Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

[TigerSnow]

3k nam for clt, would be best case scenario. Glad we have the nam on our side here with ptypes and thermals vs it showing 1” freezing rain like the hrrrView attachment 188488

Are the ice pellets 1:1 there, or is there a different ratio for sleet?

 

[BHS1975]

I'm impressed by the negative mid teen dews in Va

CAD on steroids. I've never seen one this strong.

 

[tractor girl]

Tough cutoff forecast now for Atlanta. Mets are going to take a lot of heat if this is what happens. Yikes. Not sure if this automated or what View attachment 188490

Imagine the hell they would have received if they did not warn everyone in advance and and they had +0.5 in ice on trees everywhere in Metro Atlanta Sunday morning
Its gotta suck to be a pro tier meteorologist having to make these calls

 

[ATLHokie]

Tough cutoff forecast now for Atlanta. Mets are going to take a lot of heat if this is what happens. Yikes. Not sure if this automated or what View attachment 188490

You show this map from FFC and the map from the prior comment with 2x the ice is the one on their homepage. Consistent.

 

[Branch]

Tough cutoff forecast now for Atlanta. Mets are going to take a lot of heat if this is what happens. Yikes. Not sure if this automated or what View attachment 188490

Really backed off ice to nothing in my area. CAD never makes its way in. Maybe it’s a bit weaker than previously thought?

 

[JalenW25]

Whatever that is over Harnett County southeast of Sanford isn't reaching the ground.

No it's not the nearest METAR station in Lillington has the dew point at 4.1 degrees so it's wayyyyyy too dry for that to reach the ground.

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[FortMillSCWx]

B Rad coming in with a great discussion on the lift mechanisms over us that will create the moisture. "Don't buy into the dry models".

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Tough cutoff forecast now for Atlanta. Mets are going to take a lot of heat if this is what happens. Yikes. Not sure if this automated or what View attachment 188490

That seems about right. Unless the wedge overperforms substantially more than is currently forecast, it wouldn't surprise me one bit if they drop at least a row of counties on the southern end from a WSW to an advisory.

 

[WolfpackHomer91]

Roast me if you will idc.

VA (6-12” / Maybe a Glaze)

I-40 N/NW (4-6 SN/IP .10 - .2” ICE)

I-85 to I-40 N/NW (2-4 SN/IP .25 - .35” ICE)

Commerce GA - Wadesboro NC
(1-2 SN/IP .5 -.6” ICE)

This is a non event imo South of Chester SC. Maybe 1” Sleet / .1” FRZN. (This is not a historical CAD winning area)

Obviously I’m higher on SN/IP …. But I’ve said it for days I’m not changing now….. these astronomical ICE numbers just historically won’t occur, sleet will win out 90% of the time this will be no different. Also, accounting for another potential 25-50 mile Southern shift.

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[Chazwin]

Initial batch of moisture was always going to have a high chance of being light snow as the colum cools with evaporational cooling kicking in

Yeah but i didnt see anything last night about any precip arriving this early

 

[WxGSO]

Are the ice pellets 1:1 there, or is there a different ratio for sleet?

Sleet can range from 2:1 up to 5:1 depending on temps, humidity, etc. I usually just do a ballpark 3:1 ratio.

 

[JalenW25]

I'm impressed by the negative mid teen dews in Va

It's reached Northern NC now dew point between Oxford and Henderson of -10.1 degrees. Updated 10 minutes ago

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[cyclogent]

Pretty sure the WRF-ARW2 is having a "hold my beer" moment. this seems just a bit overdone lol.

 

[Chazwin]

Are the ice pellets 1:1 there, or is there a different ratio for sleet?

Sleet typically is a 3:1 rato. So that chart would indicate close to 1.25” of sleet

 

[TigerSnow]

Pretty sure the WRF-ARW2 is having a "hold my beer" moment. this seems just a bit overdone lol.

View attachment 188496


View attachment 188507

Does this have a sleet map, to my untrained eye that is just freezing rain right?

 

[xshare]

Does this have a sleet map, to my untrained eye that is just freezing rain right?

The “holes” in the ZR are sleet, yes

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

wedge wedging. Wind right off the meat of the meat right now. We are giving cold rain a new meaning this weekend. Y’all ain’t never seen cr like this

 

[Nomanslandva]

Thank you. Looks bad for my family in Richmond.

 

[Branch]

Pretty sure the WRF-ARW2 is having a "hold my beer" moment. this seems just a bit overdone lol.

View attachment 188496


View attachment 188507

How reliable is this model? Seems way off.

 

[Mahomeless]

Pretty sure the WRF-ARW2 is having a "hold my beer" moment. this seems just a bit overdone lol.

View attachment 188496


View attachment 188507

Yes that ain’t happening in east AL

 

[JQPublic]

Roast me if you will idc.

VA (6-12” / Maybe a Glaze)

I-40 N/NW (4-6 SN/IP .10 - .2” ICE)

I-85 to I-40 N/NW (2-4 SN/IP .25 - .35” ICE)

Commerce GA - Wadesboro NC
(1-2 SN/IP .5 -.6” ICE)

This is a non event imo South of Chester SC. Maybe 1” Sleet / .1” FRZN. (This is not a historical CAD winning area)

Obviously I’m higher on SN/IP …. But I’ve said it for days I’m not changing now….. these astronomical ICE numbers just historically won’t occur, sleet will win out 90% of the time this will be no different. Also, accounting for another potential 25-50 mile Southern shift.

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I understand you’re not forecasting for further east, but you should still not have your line just go straight up at the end. You completely omitted the impact of the ice into Chatham County and Eastward

 

[blueheels2]

My family is asking me what the models are saying this morning and I’m like

Yeah I’m in Rolesville NC and I have a generator. Tryin got figure out if I need to bring our parents plus pets over for the duration of this storm. Seems like we could get nothing up .75” of freezing rain. What do I do with that lol.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

As terrible as ice storms are, they’re rare. Especially one with high accrual. I’ve realized I don’t have to like it but I’ve got to respect it for what it is. Mother Nature culling the heard

 

[jrips27]

Tough cutoff forecast now for Atlanta. Mets are going to take a lot of heat if this is what happens. Yikes. Not sure if this automated or what View attachment 188490

Map has now updated lol

 

[Ugafanofweather]

Map has now updated lol
View attachment 188516

Thank god my power lines are underground here in Cumming. More worried about my parents but they did cut down most of their big Pines.

Sorry thought I was in the banter thread

 

[EmersonGA]

Maybe I read the timestamps wrong but all of the models didn’t show the wedge really locking into Georgia until the afternoon and late afternoon at that. Just watch and the dewpoints will be creeping downward from the NE all day for yall.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Maybe I read the timestamps wrong but all of the models didn’t show the wedge really locking into Georgia until the afternoon and late afternoon at that. Just watch and the dewpoints will be creeping downward from the NE all day for yall.

Correct. Idk why some are worried about being in the mid 40s atm. Nothing matters until tonight

 

[weatherfide]

Why would they do that now? Isn’t the CAD really not supposed to get going till later today?

Maybe because the coldest/driest air is all the way up in VA and we only have 12 hours to get it here. It ain't gonna happen.

Yes that ain’t happening in east AL

4 hours after it's initialization and it has me at 44/26 and I actually have 44.8/30.9. It is not accurate with dewpoints, it seems and that's why it drops the temps so much.

 

[J.C.]

Map has now updated lol
View attachment 188516

I was about to ask you were you pulled that prior one from because I couldn't find it.

 

[Ron Burgundy]

Map has now updated lol
View attachment 188516

Welp. Back to Home Depot…

 

[superjames1992]

So many uncertainties for a lot of us with uncertain liquid equivalent as well as highly uncertain P-types. This will be an interesting storm for sure.

 

[J.C.]

Maybe I read the timestamps wrong but all of the models didn’t show the wedge really locking into Georgia until the afternoon and late afternoon at that. Just watch and the dewpoints will be creeping downward from the NE all day for yall.

Yeah, even my local along with several other Cobb folks, we aren't supposed to go sub-freezing until midnight or 1am.

 

[Makeitsnow]

Tough cutoff forecast now for Atlanta. Mets are going to take a lot of heat if this is what happens. Yikes. Not sure if this automated or what View attachment 188490

I see the map is updated...which is good. Atlantas icestorms that occured at 30 to 32 at the surface have had 950mb temps that look like this... This is valid for 12z sunday. And of course the high res models keep it until late in the day.

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

Yeah, even my local along with several other Cobb folks, we aren't supposed to go sub-freezing until midnight or 1am.

It looks Marietta is forecast to be at or below 32 for maybe 10 hours ? Looking at the hourly weather forecast for the NWS. But I guess it just depends on how strong the wedge is.

 

[FortMillSCWx]

You can check the models and verifitcation. Point Cedar, Arkansas: 5 inches of sleet

 

[LittleMountain]

Seems like some are calling for a “bust” in the Carolina’s with QPF steadily decreasing. Folks here agree?

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Seems like some are calling for a “bust” in the Carolina’s with QPF steadily decreasing. Folks here agree?

 

[superjames1992]

Seems like some are calling for a “bust” in the Carolina’s with QPF steadily decreasing. Folks here agree?

No. But we had people here calling a winter storm with 1”+ QPF a “nuisance event” after all.

It wouldn’t shock me if the higher totals don’t verify, but this will not be a nuisance event.

 

[J.C.]

It looks Marietta is forecast to be at or below 32 for maybe 10 hours ? Looking at the hourly weather forecast for the NWS. But I guess it just depends on how strong the wedge is.

You are correct +/- an hour either direction.

 

[TigerSnow]

Seems like some are calling for a “bust” in the Carolina’s with QPF steadily decreasing. Folks here agree?

.25” of ice and some wind can be a bad recipe.