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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

By your own admission, in almost every scenario other than the extremely rare phased bomb miller A, you want a high either to the north or northwest nosing in to provide some offsetting cold and dry air during the storm. That's all either of us have been saying. Now stop this nonsense.

What nonsense? You're seriously gonna try to argue with a guy (me) who has spent the better part of the last several years analyzing thousands of individual cases for winter storms around here? Lol, please.

You actually said earlier you want northeasterly flow east of the mtns and big cold high to the north, that is literally verbatim CAD setups only, there are many other types of winter storms fyi. You also can't just willingly omit some of the biggest storms of all time and brush those aside, especially if your point was to say we need "x" to specifically get big winter storms when literally many of the biggest events don't have that.
 
If you guys want to continue the bickering and conversation about high positions and snow please start a new thread or go banter

Thanks!
Hello, this thing on? May have to share this post a few times but let's try to follow admins instructions here, please and thank you
 
Kinda goes to crap but we’re not far here either, one thing I notice is the increase in strength of the 50/50 low, (im not mad at this look at all it’s close) B9C8BBF0-8C14-4183-92C1-F693A42C80A1.png04480E7D-C8C0-436E-8F38-060300253FB8.pngDF54207B-947A-4ACF-ABBB-6D64A0C2C4E0.png1D98ABCC-4777-46B8-831A-A1B122EF2DBE.png
 
Looks like the EPS is starting to pick up on CAD in this period. Pretty much expected for -NAO/-PNA
Lol we could range from a winter storm CAD setup to a cold rain/ruined warm day and even severe weather, sounds about right with this sort of pattern, gonna probably see all those solutions pop up the next few days
 
soooo in concerns to the potential for the southern slider event next sunday into monday (1/17-1/18) - we've noticed most globals suppress the storm in various degrees (UK seems to be the closest to something big, while euro takes it to Mexico, GFS and icon sit in between-ish). is suppression what we want in this stage (130hrs out) or are we potentially dealing with something that may be too late to trend NW, and if so what factors argue for and against this?

my instinct tells me this will definitely trend back in our favor (speaking for ATL but if ATL gets snow usually AL and some of NC/SC get it too) but this is only from experience - and i know it doesn't always "come back".
 
This storm looks like a night time roller in NC too!

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Lol almost every member that delivers snow to NC is a miller B/overrunning, not surprising given this is basically the longwave pattern we’re looking at
We’re gonna probably run into ice with this sorta look as well unfortunately, maybe even severe, but that depends on SE Canada vortex F88A5DC6-0FDB-4E9F-B766-6F6FCB0687D0.png0747DD02-1E38-41DE-A5BF-7CED5C1F41E4.png
 
Goofy's 216 has a weak gulf low, down in Fla, and cold air pressing in. That's nearly as good as you can get this far out, in Ga., and something that could shape up in the remaining time. Perfect winter storms in Ga are fewer in number than the fabled dayglo unicorn, blizzards, and basket ball sized snow flakes... and I saw those in the 70's, and the bliz in the 90's, saw the perfect SnoJam snow storm close down Atl in the 80's, and several perfect sleet storms in the late 50's, early 60's, the late 70's and early 80's. And one down here in the 90's. So hope is alive....but exceedingly rare to be realized, lol. It's taken me over 70 years to get those little bits of joy. And they are so fleeting...at least sleet has staying power which makes it wonderful beyond snow, which it generally here today, gone tomorrow beauty. So whatever frozen that falls needs a cold blast behind it..part of what makes a good one so rare. Cold before, cold after, not too bitter cold during, no waa, reinforcing caa, wsw winds bringing the moisture, n or ne winds bring the caa, low in Fla. but not too deep, weak gom low to prevent the waa, and help the caa. No wonder it's so damn tropical around here...lol....too much needle threading. The most perfect sustained conditions for a winter event was also the worst, most horrific storm I was in so far. So perfecton is over rated. I'll take a two day surprise....though that horrific storm was a complete surprise...you just don't see it sit on 32 hour after hour while a strong gom low puts down inches of rain. .. thank goodness, lol.
 
All I will say is I don't think it's wise to argue with the guy who spent most of his life researching and analyzing data for SE winter storms and who has a degree in the field. I'll leave it at that. Now I think we have 2 potential winter storms here. The Southern slider is very suppressed on a lot of the guidance which is where you want it at this range still. The Day 9-10 storm on the euro is a beaut as the 50/50 low is in a perfect spot with CAD building in. That is a picture perfect snowstorm for the northern upstate (6-10" of all snow) a mix bag of snow, sleet, and ZR in the central, southern upstate, and northern midlands (2-4" snow & 0.25+ of ZR) and a pretty big ice storm for the pee dee region (0.5+ ZR, 1-2" snow). That's generally how a lot of our wide spread winter storms look around here.
 
All I will say is I don't think it's wise to argue with the guy who spent most of his life researching and analyzing data for SE winter storms and who has a degree in the field. I'll leave it at that. Now I think we have 2 potential winter storms here. The Southern slider is very suppressed on a lot of the guidance which is where you want it at this range still. The Day 9-10 storm on the euro is a beaut as the 50/50 low is in a perfect spot with CAD building in. That is a picture perfect snowstorm for the northern upstate (6-10" of all snow) a mix bag of snow, sleet, and ZR in the central, southern upstate, and northern midlands (2-4" snow & 0.25+ of ZR) and a pretty big ice storm for the pee dee region (0.5+ ZR, 1-2" snow). That's generally how a lot of our wide spread winter storms look around here.
Agree with ya on this one. The slider isn't totally over yet and that storm the Doc shows on the 21st-22nd is a classic set up. Fits the time frame Webb has touted as the prime time frame. Although not a guarantee its definitely the best look I've seen so far. Hopefully she holds for us.
 
I see you ? NAM! Thursday suprise up in here! Was flurries yesterday! 092AF9FF-E606-4571-ACE3-7FBB558A4328.pngA71067D7-A84F-4963-895C-5EE53A85AE74.png
 
Looks better to me at H5 In terms of potential compared to 12z View attachment 65329
You want a little more interaction and a neutral tilt at that location, sort of like what the UK showed...although I suspect the UK would have violently lifted north soon there after and would have ridden just inland or right along the coast.
 
Wrt those SN showers under the ULT, could certainly see some stuff sneak east of the mountains, sorta reminds me of a warmer version of Christmas, most likely would be flurries although a burst of snow in them is not impossible, but that inverted V screams virga, but is also the reason you could go from light rain >>>> evap cooling >>>> get down to wet bulb temp and light snow, we sure are running up the flizzard count this year F16A1652-86B5-44C9-874C-C8A3F079AE0E.pngC1224522-8695-4CA0-8044-4FA895FD33A6.pngE44F0EB0-0F0E-4647-B678-D0CF2CC2DCBA.png
 
You want a little more interaction and a neutral tilt at that location, sort of like what the UK showed...although I suspect the UK would have violently lifted north soon there after and would have ridden just inland or right along the coast.
Hopefully we trend to that and not waste it
 
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You want a little more interaction and a neutral tilt at that location, sort of like what the UK showed...although I suspect the UK would have violently lifted north soon there after and would have ridden just inland or right along the coast.
If you’re in RDU, you wanna see the trough axis go neutral around the AL/GA border +/- 100-125 miles or so. If you’re tilting neutral sooner around say Mississippi like Jan 87 & Mar 93, the sfc low will indeed track too far inland and it’ll end up being a Apps centric snowstorm with significant totals confined along/west of I 85 & mostly rain in the east-central Piedmont + coastal plain.
 
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