC.

Below is the simulated radar on the last frame (hour 21):
View attachment 188577

Temps at hour 21:
View attachment 188580

Looking at soundings many (most areas) below freezing are still receiving freezing rain/drizzle, even as the simulated radar (precip types) shows nothing.
Click to expand...
I think that was the concern of some Mets. Even though it shows a dry slot we might still having freezing drizzle that would accumulate efficiently.
 
FallsLake said:
After the initial precipitation tonight, most models do show a dry slot for tomorrow. By tomorrow morning this is what the RAP has for total QPF (up to hour 21):
View attachment 188576
Much of that has fallen as sleet over northern NC.

Below is the simulated radar on the last frame (hour 21):
View attachment 188577

Temps at hour 21:
View attachment 188580

Looking at soundings many (most areas) below freezing are still receiving freezing rain/drizzle, even as the simulated radar (precip types) shows nothing.
Click to expand...
Based on real-time regional radar, I'm 100% certain that the meager QPF modeled through the Atlanta/Athens area is dramatically underdone. If it has the temps within the CAD correct, then that's going to be a problem for those who dislike an ice storm.
 
The thing that still concerns me the most with this ice storm in the Carolinas is the squall line of heavy freezing rain showers and elevated supercells that comes at the tail end of this storm late Sunday evening into Sunday night.

Gusty winds from these could lead to widespread downed trees and power lines in areas that have significant ice accumulation left on the trees and power lines. This is more likely to be the case over the Piedmont in places like Raleigh & Charlotte down to Greenville-Spartanburg and even near the Triad. If your power goes out during this ice storm, the arrival of these gusty showers and embedded supercells is most likely when it will happen

Basically every high resolution CAM shows this scenario playing out, including the RRFS, NAM, HRRR, FV3, and ARW

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The thing I’m noting with the short range models is they’re correcting wetter in the short range. As they extend that’s where they’re drier. Again, even in their dry hours we will see precipitation that accrues very efficiently. I still think like most Mets we will continue to see these short range models fill in more and more
 
Webberweather53 said:
The thing that still concerns me the most with this ice storm in the Carolinas is the squall line of heavy freezing rain showers and elevated supercells that comes at the tail end of this storm late Sunday evening into Sunday night.

Gusty winds from these could lead to widespread downed trees and power lines in areas that have significant ice accumulation left on the trees and power lines. This is more likely to be the case over the Piedmont in places like Raleigh & Charlotte down to Greenville-Spartanburg and even near the Triad. If your power goes out during this ice storm, the arrival of these gusty showers and embedded supercells is most likely when it will happen

Basically every high resolution CAM shows this scenario playing out, including the RRFS, NAM, HRRR, FV3, and ARW

View attachment 188586
View attachment 188589

View attachment 188590

View attachment 188592

View attachment 188593
Click to expand...
In the heaviest areas and convection could you switch to sleet?
 
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