Hope you’re right but concerning that the shirt range models have all trended to an earlier switch from sleet to freezing rain
Looks like we know who wins now…
It was sorta similar specifically on the qpf the Temps were colder and more enforced CAD but not as aggressive as the AIEURO... AI EURO/GFS/ICON are similar in CAD now
Seems it picked up the pace a bit, too. Noticed that at 12z that we are trending towards a quicker arrival of precip (which had been going in the other direction).
I think the only one that does that is the RGEM, the other short range models I've seen still have tons of sleet through Sunday morning.
No, the regular Euro doesn’t do CAD well.
I have noted this several times now but you have to keep in mind that with large dewpoint depressions ahead of precip, the models often underestimate temps by 1 to 3 degrees after we wetbulb down. The only time this doesn't apply is if the dry air is located right at the surface with moist/warm air right on top/the dry layer is very shallow. Needless to say that is not the case here. I can't speak on the ais because i don't have experience with following them but the traditional models it's almost a certainty in my book.
it absolutely does not. i have no idea where that idea come from.
Generally speaking the op EURO is has a warm bias in CAD
Wedging back up into TN lol
Hope they mention more sleet chances for the higher qpf areas. Dangerous storm with huge implications for sure.
I feel for you… as you know it is not unusual to see the wedge entrenched that far south and west. I am from Carroll Co and many times we are right on that edge also. I have shared with friends and family in Carroll to be prepared for losing power but the trends seem to have lowered the risk for them. But it has been a roller coaster.
Yeah I'm in Paulding a little further North and East of you guys the CAD can at time stretch all the way into Alabama and at times just reach ATL. I listen to the Carolina guys mostly on CAD and it seems this should be a very strong one. We will definitely need to keep a eye on temps coming East to West tomorrow from the CAD the Meso page is really helpful with that and see how much precip is building up south. If conditions like ICON/EURO AI play out it can surprise people even all the way down into south of I-20
I’ve been saying the Euro has been garbage at CAD and forecasting this system for the past week. I’m glad yall are on board now
The last time I remember this happening was 2004 ish?
For some reason, RAH tends to issue Winter Storm Warnings instead of Ice Storm Warnings even when the criteria supports the ISW. I just haven’t seen many of them issued over the years (nor Freezing Rain Advisories, now defunct). Probably just their WFO preference. I wouldn’t read too much into it.
January 2005 I believe. I remember models locking onto the idea two-three days out it seemed.
That's the one. It just follows the Great Valley up.
I moved to the Chatt area 6 years ago. I've never see a wrap around CAD modeled like this. So there is precedent for this?
And they are probably still playing catch up all the way up until the event occurs.
