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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

iGRXY said:
While we are sitting at -7 to -10 925’s yes. We don’t stay at those temps very long. Those quickly turn into -1 to -5. That’s cold enough to stop a deeper warm nose with 850’s at +8 to +11
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I think we will have temps supportive of sleet until 7-8am. At which point potentially around half of our qpf has fallen. But, we’ll see! I don’t feel confident about any of this. Could easily be almost all freezing rain.
 
Mitch West said:
I think you are to hyper focused on temperatures. I personally think the NAM is gonna win this one from an overall standpoint. No model is gonna do great here. I think it’s important to look at it all. Temperature/moisture/precip type. Who wins this battle as a whole? Great storm to look back on.
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Temperatures are going to be extremely important here
 
BullCityWx said:
It depends on how they align. If they are perpendicular, they can sometimes enhance moisture. If they were like a straight line across the gulf, it can cut them off. A professional can fact check me but thats how I remember it going.
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If the whole batch of moisture is shaped like an upside down letter V. Then its aiding,helping and sign moisture will be more pronounced.
If its flat, west to east moving, but not upside down letter V shape. It has better chance robbing you of moisture upstream.
 
Mitch West said:
I think you are to hyper focused on temperatures. I personally think the NAM is gonna win this one from an overall standpoint. No model is gonna do great here. I think it’s important to look at it all. Temperature/moisture/precip type. Who wins this battle as a whole? Great storm to look back on.
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As someone hyper focused on the front end thump it’s suspiciously dry compared to other models in my neck of the woods, as well as bringing sleet line in fastest

Watching it like “I’m onto you” with narrow eyes
 
Ross said:
As someone hyper focused on the front end thump it’s suspiciously dry compared to other models in my neck of the woods, as well as bringing sleet line in fastest

Watching it like “I’m onto you” with narrow eyes
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Yeh at this point who knows. Temperatures like @jackendrickwx said are huge. Gonna be a fun one to look back on & see who did it best.
 
Mitch West said:
Yeh at this point who knows. Temperatures like @jackendrickwx said are huge. Gonna be a fun one to look back on & see who did it best.
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Got a fun thing to throw into

Was looking at op model trends from when we first latched onto this event

The Canadian killed it. Called northward tilt much earlier than anyone else. This is when we were all (me) clowning it for unserious. Post for another day
 


Ik Ik …. “Soundings ” but remember the other day when this “Front Thump” was all FRZN up to like Central KY ? Yea just a hair of a correction south over the last 48. I honestly don’t think anyone in VA sees more than .1” FRZN. And NC MAYBE someone does for .45”. I highly doubt ANYONE is going over .55” across our board with this as fas ICE. We’ve seen this a million times…. It will be sleet.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
rburrel2 said:
That closed contour high is still there at 9am. No model had this. All the models have our high pressure settling way further northeast later today. Not sure if it’s meaningful or not, but it can’t be a bad sign if you want colder low levels, imo.

View attachment 188474View attachment 188475
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Looks like the high is weaker than modeled by a smidgen.
 
BullCityWx said:
12k NAM too warm and too high on dewpoint at TDF - 23/5(actual) vs 26/7
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Nam is running about 6 degrees too warm on dewpoints currently in northeast ga into sc as a whole. That will equal about 2 degrees difference if it held. As expected that falls within the 1 to 3 degree error range i've been beating a dead horse about. These dewpoint differences matter.
 
Here are progged temps as of 1AM tonight for NE ATL from coldest to warmest: let’s see how they end up doing

6Z Icon 29 often at/near coldest with CMC
6Z NAM 33
6Z Euro 34
6Z GFS 35
0Z CMC 36
0Z UK 37 often warmest

Icon 29
IMG_7515.png

NAM 33
IMG_7522.png

Euro 34
IMG_7514.png

GFS 35
IMG_7513.png

CMC 36
IMG_7516.png

UK 37
IMG_7517.png
 
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rburrel2 said:
That closed contour high is still there at 9am. No model had this. All the models have our high pressure settling way further northeast later today. Not sure if it’s meaningful or not, but it can’t be a bad sign if you want colder low levels, imo.

View attachment 188474View attachment 188475
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apologies if it's already been mentioned but Been wondering if we could see a meso high pinch off after the carolinas/va saturates...further locking in the cold air from scouring out tomorrow. This feature has caused many a model to be wrong in wedge erosion.
 
Makeitsnow said:
Nam is running about 6 degrees too warm on dewpoints currently in northeast ga into sc as a whole. That will equal about 2 degrees difference if it held. As expected that falls within the 1 to 3 degree error range i've been beating a dead horse about. These dewpoint differences matter.
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I know latest HRRR is +3-4 Degrees too high on Surface temp but good on dewpoints for my area at this time
NAM is +2 too high on Dews and pretty close to temps

Little measurements who knows downstream impact
 
Ross said:
if I look at one more model run for this storm I will need to be institutionalized and I’m sure many feel similarly
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My family is asking me what the models are saying this morning and I’m like

Chris Farley Idk GIF
 
rburrel2 said:
That closed contour high is still there at 9am. No model had this. All the models have our high pressure settling way further northeast later today. Not sure if it’s meaningful or not, but it can’t be a bad sign if you want colder low levels, imo.

View attachment 188474View attachment 188475
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It's windy here as the cold air pours into the area N wind gusting to 30 at times.
 
Wedge discussion from this morning’s FFC disco (posted around 6:45 am EST):

Forecasting the Wedge:

We have talked a lot in previous Area Forecast Discussions (AFDs)
about the wedge/cold air damming footprint and strength, and its
impact on the severity of this ice storm. A skilled blend of high-
resolution model guidance was used to arrive at the temperature
and dew point forecasts through the short term period, to capture
the staying power of the wedge as precip reinforces its
characteristic cold, surface-based airmass. The result is a
forecast largely unchanged from yesterday afternoon`s shift -- the
wedge and associated freezing rain (and some sleet) spreading
southward and westward tonight through Sunday morning. The wedge
should begin to erode along its southern and western fringes on
Sunday afternoon and evening as Gulf low pressure shifts
northeastward across the area. That said, for parts of northeast
Georgia in the core of the wedge airmass, temperatures may not get
much above freezing (if at all) on Sunday afternoon. This may
include cities/towns such as Dahlonega, Dawsonville, Gainesville,
Suwanee, Lawrenceville, and Athens.
 
The best part of the "chase" for us is to see verfications and support of "your favorite model". Upstream radar ect. Fingers crossed to getting a punch of snow to start. Then the debate can really begin on the model wars.
 
Ron Burgundy said:
Wedge discussion from this morning’s FFC disco (posted around 6:45 am EST):

Forecasting the Wedge:

We have talked a lot in previous Area Forecast Discussions (AFDs)
about the wedge/cold air damming footprint and strength, and its
impact on the severity of this ice storm. A skilled blend of high-
resolution model guidance was used to arrive at the temperature
and dew point forecasts through the short term period, to capture
the staying power of the wedge as precip reinforces its
characteristic cold, surface-based airmass. The result is a
forecast largely unchanged from yesterday afternoon`s shift -- the
wedge and associated freezing rain (and some sleet) spreading
southward and westward tonight through Sunday morning. The wedge
should begin to erode along its southern and western fringes on
Sunday afternoon and evening as Gulf low pressure shifts
northeastward across the area. That said, for parts of northeast
Georgia in the core of the wedge airmass, temperatures may not get
much above freezing (if at all) on Sunday afternoon. This may
include cities/towns such as Dahlonega, Dawsonville, Gainesville,
Suwanee, Lawrenceville, and Athens.
Click to expand...
FFC is also re-introducing sleet here with accumulations over half an inch now. Seems in line with modeling but we have to see verification as the column moistens.
 
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