Oconeexman
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I agree with that 100%
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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
NEGaweather
Member
Hmm noticed my NOAA weather report ever so slighted bumped up my overnight Frz rain from a .10 to .30 up to a .20 to .40. Ohh well at 45 and a dewpoint of 27 here and from here on it's supposed to start cooling slowly we shall see
Rain showers likely before 10pm, then freezing rain. Low around 30. East wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New ice accumulation of 0.2 to 0.4 of an inch possible.
Rain showers likely before 10pm, then freezing rain. Low around 30. East wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New ice accumulation of 0.2 to 0.4 of an inch possible.
bncho
Member
For those who are going to get affected by a major ice storm, my thoughts and prayers are with you. Please stay safe.
SWVAwxfan
Member
driveway and road already turning white.
Brent
Member
On the other side of Oklahoma City
My 1.2 inch PWATs in late January of course
Sctvman
Member
UGA closed on Monday
The NWS in Raleigh is bullish on their totals for freezing rain accrual. Practically all of the short range model data I looked at since I got back home show around .25 inches of accumulation. During the 1:00 PM briefing KRDU had a map showing .46 inches of accrual as a probable outcome. I wonder what they were seeing that the models aren't picking up.
Tsappfrog20
Member
I bet you it’s during the dry slot. It’s all the freezing drizzle that they’re counting for wouldn’t surprise me.
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iGRXY
Member
This goes back to what I was saying before. Really good meteorologist know the Synoptics of weather and understand that models are just a tool to help gauge outcomes. But understanding simply the mechanisms of weather is equally as important. The short range models might not be showing a lot of on going precip in their outer ranges but a really good meteorologist knows the biases of said model. They also understand that if you drive warm air over cold air like we are seeing on the short range models, we are going to get more precip than they are showing.
Snowflowxxl
Member
This kid is going to be standard in Atlanta soon. He is very smart and has a huge passion for it.
BufordWX
Member
Latest timeline from FFC:
Btownheel
Member
Guys that have put a career of study and experience into this about over getting bombed on Twitter with “no cause X model says…” by randos. I get it.
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3km and HRRR are certainly not warming run-to-run changes
rburrel2
Member
We might be toast in the upstate. That dry slot really filled in on the last hrrr… and it’s dropping 3/4 inch of liquid by 8am and still coming down hard.
Mpirone12
Member
If you haven’t watched Lanie Pope go off it’s well worth the watch.
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rburrel2
Member
It’s playing catch up to actual temps and dews… I think we probably see another shift on the next run too going off obs.(talking about the hrr)
iGRXY
Member
Like clockwork lol
Brent9
Member
For those in the western upstate, here in York county sc temp the last hour has dropped from 36/37 to now freezing if not below now
Snowflowxxl
Member
20z hrrr uptick
Ron Burgundy
Member
30s starting to spill into NE GA
925s ticking down, 850s ticking up, 700 relatively steady
rusrius
Member
Temps here dropping quickly from 42 to 38.6.
mydoortotheworld
Member
Eesh. I think FFC made the right call with their estimates. We’ll see how it pans out.
gawxnative
Member
I live very close ..I am "between " Monroe and Between...LOLDon’t live there but I’ve been there lol
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Brent
Member
Snow and sleet accumulations increase this afternoon through
Sunday afternoon. Travel will become near impossible at times
during the most intense precipitation Saturday night.
Sunday afternoon. Travel will become near impossible at times
during the most intense precipitation Saturday night.
The event is on our doorstep and we've got differences like this showing up between the modeling. The ICON has literally double or more the precip of the GFS in several locales, pretty insane considering the event has already begun. Makes you just figure all we can do is watch radar and see.
rburrel2
Member
Knew this was coming….
Seems like we have some adjustments on going. I'll be interested to see if 21z HRRR does the same thing.
Most of what I've seen in Nashville is very light it shows up deeper darker on the radar but it's mainly been light. At least up here definitely underperforming.
diamonddave
Member
For Grovetown(10 miles west of Augusta) Peachtree NWS service shows in the .25-.5 shading and Columbia NWS shows us in the .1-.25 shaded area.
Been trying to decide if I want take my wife and kid down the road to stay with our friends who have gas log heat and hot water. Normally not an ice amount I’m overly concerned with because I’ve been in way worse but we still have a ton of damaged trees and leaning trees along the road ways from Hurricane Helene so it won’t take as much ice to get some of these trees.
Any one have thoughts on this area?
Been trying to decide if I want take my wife and kid down the road to stay with our friends who have gas log heat and hot water. Normally not an ice amount I’m overly concerned with because I’ve been in way worse but we still have a ton of damaged trees and leaning trees along the road ways from Hurricane Helene so it won’t take as much ice to get some of these trees.
Any one have thoughts on this area?
Sctvman
Member
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Plus it was off on temperatures near and around here by at least 4-5 degrees, I believe (not 100% sure because of the Z timing). What a silly model.
We'll see how this goes overnight though on cooling.
Someone posted this early and figured would share it again... If your Atlanta/Points west this is a great resource to monitor the cold air moving in from the East. It should let you know just how fast and strong that CAD is as night goes on we shall see the HRRR recent runs tell me it has to be watched if cold air rolls in strong HRRR uptick in qpf is not a great scenario for ATL
rburrel2
Member
Holy smokes… latest hrrr corrected dew points 10 degrees lower in central NC compared to the previous run. Kept temps the same or lowered a tad.
WXinCanton
Member
bravo to him, way to own it
Appreciate your response! On a more local scale, can it help? Just as an example, as the crow flies I’m a few miles from downtown Chapel Hill, which is about 500 ft ASL on a hill compared to IMBY which is in the low 300s ASL. I assume given I am really close to DT CH that we have the same air mass depth overhead, so I would imagine MBY would have a slightly better chance at hanging onto sleet given the extra 150ish feet to the surface compared to at UNC’s campus? I doubt it would matter much, anyways, but just am curious to understand it, haha!
Heelyes
Member
24/-6 
Lowered for NAM, is this a trend???
