Under a WSW here..
Lotsa virga ATM here in Surf City/Topsail..
currently 31F DP of 18
Wasn't @Stormsfury mentioning something about the Gulf Steam???
Interesting "changes" in KILM "update"..
Models have trended wetter and farther northwest today with an
area of low pressure off of the Carolina coast tonight. Snow
totals have increased significantly since this morning with
portions of coastal
NC/SC now expecting close to 6 inches of
snow and sleet. The Winter Storm
Warning has been expanded
across the entire forecast area with 1 to 3 inches of snow
expected near the I-95 corridor, 2 to 4 inches between I-95 and
the coast, 3 to 5 inches near the coast, and 2 to 4 along the
immediate coastline where some mixing may occur. Periodic
banding will produce a few areas with
isolated higher amounts,
especially near the coast where mixing does not occur. High-end
totals around 6 or 7 inches, primarily in the
Cape Fear region
and up to 5 inches just inland.
It is possible that this warm nose is muted by an isothermal
layer which will maintain mostly snow and only a brief period
of
snow pellets or sleet. There is some confidence with this
prediction as 850
mb winds turn westerly by 02-04Z
with a
secondary low developing along the Gulf Stream this evening. Dry
and cold air
advection within this layer should promote further
melting and an isothermal profile with mostly snow.
Signs of
this are evident as the NAM and hi-res models produce a 0C 850
mb line as far east as the western edge of the Gulf Stream,
indicating deep cold air pushing offshore late tonight.