Wintry January 21-23 2025

[Rain Cold]

Is there anyway we have to deal with a warm nose with system like this


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Oh yeah

 

[1300m]

Yea, the Ukie is allergic to showing snow in the long range. This is one of the biggest signs we have something here.

Based on the 18z Euro / 00z UKMET (not to mention throw in the 00z CMC with a similar look) you have to think the 00z Euro is going to be pretty good.

 

[albertwilsonjr]

Oh yeah

What are the 850 showing


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[Myfrotho704_]

Gefs coming in hot. More TPV, more westward digging. great combo

 

[John1122]

The UKIE would have a more expansive precip footprint than what it actually just spit out imo. I'd bet it would throw snow to the Ohio River instead of the Tennessee river. Models seem to always underestimate the N/NW side of Gulf lows.

 

[Rain Cold]

What are the 850 showing


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Depends on where you are. No way to nail down any specifics yet. Not even close. We just want a long-duration arctic air mass, and a suppressed system at this range.

 

[John1122]

Is there anyway we have to deal with a warm nose with system like this


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Someone always has to with a Miller A, it's just according to where you're at.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Gefs looks slightly more suppressed but significantly colder. We are doing things right

 

[rduwx]

Check the Canadian. It's actually hard to believe what we're seeing. They don't make them like this anymore. I can't even imagine this could actually happen. But man, this air mass is frigid. What in the world?

I agree! Our area has been in a slump for over a decade so any pesamism is understandable. Lol!

 

[bouncycorn]

Any similar events that anyone can think of that look similar to what these models are showing? I can't think of any... I've never seen models look like this -- consistently, on ensembles, etc -- ever..

 

[Stormsfury]

Any similar events that anyone can think of that look similar to what these models are showing? I can't think of any... I've never seen models look like this -- consistently, on ensembles, etc -- ever..

Not in all my years of following this. I've never seen such agreement in this amount of lead time... Never

 

[rburrel2]

Any similar events that anyone can think of that look similar to what these models are showing? I can't think of any... I've never seen models look like this -- consistently, on ensembles, etc -- ever..

I personally can't think of any storm that was this well advertised and flashing this hard at day 7/8. It's sort of crazy, tbh. Especially not with such similar foot prints amongst all the different models/means.

 

[iGRXY]

Any similar events that anyone can think of that look similar to what these models are showing? I can't think of any... I've never seen models look like this -- consistently, on ensembles, etc -- ever..

Jan 2011 I believe was picked up very early and never lost. You got good runs off of it too, but I don’t think even it was spitting out routine 10-20” totals across the southeast

 

[rduwx]

Any similar events that anyone can think of that look similar to what these models are showing? I can't think of any... I've never seen models look like this -- consistently, on ensembles, etc -- ever..

I’ve seen the models come together with a similar look for maybe a run or two but never with the consistency of what is being shown now. I’m kind of in a state of shock right now.

 

[rduwx]

I personally can't think of any storm that was this well advertised and flashing this hard at day 7/8. It's sort of crazy, tbh. Especially not with such similar foot prints amongst all the different models/means.

I remember Dec 2010 being modeled well in advance. I believe it was 7 days out.

 

[Arcc]

I don’t hate this at all.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Any similar events that anyone can think of that look similar to what these models are showing? I can't think of any... I've never seen models look like this -- consistently, on ensembles, etc -- ever..

The agreement is top tier but the look at 500mb is something I can’t remember seeing. Taking on a cold zonal look.It’s like what zonal flow would look like in the middle of Canada during peak winter

 

[Tarheel1]

Any similar events that anyone can think of that look similar to what these models are showing? I can't think of any... I've never seen models look like this -- consistently, on ensembles, etc -- ever..

CMC really kind of looked like Jan 88

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Remember when Europe used to steal all of our cold. lolol the bathtub has sloshed like JB always said it would

 

[J.C.]

I made a post about what it must have been like to live during the January of 1940, but my goodness it is actually happening.

 

[iGRXY]

 

[iGRXY]

Ooooowwwweeeeeeeeee

 

[JLM]

Fwiw...

 

[griteater]

Any similar events that anyone can think of that look similar to what these models are showing? I can't think of any... I've never seen models look like this -- consistently, on ensembles, etc -- ever..

I wasn't alive then, but it has a Valentine's Day 1895 look to it (west to east overrunning with long fetch). 22 inches in Lake Charles, LA. 8 inches in New Orleans. All-time records at both sites.

 

[iGRXY]

Euro squashes it lolol

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

Euro squashes it lolol

At this range, I’m not mad.


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[iGRXY]

Nothing like getting your 2nd piece look better as the cold air is sliding out lolol

 

[jrips27]

What the heck is this lol

 

[iGRXY]

I’m not even going to lie. That run made absolutely zero sense. I’m going to bed

 

[iGRXY]

Ahhhhh ole reliable. Never too far from us.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

What the heck is this lol
View attachment 163634

It’s that thing NickyB told us to worry about and it rhymes with depression

 

[griteater]

Euro just squashes the wave into the SW (similar to GFS) while the UKMet and CMC bring it on out within the base of the trough

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

Sticking with the ensembles is the best course of action right now, still have several more days to for adjustments to this system. Just know we have something to track.


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[accu35]

Forecast grid already showing chance of snow showers for Monday night for my area. Tuesday “heavy snow storm”

 

[bouncycorn]

Not worried about suppression in the slightest. More worried about this thing trending too warm/north.
Suppression at this range is what I prefer to see as opposed to being in the bullseye.

 

[bouncycorn]

00z GEPS (CMC ensemble) is right where I want it

 

[WolfpackHomer91]

Any similar events that anyone can think of that look similar to what these models are showing? I can't think of any... I've never seen models look like this -- consistently, on ensembles, etc -- ever..

If we get to Thursday …. Feb 2014. 5 days straight of gold (Minus the normal Mixing issues scare around Day 3)


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[JLM]

Some NWS offices already biting

 

[1300m]

00z EPS looking good.

 

[1300m]

Lots of big dogs in the individual members.