I can see that, and I have Winter Weather Advisory while Lumberton has an Ice Storm Warning (two different NWS offices, RAH vs ILM)
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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
It tends to do slight adjusts towards the Cam's the last 48 hours.
Sometimes it caves in a very noticable way the last 24 hours.
Which is what appears to be taking place here!
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
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Alan Huffman’s call.
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Tsappfrog20
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Allan’s New map. Here also has select cites that he gives his thoughts on. I can share this thoughts on other places just ask and if he did them I’ll share
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Wulfer
Member
Not sure im buying G Morristown already dropped temp by 2-3 degrees tonight. Due to no cloud cover?
NBM-based: this is the low end. Low end still gets a quarter inch in western Upstate and NE GA!
FFC just sent this to out to media and emergency management partners
Thrasher Fan
Member
Interesting wording used for that moderate area... .25" is the threshold for a Ice Storm Warning.
Just saying they must have pretty decent confidence in a higher end scenario in order to put this out there the day before. Can’t wait to hear
BufordWX
Member
Things are about to kick off out west. The system is finally here.
I was interested why we got issued a Winter Storm Warning instead of an Ice Storm Warning so I did some digging. It seems that you only get issued an Ice Storm Warning when the NWS is expecting ONLY freezing rain. If your area has a chance for sleet or snow, no matter the freezing rain threat you get the WSW.
rusrius
Member
Winter Weather Advisories have been extended almost to the SC coast.
rusrius
Member
Was just saying that as well
Brandon10
Member
Obvioisly its HRRR. Once again through 15 hours all players look more south
It is fascinating stuff from all the Weather offices and probably collaborating and building a image of a event off of modeling/first hand knowledge and live readings (which we aren't necessarily read in on as hobbyist) This ones a tough one to call for sure
that's interesting because nws gsp is forecasting 1-2" of sleet for my area yet I am still under an Ice Storm Warning lol. Is that just a raleigh thing or is that standard for every NWS office?
gawxnative
Member
Just my thought... could they be terming it "higher impact" due to the winds which are much higher than our normal "ice storm/sleet" events here
Flo
Member
Freezing rain only I believe
256wx
Member
What's the most trustworthy model at this range? HRRR?
RGEM, HRRR, NAM, FV3 (ICON and CMC also have a decent hold on this I believe)
probably something like that or gsp broke the rules a little so they could convey the severity of the ZR.
That’s what I’ve always thought, GSP put me in an Ice Storm Warning with them forecasting around an inch of sleet
Yeah man 18z HRRR is a a big jump south
It's got wintry mix down to 30-40 miles further south in MS and a finger of wintry stuff already approaching N. GA border at 13z Saturday
We may also reach Winter Storm Warning criteria on sleet alone (I think that's just 0.5", right?).
Flo
Member
Looks like the south trend is confirmed
You’re correct. That’s why I was surprised GSP put their whole area in an Ice Storm warning, including locations they have forecast 1-2”+ of sleet. My guess if that they feel the public attention needs to be focused on the potential power disruption with extreme cold coming in after the storm
Yeah it's not massive in the grand scheme of things but you can tell the HRRR has tighten the gradient up and is continuing to flatten out and a little more progressive compared to recent runs...It's about 2 degrees colder as well on Saturday at 18z... 12z had ATL at 42 and 18z is at 40 and pretty much same at any given point between Birmingham up to Carolinas
DylanWx
Member
A friend called them and said we may see one once the event starts. Uncertainties remain with how much freezing rain and sleet may cut down.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
I read in Obs thread that the HP did verify 1050 this AM
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Pops
Member
is hrrr or rap better?
I looked at the criteria, and yea. Ice storm warning when frz rain predominant ptype. Can't argue with that. 
Still, local WFOs have their quirks. Like when RAH issues a Winter Weather Advisory for black ice when the others rarely do.
Still, local WFOs have their quirks. Like when RAH issues a Winter Weather Advisory for black ice when the others rarely do.
beanskip
Member
18z HRRR really pulling down the CAD vs. 12z run in N.C. Piedmont. It's either fast or 5 degrees colder.
Shadow of the Apps
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Btownheel
Member
Models coming around to what nerds here had progged for a few days. You don’t slam a LP into extreme CAD like that. Path of least resistance and all.
Good news for the sleet crowd in much of the forum.
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Good news for the sleet crowd in much of the forum.
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Thrasher Fan
Member
Something I haven't seen much talk about is the wind speeds towards the tail end of the event and then post event on Monday/Tuesday. Readings from the models are at a threshold that would prevent linesmen from using their boom trucks. Anyone who loses power should factor that into their amounts of time without.
Brandon10
Member
Definitely. More south back in Mississippi, and Alabama. Still looks too correct back north in the carolinas and Virginia.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
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You just named every model that’s not the GFS btw. Nobody is paying attention to the GFS I promise you that