Thank you lol. The 3K is 2 degrees too warm at the surface and not dry enough at the +5 on the DP. Struggling isn’t the word
The most recent HRRR is +4 on the DP right now. Even the short range models aren’t handling the low level cold air or dryness well
You don’t see anywhere over an inch ?
Sounds a lot like 2015. That’s how that model bust started… us noticing temps/dews weren’t lining up about 8 hours prior to event start time.
Depends on orientation of it in the gulf. Could enhance.
Well I do think regardless, it's introduced a convective element to things tomorrow.
Truly insane that the low is gonna slam right into the HP and keep rolling.
If I sent you this exact picture in NW Piedmont NC in like 2002 you’d have to be thinking smash job… the two HP the Texas / OK / AR Hammer …. Used to all be tell tells
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Yeah. It’s one of those things we just don’t know until storms are firing and we see how they’re oriented. As I remember Matthew East saying once, every winter storm in the Upper southeast thunderstorms in the gulf
I think it has slightly more scientific reasoning than other boogeymen but tbh unless Tallahassee has flash flood warnings for training supercells I don’t really think about this very much
If you have 3 small kids in an apt in Athens it’s a no-brainer to go to your in-laws. No matter how “in-law-ry” your in-laws are
did not expect to see this yet here we are. SPC specifically mentions a strong tornado cannot be ruled out if an isolated supercell can develop. 
If you think this is the case, you need to get that phone charged asap
Hrrr doesn’t even start as sleet for any of us so these totals are prob too high
I know we are focused on GA SC NC but Jesus. Look at Texas, LA, AK, MS. Are they going to make it alive????
Tell them no. That’s an easy one.
Just look at the old model runs for yourself. The models that have that convection and race it farther to the east… lead to more initial precip in central SC/eastern NC early on.
