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Wintry January 21-23 2025

Will be fun to see where we actually end up for the SLR. New Orleans is verifying over 10:1 at the moment per my NWS friend there.
If New Orleans is managing 10:1 being right on the Gulf and close to freezing, I certainly think 15-18:1 is reasonable here
 
Under a WSW here..
Lotsa virga ATM here in Surf City/Topsail..

currently 31F DP of 18
Wasn't @Stormsfury mentioning something about the Gulf Steam???

Interesting "changes" in KILM "update"..

Models have trended wetter and farther northwest today with an
area of low pressure off of the Carolina coast tonight. Snow
totals have increased significantly since this morning with
portions of coastal NC/SC now expecting close to 6 inches of
snow and sleet. The Winter Storm Warning has been expanded
across the entire forecast area with 1 to 3 inches of snow
expected near the I-95 corridor, 2 to 4 inches between I-95 and
the coast, 3 to 5 inches near the coast, and 2 to 4 along the
immediate coastline where some mixing may occur. Periodic
banding will produce a few areas with isolated higher amounts,
especially near the coast where mixing does not occur. High-end
totals around 6 or 7 inches, primarily in the Cape Fear region
and up to 5 inches just inland.
It is possible that this warm nose is muted by an isothermal
layer which will maintain mostly snow and only a brief period
of snow pellets or sleet. There is some confidence with this
prediction as 850 mb winds turn westerly by 02-04Z with a
secondary low developing along the Gulf Stream this evening.
Dry
and cold air advection within this layer should promote further
melting and an isothermal profile with mostly snow. Signs of
this are evident as the NAM and hi-res models produce a 0C 850
mb line as far east as the western edge of the Gulf Stream,
indicating deep cold air pushing offshore late tonight.
 
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