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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

WeatherNC said:
I’m looking at a full on retrograding of the NA block down through central Canada and CONUS, vs an inflection point. Obviously not indicated at this stage, but a prelude for many majors.
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This block won’t retrograde into the conus, strong pacific jet undercutting the block, lateral mixing by planetary waves and more favorable forcing for blocking in the arctic vs far N Atlantic will shift the epicenter further N late in the month.
 
Chandler said:
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But there’s no legit chance of this being good for anyone outside of the mountains ... I don’t believe so euro has been on this ... the air is barely not cold enough any trend just a bit colder as the euro just did would mean big things for anyone in NC .. keep an eye on this one it’s becoming thread worthy quickly
 
It still kind of bothers me that with this look, the mean looks relatively crappy after out ULL potential. I know I shouldn’t look too much into that stuff, but I find it surprising. I guess that’s because it’s too warm. From what Webber’s been saying, I’m not buying that yet.
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Ollie Williams said:
It still kind of bothers me that with this look, the mean looks relatively crappy after out ULL potential. I know I shouldn’t look too much into that stuff, but I find it surprising. I guess that’s because it’s too warm. From what Webber’s been saying, I’m not buying that yet.
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With the amount of blocking I wouldn’t worry yet, something could easily sneak into the 50/50 region/NE and serve as confluence under the block, For example the euro, Ensemble mean won’t show that well atm71C6A35C-4ABB-44BB-BFE1-298CC7994F77.png
 
ajr said:
Random -- do you know if MJO phase is uniformly distributed (e.g. is Phase 1 equally likely to Phase 6?)?
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I read a study and I confirmed the conclusions with my own counting of the days in winter in each phase that the % of winter days of the MJO being in the Maritime phases has increased markedly during the last 10 years or so largely due to warmer Maritime Continent waters. That in addition to GW is very likely a big contributor to our warmer winters.
 
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Chazwin said:
This is something I’ve noticed for the last several weeks. The MJO has been very low amped for the most part and at times has been in COD. The last several winters you could look at the MJO and see it going very close to the outside of the charts.
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Based on extensive analysis of several decades of KATL temp data, I found that during January that inside the COD has averaged markedly colder than outside. The January results are actually here in the blog:

Link:
SE US daily winter temperature anomaly analysis by MJO phase: inside the left side of circle coldest | SouthernWX

Likely related to this, ALL major ATL icestorms since the monthly MJO charts started occurred when it was inside the circle! However, the size of the sample being pretty small is very likely skewing the true underlying probability of major ATL ZR inside vs outside COD a pretty good amount.
 
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GaWx said:
Based on extensive analysis of several decades of KATL temp data, I found that during January that inside the COD has averaged markedly colder than outside. The January results are actually here in the blog:

Link:
SE US daily winter temperature anomaly analysis by MJO phase: inside the left side of circle coldest | SouthernWX

Likely related to this, ALL major ATL icestorms since the monthly MJO charts started occurred when it was inside the circle! However, the size of the sample being pretty small is very likely skewing the true underlying probability of major ATL ZR inside vs outside COD a pretty good amount.
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I need to learn more about the MJO... are there outlier cases of Eastern US cold that don't fall in the cold phases?
 
SETNwx said:
I need to learn more about the MJO... are there outlier cases of Eastern US cold that don't fall in the cold phases?
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There are a decent number of outliers going both ways as the MJO is but one of several major impacting factors. The best chance to find cold outside of the cold phases in January (with that chance highest inside left side of circle) is inside the right half of the circle as opposed to outside of the circle in the right side
 
GaWx said:
There are a decent number of outliers going both ways as the MJO is but one of several major impacting factors. The best chance to find cold outside of the cold phases in January (with that chance highest inside left side of circle) is inside the right half of the circle as opposed to outside of the circle in the right side
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Okay so if I’m reading this correct for January (cold -> warm): 1. Inside left 2. Cold phases 3. Inside right


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EastAtlwx said:
Okay so if I’m reading this correct for January (cold -> warm): 1. Inside left 2. Cold phases 3. Inside right


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More or less although the inside right actually averaged out not too much different from well outside in the cold phases with near normal.
 
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