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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

First GEFS run w/ less medium-range -NAO in quite some time, figured we would see at least one run like this at some pt given that basically almost every run in the last 2-3 days has trended stronger. These individual wave breaks on the N Atlantic jet are really hard to forecast & may be a lot more back/forth between now & then left to be had.

1610470593052.png
 
sdm47 said:
I don't think we're as far apart as you may think. What I am saying is that for those of us outside of the more favored climo areas of the southeast, it is a mighty fine needle to thread without a parent high of any kind and it is much more likely to end up with a snowfall distribution like 12/18-12/19/2009. That one sucked like heck and many areas looked to be right on the line for days ahead of that one only to end in a few meaningless flakes considering areas just to the west got clobbered. Of course anything is possible with a lot of cold air aloft around, but it requires more help than if a parent high were in play. Anyway, I hope like heck I am wrong.

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I'd say we're pretty far apart here. The Miller A composite of big storms east of the mtns in NC has no cold high to the north whatsoever. The cold advection is the same whether you have a strong coastal lows + normal pressures to the north vs normal pressures & high pressure to the N. There's some relationship hydrostatically but these Miller As more often than not do not have any cold high. Bigger cold high to the N gives you CAD not a Miller A.

North America NCEPR1 MSLPa NC Miller A Winter Storms (1948-2019).png
 
sdm47 said:
I don't think we're as far apart as you may think. What I am saying is that for those of us outside of the more favored climo areas of the southeast, it is a mighty fine needle to thread without a parent high of any kind and it is much more likely to end up with a snowfall distribution like 12/18-12/19/2009. That one sucked like heck and many areas looked to be right on the line for days ahead of that one only to end in a few meaningless flakes considering areas just to the west got clobbered. Of course anything is possible with a lot of cold air aloft around, but it requires more help than if a parent high were in play. Anyway, I hope like heck I am wrong.

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You want the most quintessential example of a coastal low that looks almost exactly like the composite I just showed (which you subsequently disliked, be salty idc)?

December 25-26 2010.

Your sfc high is over Minnesota & western Ontario. That's more than good enough to get the job done, don't need it directly to our north over the Lakes & NE US



1610471468977.png
 
We're far more likely to see a widespread winter storm, outside of the climo-favored areas of the SE, with a high pressure in or near a favorable position as opposed to no high pressure, as some would like to lead you to believe. That's not to say a winter storm can't occur with out it, but it's much better to have one present. This one is easy.
 
sdm47 said:
I don't think we're as far apart as you may think. What I am saying is that for those of us outside of the more favored climo areas of the southeast, it is a mighty fine needle to thread without a parent high of any kind and it is much more likely to end up with a snowfall distribution like 12/18-12/19/2009. That one sucked like heck and many areas looked to be right on the line for days ahead of that one only to end in a few meaningless flakes considering areas just to the west got clobbered. Of course anything is possible with a lot of cold air aloft around, but it requires more help than if a parent high were in play. Anyway, I hope like heck I am wrong.

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Here's another one for good measure:

Jan 24-25 2000, widespread 1-2 feet+ of snow east of the mtns.

No cold high anywhere in sight to our north, actually there's a low over the Great Lakes

I think you get my point...

1610471972149.png



January 24-25 2000 NC Snowmap.gif
 
Rain Cold said:
We're far more likely to see a widespread winter storm, outside of the climo-favored areas of the SE, with a high pressure in or near a favorable position as opposed to no high pressure, as some would like to lead you to believe. That's not to say a winter storm can't occur with out it, but it's much better to have one present. This one is easy.
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Umm no.


January 24-25 2000 NC Snowmap.gif


1610472135688.png
 
Rain Cold said:
We're far more likely to see a widespread winter storm, outside of the climo-favored areas of the SE, with a high pressure in or near a favorable position as opposed to no high pressure, as some would like to lead you to believe. That's not to say a winter storm can't occur with out it, but it's much better to have one present. This one is easy.
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Yeah this is like one of the ABCs of forecasting winter weather in the southeast, this isn't some complex notion. And choosing two extreme events - one of which has a high to the west just like the Miller A composites only proves this point further.
 
sdm47 said:
Yeah this is like one of the ABCs of forecasting winter weather in the southeast, this isn't some complex notion. And choosing two extreme events - one of which has a high to the west just like the Miller A composites only proves this point further.
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It really doesn't because someone like you would then turned around and say something misleading like "that high is in a bad position (or whatever excuse you wanna use)" when it's not.
 
sdm47 said:
Yeah this is like one of the ABCs of forecasting winter weather in the southeast, this isn't some complex notion. And choosing two extreme events - one of which has a high to the west just like the Miller A composites only proves this point further.
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I’m pretty sure the meteorologist here including myself know the ABCs but just like in real life with anything it’s much more complicated than that.. the simpler you make things the more room for error
 
We’re gonna have to make it work without a high pressure to our NE, it is what it is, Oh well. while I like CAD setups, there’s a reason why every winter storm in the Carolinas isn’t related to CAD all the time, other setups like miller As (which the composite doesn’t have a CAD signature) works out, I mean I hear complaining about miller Bs that have CAD, what do we exactly need ? Lol, go drink a miller lite and relax
 
EastAtlwx said:
I’m pretty sure the meteorologist here including myself know the ABCs but just like in real life with anything it’s much more complicated than that.. the simpler you make things the more room for error
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Bingo. Yes it's really not that simple as some here are trying to make everyone believe. It's not as easy as give me cold air & a big cold high to the north to transport and then that's automatically the best setup for everyone. It gives you a certain type of winter storm but that's not always a good setup for most including areas like say the coastal plain/I-95 corridor of NC, where Miller A cyclones usually deliver bigger winter storms per capita than overrunning or CAD.
 
GFS was about to deliver a wopper of a storm at the end of its run... I definitely think eventually the board will have to deal with a widespread winter storm that involves to a significant degree the CAD regions.. large sprawling high pressures seem to keep popping up in the longer range... so many threats to look at between now and then... this is a true winter worth having
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Hopefully we see more models jump on board with this lookView attachment 65236View attachment 65237
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UKMET evolution verbatim is gonna be a too far west for FAY-RDU at 500mb, but not for the western piedmont (GSO-CLT & pts west). Need the trough axis to become neutrally tilted over east-central AL or GA for the I-95 & US-1 corridors in NC to jackpot.
 
Interesting disco from FFC regarding the shortwave possibility tomorrow that @Webberweather53 has been highlighting:


Another shortwave approaching the gulf coast region Wed and based on
its strength quite surprised model guidance producing very little
vertical motion and precip not just here but ever areas to the
south. Perhaps a rare, unfavorable vertical alignment of sfc and
upper low is to blame. 00Z EC has a touch over SW GA around 18Z Wed
but next to nothing from other models. Have not gone much above PoPs
for late Wed and Wed night but may do so this time tomorrow.

SNELSON
 
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