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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

BlueRidgeFolklore said:
Sounds like WNC during Helene. If I learned a few things from that time that will buy you a few days, it's this:
  • Keep a battery powered radio on hand. A lot of good information gets put out on the radio when all other lines of comms are down.
  • Keep some cash on hand. Cards didn't work when communications went down.
  • Fill up your cars and if you have an extra gas can, keep one filled up. I ran out of gas trying to find gas.
  • Go grab some dry foods for easy storage and easy cooking. Not bread and milk.
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FYI:

If your on well water: Make sure you have water. Fill up tub, fill up 5 gallon buckets leave in bathroom for flushing. Takes 3-4 gallons per flush. Men outside / unless. Be smart

Your frozen food is good. Use ice chest, outside ice snow to perserve:

Full gas tank is way to go warm up inside car and charge phones. Hopefully you have a good heat source. Also way to grill/ cook food.

A Generator to run well pump/ water heater/ occasional lamp/ tv is nice. They will run a few space heaters, maybe one oven eye. But you have to pic an choose, unless you got a 10-15000 watt beast.

I've spent a week plus without power 3 seperate times : Thankfully due to winter wx and not hurricanes,. #1 was a 23 year old and learned valuable lessons. Had to take a hike through knee deep snow over 2 miles to get to somewhere with all the things mentioned above. So think and plan ahead.
And if you loose power, leave spigot in house furthest from where water comes in your house dripping. Pipes will freeze fast on a 0 degree night in a house without heat source.
 
Wow -- between 66 and 72 hours it goes from a massive shield of frozen precip covering 4-5 states to a squall line of rain.
 
GaWx said:
I’m quite concerned for an elderly relative in Fayetteville, NC who requires a plug in oxygenator. I’m keeping her updated on the wx.

Any educated guesses as to whether or not that area will likely have widespread power outages? Any responses would be greatly appreciated.
@Webberweather53 since that’s your hometown and you’ve got a great knowledge of their history
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Those areas could get widespread power problems with up to an inch of zr
 
GaWx said:
I’m quite concerned for an elderly relative in Fayetteville, NC who requires a plug in oxygenator. I’m keeping her updated on the wx.

Any educated guesses as to whether or not that area will likely have widespread power outages? Any responses would be greatly appreciated.
@Webberweather53 since that’s your hometown and you’ve got a great knowledge of their history
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Hi. Looks like at least 0.25-0.5” of ice or so in Fayetteville. Definitely would be rather worried about power outages
 
All frozen for the major NC metros, and it's not quite over yet. Also shows how with this dry slot idea, small changes make a big difference. This was south by a bit from the last run and the sensible impacts across NC were hugely different. I still don't favor the NAM, anyways, but interesting to see it trend towards other modeling.

1769114677821.png
 
beanskip said:
Wow -- between 66 and 72 hours it goes from a massive shield of frozen precip covering 4-5 states to a squall line of rain.
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That is a recipe for disaster in NC if we get any modest gusts of wind at the tail end of this storm. Trees are going to be falling down left and right
 
superjames1992 said:
Massive changes on the 18z NAM, it's shellacking central NC with a sleetstorm after the dry slot on the 12z run.
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All of us have known it for well over a day. A lifetime of climo teaches it. With CAD this strong, north and west of 85 is getting a full on epic concrete job. May even be north of 64 but I’m *super* confident re: 85.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
GaWx said:
I’m quite concerned for an elderly relative in Fayetteville, NC who requires a plug in oxygenator. I’m keeping her updated on the wx.

Any educated guesses as to whether or not that area will likely have widespread power outages? Any responses would be greatly appreciated.
@Webberweather53 since that’s your hometown and you’ve got a great knowledge of their history
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I'm relatively close (Dunn/Lillington) and I have the same wonders. I'm prepared to lose power for a few days but it's effectively a gamble of whether we have catastrophic ZR or if we make an early switch to rain, or both (rain after damage is done). I don't have a great barometer for ice storms here but just across the line in Sampson Co I didn't have power for 6 days after Matthew in 2016. Duke Energy will take a lot longer to get out to rural areas than the electric co-ops like South River EMC will.

I'm expecting widespread (at minimum scattered) power outages especially with all the tall pines throughout the sandhills
 
Webberweather53 said:
What scares me about this ice storm in nc is how strong the warm nose is.

Normally we can cool the low level cad some enough to avoid freezing rain, but that may not be the case here quite as much. Could be a much tougher battle this time around

In all my years of religiously tracking these winter storms, I have never a warm nose this strong on the models.

I had to go back over 30 years to find an event (Feb 1994) with something comparable.

Not sure how much a drier trend would help us here. My guess is not a lot in the ice/freezing rain department because we’re trading volume of precip for ice accrual efficiency.
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Just getting home from work and getting caught up. Webb I will say that February 1994 storm still managed to have about 8-10 hours of sleet at my parents house in Concord that accumulated to about 1.5”. It was a different set up than this obviously in that the CAD pushed in after the precip started
 
A great FFC afternoon discussion- https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=FFC&product=AFD&glossary=1

A snippet
"Subsequent tweaks (and eventual upgrades) to our Winter Storm Watch
are likely to come either overnight tonight or tomorrow. The broader
picture -- a potentially major ice storm across portions of north
and central Georgia -- is becoming more and more certain, but fine
details that may determine the magnitude of impacts are likely still
to come as this event enters the short term. Continue to work on
preparations if you are in or close to the aforementioned areas, and
endeavor to be ready to enact your preparations, and postpone
travel, by Saturday when conditions begin to deteriorate."
 
jrips27 said:
A great FFC afternoon discussion- https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=FFC&product=AFD&glossary=1

A snippet
"Subsequent tweaks (and eventual upgrades) to our Winter Storm Watch
are likely to come either overnight tonight or tomorrow. The broader
picture -- a potentially major ice storm across portions of north
and central Georgia -- is becoming more and more certain, but fine
details that may determine the magnitude of impacts are likely still
to come as this event enters the short term. Continue to work on
preparations if you are in or close to the aforementioned areas, and
endeavor to be ready to enact your preparations, and postpone
travel, by Saturday when conditions begin to deteriorate."
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I also thought this paragraph was important:

" The extent of the cold airmass/wedge. Pattern recognition, past
experience/expertise, and theory point to the strength and staying
power as the wedge builds in, but ice accumulations in locales
roughly along an arc extending from Rome to Newnan to Augusta remain
highly uncertain/on a fine line meteorologically. Current thinking
is that low-end (but impactful) ice accumulations are possible over
the course of the day Sunday for the aforementioned areas, but
intensity and location will depend heavily on the southwestern
progression of the cool dome. Additionally, a stronger wedge will
impact upper-bounds of ice accumulation, which are likely to be
situated within the core of the cold air -- from the Northern Metro
to Athens and points north and east."
 
beanskip said:
Seems like the 18z runs are kind of wonky -- precip fields seem different, but not in any kind of trendy way. 18z ICON kind of looks like it's pooping out of precip at 60 hours and then at 66 ... somebody cuts the lights on -- yikes!
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Looks like it's a little slower than last run.
 
I mean everything I’ve seen shows 1”+ frozen through the upstate and up into the Piedmont. Even the long range NAM. I grabbed 3 more gallons of non ethanol this afternoon and did a little more prepping at the farm
 
There will be people on the eastern slopes of the nc/sc line at 2500/3000ft who will see 2+ inches of ice. IMO

1. They’re going to be like 10 degrees at the surface for most of the storm
2. They won’t get any sleet bc they don’t have that extra 2000ft of air to freeze falling water droplets.
3. They are the epicenter of the precip maxima and they always overperform on qpf. I bet they get 3+ inches of liquid.

Thoughts?
 
rburrel2 said:
There will be people on the eastern slopes of the nc/sc line at 2500/3000ft who will see 2+ inches of ice. IMO

1. They’re going to be like 10 degrees at the surface for most of the storm
2. They won’t get any sleet bc they don’t have that extra 2000ft of air to freeze falling water droplets.
3. They are the epicenter of the precip maxima and they always overperform on qpf. I bet they get 3+ inches of liquid.

Thoughts?
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There is pretty absurd potential along the SC escarpment, far NE GA, and the Highlands NC vicinity.
 
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