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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

Psalm 148:8 said:
🤣🤣🤣. I give up!!! Look at Sunday night! View attachment 187686
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The one next weekend is our storm...if it verifies. Low stays in Fla, giving us sn/ip probably. Looks like we are dodging the worst of the zr, unless the cad gets cranking. These clown maps are useless. Some give me 2 inch of qpf, some .20. I go with the FFc when it gets close. Right now they have me a .25 zr, which I can handle. Some of the clownies give me a 1/2 inch, or more, which will wreck my tree tops.
 
superjames1992 said:
18z ICON is ~2" liquid equivalent here with temperatures barely getting to the mid-20s by the end of the storm. Apocalyptic. We better be building a sleet mountain because my house is going to collapse if that is mostly ZR.

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The GFS is over 2" as well. Wow. I think this has a good chance of being the highest liquid equivalent winter storm I've ever experienced.

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bouncycorn said:
View attachment 187721

So latest ICON and GFS both have a destructive ice storm in Atlanta with >0.5 ice accretion (FRAM) (gfs is >1”).
With ECMWF also trending in that direction.

00z NAM/CAMs are fed from 18z GFS, so I’d expect them to shift similarly.
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These fram images are scary.
superjames1992 said:
The GFS is over 2" as well. Wow. I think this has a good chance of being the highest liquid equivalent winter storm I've ever experienced.

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how about 4.75 in gainesville? o_O This has to be overdone...i mean c'mon.

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superjames1992 said:
The GFS is over 2" as well. Wow. I think this has a good chance of being the highest liquid equivalent winter storm I've ever experienced.

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Wow, 3-5 through NGA to the Upstate. This is literally the cold high pressures and the long duration QPF we have always dreamed about; if only it could have been snow!
 
One thing to think about for areas that accumulate sleet of any consequence before the transition to ZR is that roads will be a skating rink. 29-32 degrees ZR generally doesn't accumulate on non-elevated roadways. With so much QPF predicted, a few inches of sleet followed by 1/2"-1" of ZR may well occur in some areas. We haven't been in the deep freeze ahead of the storm, so I would think ground accumulations of ZR, even at night, will be limited in the Atlanta area at least.

Thoughts on what temperature is required for surface streets ZR only nighttime accumulations? I've never experienced ZR below 29 here.
 
A high level question - if the trend is a slower system, is it possible that this is due to the HP strength and wedge not allowing the low to go the way the models have been saying? If so, could this slowing system lead to an early energy transfer off the Carolina coast, which is evident by the climbing volatility and glimpses of insane precip, as well as the increasing southern/cold trends in general? Feasible? Been feeling something along these lines since last night.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
One thing to think about for areas that accumulate sleet of any consequence before the transition to ZR is that roads will be a skating rink. 29-32 degrees ZR generally doesn't accumulate on non-elevated roadways. With so much QPF predicted, a few inches of sleet followed by 1/2"-1" of ZR may well occur in some areas. We haven't been in the deep freeze ahead of the storm, so I would think ground accumulations of ZR, even at night, will be limited in the Atlanta area at least.

Thoughts on what temperature is required for surface streets ZR only nighttime accumulations? I've never experienced ZR below 29 here.
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I've experienced 25 degrees with sleet and freezing rain in 2004 and the roads did not ice up. Our ground temps are relatively warm (45 to 50). Probably going to be ok, but there will be a ton of trees to clear off roads.
 
Do we really think 2-3 inches of liquid can fall with an 8-10 degree warm nose and not “win” and defeat the cold surface layer and get people up to freezing? I know this CAD is being continuously fed cold air, but dang. I’d expect at least a little warming from that much latent heat release at the surface.
 
rburrel2 said:
Do we really think 2-3 inches of liquid can fall with an 8-10 degree warm nose and not “win” and defeat the cold surface layer and get people up to freezing? I know this CAD is being continuously fed cold air, but dang. I’d expect at least a little warming from that much latent heat release at the surface.
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Heavy precip isn't going to accrete very well, but hey if that's the biggest thing going against this storm I think it's good. We could be surprised if it's as historic as it could be. 31-32 is a very common thing in CAD here in Atlanta. Just the way it's been. That means not too bad in Atlanta proper based on clmio. This may be one the fits outside that climo box though.
 
rburrel2 said:
Do we really think 2-3 inches of liquid can fall with an 8-10 degree warm nose and not “win” and defeat the cold surface layer and get people up to freezing? I know this CAD is being continuously fed cold air, but dang. I’d expect at least a little warming from that much latent heat release at the surface.
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Your 925’s are cold enough to limit some of that
 
weatherfide said:
I've experienced 25 degrees with sleet and freezing rain in 2004 and the roads did not ice up. Our ground temps are relatively warm (45 to 50). Probably going to be ok, but there will be a ton of trees to clear off roads.
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I’ve experienced ZR in the upper 20s and the roads in Atlanta being a black ice skating rink including the entirety of 285. It all seems like such a crapshoot with how the roads do in these things.
 
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If you don’t hear from me anymore it means the EURO or CANADIAN came to be…..


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