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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

Tsappfrog20 said:
I bet you it’s during the dry slot. It’s all the freezing drizzle that they’re counting for wouldn’t surprise me.


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Maybe but tell me this. How many times have we had drizzle or light rain even, all day and it usually totals only a few hundredths or a .1 at the most. Drizzle isn't going to give us an additional .25. They got to be erring on side of caution here
 
Just some back of the napkin math that you guys can do for your locations. Right now I’m averaging around an inch of precip on the globals (I think those are more accurate right now than the short range as far precip goes) before the big band comes through. Worst case scenario I only use around 0.25” of liquid on sleet ~ 0.75” of sleet. Best case I probably don’t use much more than 0.4” of liquid on sleet which is around ~ 1.2” of sleet. That leaves me between 0.6-0.75” of likely very efficient rate driven precip. If I conservatively say I’ll only accrue 80% of that (I think it’ll be closer to 100%) I’d accrue 0.48-0.6” of ZR. When the big line comes through. All of the models have it at 0.5” of liquid. I’d say we’d accrue that somewhere between 30-50% or roughly 0.15-0.25 of additional accrual of ice. That’s how I’m coming to my conclusions that I’d likely be around 0.63-0.85” of ice. Likely meeting in the middle around 0.75” here.
 
weather bubba said:
The NWS in Raleigh is bullish on their totals for freezing rain accrual. Practically all of the short range model data I looked at since I got back home show around .25 inches of accumulation. During the 1:00 PM briefing KRDU had a map showing .46 inches of accrual as a probable outcome. I wonder what they were seeing that the models aren't picking up.
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NBM shows .3 max, my guess and it's just a guess, the HRRR makes them a little nervous. So lean high end just in case
 
Mitch West said:


Seems like we have some adjustments on going. I'll be interested to see if 21z HRRR does the same thing.
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If you're using they Hrrrrr beyond 6 hours, I can stone cold guarantee you will see adjustments to those periods every subsequent run, and sometimes spectacularly so.
 
diamonddave said:
For Grovetown(10 miles west of Augusta) Peachtree NWS service shows in the .25-.5 shading and Columbia NWS shows us in the .1-.25 shaded area.

Been trying to decide if I want take my wife and kid down the road to stay with our friends who have gas log heat and hot water. Normally not an ice amount I’m overly concerned with because I’ve been in way worse but we still have a ton of damaged trees and leaning trees along the road ways from Hurricane Helene so it won’t take as much ice to get some of these trees.

Any one have thoughts on this area?
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I would say follow your instincts. The weather is supposedly looking better for us but we don't know for sure and it might be windy. A lot of people might lose power because of the damaged trees from wind even if we don't get much ice. Helene was really bad.
 
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