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Wintry January 21-23 2025

6z euro definitely more in ukmet/canadian/icon camp with that energy out west. Gfs looks totally different than any other model. Euro had more negative tilt than 0z run wasn’t gonna be as suppressed as last nights run


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It's not quite as good as 12z in terms of amplification. However, it's better than 00z and nowhere near the sheared mess of the GFS. I also like that the lobe over the Great Lakes has been trending stronger and further west, which would delay the warm-up.
 
packfan98 said:
What’s your current thinking?
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Big picture wise, I think we're still trending towards a significant to possibly major winter storm. Seeing the EPS slowly increase the signal and not jumping around a ton at H5 and with support from the GEPS and various other op runs all looks promising. Good long ways to go, but liking where we are at the moment.

ecmwf-ensemble-KRDU-snow_24hr_multirun-6899200.png
ecmwf-ensemble-KRDU-indiv_snow-6899200.png
 
1300m said:
Big picture wise, I think we're still trending towards a significant to possibly major winter storm. Seeing the EPS slowly increase the signal and not jumping around a ton at H5 and with support from the GEPS and various other op runs all looks promising. Good long ways to go, but liking where we are at the moment.

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Yeah big difference vs the last one at this lead time was we wasn’t getting consistently good or better runs
 
This setup is somewhat unconventional for us to get our big snows. Looking back at January 1940, arguably our most board-wide storm, you'll notice that the wave deepened in the Southeast as it tilted positive off of Cape Hatteras. Meanwhile, even with our best-case scenario models (CMC, UKMET), the wave can't deepen over the Southeast, or it's heading northeast by the time it does.



With a Miller-A, a deeper low can bring in more cold air, while with this overrunning setup, we have to worry more about timing and mixing issues. The magnitude of the air mass is so extreme that it's hard to find anything to compare to this one. The only storm that comes to mind is December 2017. But, the air mass was much more marginal. Compare it with the UKMET:
us_reanalyse-en_modera5_201712072100_5_1471.pngukmo-all-conus-z500_anom-7504000.png

If anyone has any other similar storms in mind, let me know.
 
Honestly. The CMC/UKmet/Euro/EPS/Euro AI/Spire/JMA/icon are all aligned pretty well. Only thing to be ironed out is strength of the wave and how much cold air in the mid levels we will have to work with.

The GFS is completely lost right now, we can toss.
 
Ollie Williams said:
This setup is somewhat unconventional for us to get our big snows. Looking back at January 1940, arguably our most board-wide storm, you'll notice that the wave deepened in the Southeast as it tilted positive off of Cape Hatteras. Meanwhile, even with our best-case scenario models (CMC, UKMET), the wave can't deepen over the Southeast, or it's heading northeast by the time it does.



With a Miller-A, a deeper low can bring in more cold air, while with this overrunning setup, we have to worry more about timing and mixing issues. The magnitude of the air mass is so extreme that it's hard to find anything to compare to this one. The only storm that comes to mind is December 2017. But, the air mass was much more marginal. Compare it with the UKMET:
View attachment 163691View attachment 163693

If anyone has any other similar storms in mind, let me know.
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2017 was coming to mind when I saw some of the early maps on models and how suppressed it came up back then as. I'm hoping it's more overrunning so more cam get snow but wouldn't be mad if it repeated 2017 here. Overrunning could also lead to a longer storm.
 
As many have said, stick with the ensembles for now because they won't jump around every run. As for Goofy, I just don't figure it into the equation. Many things can and will change but some people in the SE are going to have a storm of large proportions if you follow the ensemble mix (except for the GEFS)
 
ForsythSnow said:
2017 was coming to mind when I saw some of the early maps on models and how suppressed it came up back then as. I'm hoping it's more overrunning so more cam get snow but wouldn't be mad if it repeated 2017 here. Overrunning could also lead to a longer storm.
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A repeater 2017 with much colder temps would be amazing. While I “officially” measured 9” the morning after. I have no doubt over a foot fell.
 
BullCityWx said:
0z Canadian focused at 12z 1/22:

10Fº +SN N10/G20 16:1 ratios

That is something you'd see in Detroit or Cleveland. I dont know how many of yall have ever experienced such a cold snow but its like an actual snow globe.
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You are so right. I was fortunate enough to experience the January 2003 storm with the incredible 40:1 ratios. I was literally able to sweep it off my front steps with a broom
 
Being born and raised in Birmingham, I still dial up Spann's weather xtreme videos from time to time. I'll never come around to calling it the weather briefing. At roughly the 4:19 mark, he references the CMC doomsday run.

"And these deterministic runs are all over the board..and people ya know, just hold their breath waiting on these things to come in"


For a second, I thought he was talking about us.

 
would be funny if this storm was just too suppressed and just went poof, nicky would be on a generational hater run (and if i were in his shoes i would be too)

i like the ensembles but would it kill the gfs and euro to throw us some candy?
 
ILMRoss said:
would be funny if this storm was just too suppressed and just went poof, nicky would be on a generational hater run (and if i were in his shoes i would be too)

i like the ensembles but would it kill the gfs and euro to throw us some candy?
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Hopefully those Ops come around in the next day or so.
 
ILMRoss said:
would be funny if this storm was just too suppressed and just went poof, nicky would be on a generational hater run (and if i were in his shoes i would be too)

i like the ensembles but would it kill the gfs and euro to throw us some candy?
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For me, the UKMET on our side is just about as good as the Euro OP but thats just me.
 
ILMRoss said:
would be funny if this storm was just too suppressed and just went poof, nicky would be on a generational hater run (and if i were in his shoes i would be too)

i like the ensembles but would it kill the gfs and euro to throw us some candy?
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Haha just trying to keep expectations down. I’ve seen plenty of times where a storm looked great just to have it disappear in the final moments. It’s the most deflating feeling. There’s big dog solutions but there’s also fail solutions as well in the ensembles. Both can happen and it includes a suppressed solution and an energy gets left behind and links up with another piece too late which cuts (my personal favorite 😉) Plenty of time to watch still.
 
Seems to be a lot of people hanging on for dear life after the 06z gfs op run that is clearly an outlier. Let me share last nights 00z CMC and 00z UKMET for those that may have missed it. We have had runs like this since Sundays euro in some form or fashion on the models and the eps really cranked things up last night. Not sure what else some of you need to see, but this is the best big dog potential I’ve seen for a lot of us. Seeing the UKMET, EPS, even the GEFS with suppressed solutions, along with the AI starting to bend towards these. Hold on tight.



IMG_7094.gifIMG_7095.gifIMG_7097.gifIMG_7096.gif
 
ILMRoss said:
would be funny if this storm was just too suppressed and just went poof, nicky would be on a generational hater run (and if i were in his shoes i would be too)

i like the ensembles but would it kill the gfs and euro to throw us some candy?
Click to expand...
Do we even want the day 7 OP GFS showing a hit...we know the Op GFS is great at telling us what's not going to happen.
 
Parker said:
Seems to be a lot of people hanging on for dear life after the 06z gfs op run that is clearly an outlier. Let me share last nights 00z CMC and 00z UKMET for those that may have missed it. We have had runs like this since Sundays euro in some form or fashion on the models and the eps really cranked things up last night. Not sure what else some of you need to see, but this is the best big dog potential I’ve seen for a lot of us. Seeing the UKMET, EPS, even the GEFS with suppressed solutions, along with the AI starting to bend towards these. Hold on tight.



View attachment 163698View attachment 163699View attachment 163700View attachment 163701
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Heck of a sleet storm down into middle/ south GA. A lot of potential with this one
 
I would be concerned if this gets pushed in to late next week as guidance is showing temps moderating considerably beginning next Thursday. The brunt of the arctic air is entrenched Tues/Weds, with models taking a couple steps back from the record cold ledge over the past few days. There is a window for sure, it's just not as large as it was say 2-3 days ago.
 
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