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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

What a disaster. I'm going to side with bamwx here and agree there is no real cold coming anytime soon. We may luck our way into a storm but it will be just luck in a marginal stale airmass. Been seeing the can kicked down the road since Dec with true Arctic air and its time to accept reality.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
The pattern coming up is gonna have have huge run to run shifts, it’s that sort of pattern
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No doubt, just getting into that time of year we need to see some good trends soon. Still hopeful, I live in northern middle tn the middle and western parts of tn haven't got nada so far. East tn has done pretty good. Hopefully we can get a good timing of cold and moisture before it's too late. I don't think this is gonna be the year to hold out for late feb and march, certainly not for my area. The next 3-4 weeks are our window more than likely.
 
Ollie Williams said:
I’m not buying the cliff diving. Blocking is going to remain favorable as long as the strat warm is going on. The pacific is questionable, but the article should suppress a SER.
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Haha definitely not cliff diving im just messin lol, these volatile run to run changes are to be expected with this sort of pattern, but man we lost that first one on the UK 79120D42-B829-4B64-BFC0-4665B13EAD27.jpeg
 
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Very interesting thundershowers associated with the cold pocket aloft, getting up to 30kft which is pretty solid F012E801-8377-434F-9BCB-5A3EFA79B337.png63EBC02E-6370-46F0-B3DD-48585A76ACC9.png
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Don’t mean to bring bad vibes to the disco but damn. It’s wearing on me. Esp when up until now we’ve had some extremely favorable looks so far this winter @ 500mb. It’s one thing to not get snow when your pattern is ? but it’s another feeling entirely when you still can’t get snow even with a favorable pattern. Anyway, that’s where I’m at. Move to banter if you’d like idgaf
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Exactly what I have been saying. People don't want to admit it, but it really is harder to get snow here out of a supposedly good pattern than it used to be. That's why I am tried of all the talk about a good pattern that never actually shows up, or when we get one it still doesn't produce. It's just blind luck and whatever happens will happen.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Exactly what I have been saying. People don't want to admit it, but it really is harder to get snow here out of a supposedly good pattern than it used to be. That's why I am tried of all the talk about a good pattern that never actually shows up, or when we get one it still doesn't produce. It's just blind luck and whatever happens will happen.
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It’s always been about lucking out in a good pattern, there’s been several times where good patterns haven’t produced in the past, good patterns doesn’t guarantee a winter storm, it just increases the chance of getting lucky
 
Clem282340 said:
Do you believe we will get something like that or a scaled down version of it
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Any ensemble member is just a possible outcome but this one a very unlikely one ... some winter weather is possible in the southeast and I still like somewhere around the 17-20th for people living in the southeast to see some snow but where and what is hard to tell right now .. never think an ensemble member is truth or even a operational 7+ days out
 
Ollie Williams said:
I’m not buying the cliff diving. Blocking is going to remain favorable as long as the strat warm is going on. The pacific is questionable, but the article should suppress a SER.
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I'm not going to cliff dive on getting a decent snow before the end of the month. But I'm starting to really doubt any Arctic air makes it here where we don't have to worry about temps.
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Any ensemble member is just a possible outcome but this one a very unlikely one ... some winter weather is possible in the southeast and I still like somewhere around the 17-20th for people living in the southeast to see some snow but where and what is hard to tell right now .. never think an ensemble member is truth or even a operational 7+ days out
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Is this from the gfs and how many members did it show showing snow
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Any ensemble member is just a possible outcome but this one a very unlikely one ... some winter weather is possible in the southeast and I still like somewhere around the 17-20th for people living in the southeast to see some snow but where and what is hard to tell right now .. never think an ensemble member is truth or even a operational 7+ days out
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Can you post the full version of the gefs map
 
New GFS 6z: Then has 2 seperate Ice/Mix events way out 1/24 and 1/29. LOL all we got to salivate over this morning. Hopefully we get better news at 12z. But I'll be honest I'm not feeling or seeing it this morning looking at models. All I see is run of the mill climo wx. Which for everyone outside elevation is Highs in the upper 40's, lows in upper 20s near 30. Chilly, sometimes Cold Rains.

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Once again 6z GFS is not pushing any real cold into the se thru day 10. More of the same. Average temps and cold rain. The difference I see is maybe we have real cold off to the north and west to work with if we get lucky. I think it has better potential than the current pattern where we've torched our source regions for a month now with Pac flow. But it will dump in the west first and have to come east, but should be colder than we have now still. Maybe the NAO and the 50/50 will keep the storm track suppressed. But its clear the 15th thru the 25th is not going to be what many hoped for.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Once again 6z GFS is not pushing any real cold into the se thru day 10. More of the same. Average temps and cold rain. The difference I see is maybe we have real cold off to the north and west to work with if we get lucky. I think it has better potential than the current pattern where we've torched our source regions for a month now with Pac flow. But it will dump in the west first and have to come east, but should be colder than we have now still. Maybe the NAO and the 50/50 will keep the storm track suppressed. But its clear the 15th thru the 25th is not going to be what many hoped for.
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I would agree for the most part. The 500 15th-25th argues for colder temps. However surface temps during this time frame look average. Guess it’s still a waiting game.
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Way too many negative people out there with a pattern like this... guys chill out there’s more to winter than two sets of deterministic Gfs model outputs ??? patients is always rewarded
 
Freezing fog advisory here is a bust, but a very widespread frost for sure.
 
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