Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

[rburrel2]

Even if half the liquid falls as sleet for the upstate… I don’t think that saves us from damaging ice. But there’s for sure going to be a one or two county band that is pre dominantly ice the whole time and amounts will potentially be over 1 inch accrual in spots. I’m thinking elbert/abbeville/laurens

 

[Mpirone12]

View attachment 187700

My god. 2 inches QPF over Guilford county. I pray this ends up sleet otherwise we are screwed. Probably screwed either way !


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[jackendrickwx]

OG vs AI on QPF in the Upstate.

 

[jrips27]

 

[packfan98]

 

[Makeitsnow]

Even if half the liquid falls as sleet for the upstate… I don’t think that saves us from damaging ice. But there’s for sure going to be a one or two county band that is pre dominantly ice the whole time and amounts will potentially be over 1 inch accrual in spots. I’m thinking elbert/abbeville/laurens

I'm right next door to elbert county and as i noted earlier i'm hopeful i will stay sleet through at least mid morning sunday. As you said, it won't save me but it sure beats double that amount.

btw...wth is this from gsp and ffc in their zone forecast? ffc has me with a high of 37 sunday while gsp has 35 in elbert/hard counties...34 in greenwood.. Pigs will fly before that happens. Mind boggling.

 

[iwantsouthernsnow123]

Right in the red there. Already preparing for the worst. I'm just hoping at this point that CAD is underdone and it ends up being a sleet bomb rather than a FZR mess.

 

[SnowNiner]

I'm surprised a warning hasn't been issued today for the CLT area. It's less than 48 hours away.

 

[KyloG]

View attachment 187705

So sick…has like 24 hours of freezing rain across the area

 

[packfan98]

So sick…has like 24 hours of freezing rain across the area

View attachment 187707

We are all praying for as much sleet as we can get! Hopefully the system isn’t as amped up and the mid layers aren’t too bad.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

This will prob be CJ’s feather in the cap

 

[BufordWX]

For anyone who didn’t watch, I think this is an interesting graphic to share.

 

[rburrel2]

If anyone is curious. Here is every model output, (that I plotted), for the big 2022 CAD event/winter storm in the upstate. I started this at around 66hrs out from the event. You'll notice the Rgem did the best. NAM was generally a couple degrees too cold, ukmet way too warm, gfs too warm, Euro too cold.

	7:00 PM	1:00 AM	7:00 AM	total liquid 7am	snowfall
18z gfs	41/32	37/36	34/32	1.21	2 kuchera
18z Nam 3k	37/32	32/29	N/A	N/A	N/A
18z Nam	38/29	32/28	27/23	0.57
18z RGEM	42/25	37/28	29/27	0.65	5 kuchera
12z Euro	41/31	35/30	27/23	0.54	8
12z Ukmet	40/33	38/33	33/33	0.11	7
00z Nam	37/29	33/30	28/23	0.5
00z Nam 3k	38/30	35/26	27/23	0.3	0 kuchera
00z gfs	41/32	37/36	33/32	1.04	3 kuchera
00z RGEM	42/23	38/25	30/27	0.68	6 kuchera
00z EURO	39/32	35/31	28/26	0.76	8
00z Ukmet	40/33	37/34	35/34	0.06	7
06z RGEM	43/24	37/28	30/28	0.54	4 kuchera
06z Nam 3k	39/31	36/26	28/24	0.28	1 kuchera
06z Nam
06z gfs	41/33	38/37	36/33	1.17	3 kuchera
12z NAM	39/30	33/32	30/27	0.52	1 kuchera
12z Nam 3k	40/31	37/26	28/25	0.26	4 kuchera
12z Hrrr	39/34	36/33	31/29	0.13	1 kuchera
12z gfs	41/32	38/36	33/32	0.97	4 kuchera
12z ukmet	40/36	39/36	33/33	0.52	6
12z euro	39/33	35/33	30/27	1.03	10
12z Rgem	41/24	37/28	32/29	0.34	4 kuchera
18z NAM	37/33	35/32	28/25	0.43	2 kuchera
18z Nam 3k	37/32	36/30	28/25	0.43	3 kuchera
18z Hrrr	39/31	36/29	28/28	0.23	2 kuchera
18z Rgem	41/25	37/27	30/28	0.55	4 kuchera
18z gfs	41/32	37/35	33/32	1.12	3 kuchera minima'd
00z Hrrr	39/28	34/31	27/24	0.65	5 kuchera
00z Nam 3k	37/32	35/31	29/26	0.43	0 kuchera
00z Nam	37/29	34/29	30/27	0.48	2 kuchera
00z Rgem	40/26	37/29	31/28	0.66	5 kuchera
12z Hrrr	41/30	37/26	27/24	0.47	3 kuchera
12z Nam 3k	40/32	37/31
12z Nam		36/29
12z Rgem	43/29	38/32	31/30	0.6	5 kuchera
verified	40/31		30/29	0.7	4 inches through 7am

 

[NWMSGuy]

Anyone know the track record with RRFS and handling Ice? Looking awful back my way. Currently under an Ice Storm Warning.

 

[NCHighCountryWX]

I'm surprised a warning hasn't been issued today for the CLT area. It's less than 48 hours away.

I just got off of the NWS GSP 400pm briefing.. The lead forecaster said warnings would be issued later Thursday evening or Friday morning.

 

[KyloG]

We are all praying for as much sleet as we can get! Hopefully the system isn’t as amped up and the mid layers aren’t too bad.

You are in rough shape…precip max where you are. I think Raleigh can escape with less precip like the AI models are showing. Still bad but not catastrophic is my hope.

 

[jackendrickwx]

If anyone is curious. Here is every model output, (that I plotted), for the big 2022 CAD event/winter storm in the upstate. I started this at around 66hrs out from the event. You'll noticed the Rgem did the best.

	7:00 PM	1:00 AM	7:00 AM	total liquid 7am	snowfall
18z gfs	41/32	37/36	34/32	1.21	2 kuchera
18z Nam 3k	37/32	32/29	N/A	N/A	N/A
18z Nam	38/29	32/28	27/23	0.57
18z RGEM	42/25	37/28	29/27	0.65	5 kuchera
12z Euro	41/31	35/30	27/23	0.54	8
12z Ukmet	40/33	38/33	33/33	0.11	7
00z Nam	37/29	33/30	28/23	0.5
00z Nam 3k	38/30	35/26	27/23	0.3	0 kuchera
00z gfs	41/32	37/36	33/32	1.04	3 kuchera
00z RGEM	42/23	38/25	30/27	0.68	6 kuchera
00z EURO	39/32	35/31	28/26	0.76	8
00z Ukmet	40/33	37/34	35/34	0.06	7
06z RGEM	43/24	37/28	30/28	0.54	4 kuchera
06z Nam 3k	39/31	36/26	28/24	0.28	1 kuchera
06z Nam
06z gfs	41/33	38/37	36/33	1.17	3 kuchera
12z NAM	39/30	33/32	30/27	0.52	1 kuchera
12z Nam 3k	40/31	37/26	28/25	0.26	4 kuchera
12z Hrrr	39/34	36/33	31/29	0.13	1 kuchera
12z gfs	41/32	38/36	33/32	0.97	4 kuchera
12z ukmet	40/36	39/36	33/33	0.52	6
12z euro	39/33	35/33	30/27	1.03	10
12z Rgem	41/24	37/28	32/29	0.34	4 kuchera
18z NAM	37/33	35/32	28/25	0.43	2 kuchera
18z Nam 3k	37/32	36/30	28/25	0.43	3 kuchera
18z Hrrr	39/31	36/29	28/28	0.23	2 kuchera
18z Rgem	41/25	37/27	30/28	0.55	4 kuchera
18z gfs	41/32	37/35	33/32	1.12	3 kuchera minima'd
00z Hrrr	39/28	34/31	27/24	0.65	5 kuchera
00z Nam 3k	37/32	35/31	29/26	0.43	0 kuchera
00z Nam	37/29	34/29	30/27	0.48	2 kuchera
00z Rgem	40/26	37/29	31/28	0.66	5 kuchera
12z Hrrr	41/30	37/26	27/24	0.47	3 kuchera
12z Nam 3k	40/32	37/31
12z Nam		36/29
12z Rgem	43/29	38/32	31/30	0.6	5 kuchera
verified	40/31		30/29	0.7	4 inches through 7am

Thanks for posting. It’s usually a good model to follow in these events esp for ptype corridors

 

[NCHighCountryWX]

NWS GSP 400pm Winter Storm Briefing Presentation

 

[superjames1992]

18z GFS looks pretty durn similar out to hr 45...might be a touch slower. Now that I've said that, it'll probably go off the rails and be completely different when it gets to NC / SC / VA / GA.

 

[Mitch West]

System keeps trending slower.

 

[jackendrickwx]

NWS GSP 400pm Winter Storm Briefing Presentation

Eye popping to say the least

 

[Chase1983]

I think i am in pretty much the worst possible area for this storm Clarkesville/Habersham looks like pretty much the bullseye on every model run for the most qpf and ZR total - feeling really grateful we went ahead and bought a generac last year

 

[jrips27]

GFS about the same if not a tick colder over ATL Metro

 

[KyloG]

Gfs…

 

[NCPROGRAMMER]

System keeps trending slower. View attachment 187712

Wonder if it gets strung out some and then we actually end up with a southern track. Low might not be as strong as advertised? High is stronger? Not sure but it did trend south this run and weaker overall envelope.

 

[TheWeatherDriver]

Gfs…


View attachment 187714

I would rather have more QPF at this point. Less QPF just means more ice build up

 

[Makeitsnow]

gfs is 2 to 3 degrees colder at the surface sunday and has increased the sleet for ne ga

 

[KyloG]

P type for GFs

 

[jrips27]

If Atlanta gets a catastrophic ice storm, the signs were there on the GFS

 

[Spurs up]

System keeps trending slower. View attachment 187712

Does that translate to colder?

 

[rburrel2]

The hardest forecast to make is easily the Atlanta area.... huge boom and bust potential there. I have no idea what way to lean. I'm guessing bad icing since that low level jet is aimed right at them Saturday evening.

 

[J.C.]

Looked to me like the low pressure ticked a little further south before the transfer.

 

[KyloG]

I would rather have more QPF at this point. Less QPF just means more ice build up

It’s showing 2” in Raleigh.

 

[TheWeatherDriver]

P type for GFs

View attachment 187719

Still underestimating CAD imo

 

[Stormsfury]

Does that translate to colder?

Does that translate to colder?

Colder due to more entrenchment before precip starts. It's still amped up and solid ZR in the Midlands. Still wants to warm up later. But that looks like warning level ice.

 

[jackendrickwx]

This GFS run sent 3-4” QPF up the 85 corridor in SC

 

[mydoortotheworld]

ATL still in the crosshairs as well with recent ICON.

If Atlanta gets a catastrophic ice storm, the signs were there on the GFS
View attachment 187718

This is like the 20th graphic I’ve seen of this much ZR over ATL and it’s still breathtaking every time I see it lol. Just unreal. Would be catastrophic

 

[NWG_WX14]

if we get a few more ticks south I-40 crew may get a nice front end thump of snow

 

[Mpirone12]

Well ladies and gents. I don’t see a way out of this one. Any direction you look the QPF is ridiculous


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[KyloG]

Like 30 hours of precip for GFS through the corridor