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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Dewpoint Dan
Member
How do you get rain from a stout ULL in the dead of winter ? Is that even possible ?
ATLwxfan
Member
The mountains get crushed. We can always take a roadtrip. But yeah it doesn’t look all that exciting otherwise. Heckuva winter for rain lovers though.
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We're missing a "good" high pressure to feed down the cold. As others have said, this thing has to generate its own cold; and we know how that usually works out.
Just watch the radar a week from today. It’ll be a clinic.
Boooo
Downeastnc
Member
Got big areas of standing water in my yard, typically only see them in tropical type systems or training thunderstorms, its rare to get them in the winter, calling for 1-2" more tonight so reckon they gonna get bigger.
I’ve seen it work in March but there just isn’t an inkling of cold to be found anywhere on this side of the northern hemisphere. We should be seeing at least some -20’s and -30’s up in to Canada by now.
ATLwxfan
Member
Those cold cores only work in Texas. But yeah that’s our only shot aside from altitude. Canada is
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BHS1975
Member
Yeah been a MASSIVE increase in rain the last couple years due to AGW. Gonna be a rainforest soon. I'm seeing a lot of heavy downpours lately that never happened before in winter.
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Yeah this was gonna be a problem with the first wave anyways, that’s why my expectations with it is quite low
BHS1975
Member
This just looks more likely imo 
LickWx
Member
Have to sniff the warmth to taste the cold . Canada torches and we are seasonably cold = bad . Canada freezes and we torch = better chance as there is cold to get . Even January 1985 got warm and hit 75 before the record cold .
GFS a good bit colder in 8-10 day with another S/W as noted. I think this time frame has a better shot
BHS1975
Member
That giant block ain't gonna help us until we get the cross polar flow.
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Like this one better, colder air in place, just need to get things in the right place 
Just like those 60 degree dewpoints in December right?
LovingGulfLows
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Mid level temps look fine, but of course, we're missing the low level cold air source. We would need to see a trend towards heavier precip to maybe get an adiabatic cooling process going. Looks interesting though....2 consecutives systems where the closed ULL is this far south.
Yeah this is all it manages to do, could be much better imo
LovingGulfLows
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With a look like that, the precip shield would likely be larger and further north due to overrunning.
RVD
Meteorology Student
Oh man that’s close. All you’d really need is a little more confluence from a stronger or more SE 50/50 low. I like that look at 500mb.
First system 
CIPS analogs look good! From day 6-14
Looks like a epic torchster fire to me
NoSnowATL
Member
JB is that you?
Speaking of JB you know he only cares about the NE, so he’s honking the horn, hopefully he jinxes it and it goes south lol
I mean I get it. Torching Canada does keep us reasonably “cool” and when Canada is in the freezer that doesn’t always translate to cold around here. It seems we at least need some tappable cold air at the very least in SE Canada. Enough to time a piece of high pressure with. As always, WNC and other areas that do well with marginal cold are still in the ballgame with the current pattern.
Probably has happened many times but no one remembers bc it was rain. Our snow climo would be much better if every decent look panned out
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
Day 6 UK
Last nights Euro was playing with the same idea.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Look how much colder it gets in the 12-14 lol
No kidding @metwannabe is in a good spot too
What a weenie ??
To add to this and I'm not trying to poop on your post @Jimmy Hypocracy but this setup reminds me of the old ones where the older gfs versions would show epic storms for days while the Euro would say no then the gfs would trend north
I don’t know about Raleigh, but I do know of only one pure “bowling ball”/upper low (i.e., with no accompanying cold surface high to the north and no low surface center to the south) that produced major snow (3.5”+) at KATL and that was early March of 2009. By far the best opportunity for ATL has been associated with a Gulf or near Gulf coast surface low that is often weak in combo with a well timed cold enough surface high that is still leading to cold air advection at or higher than 850 mb. So, often that surface high is then still located in the Midwest rather than the NE US. When the high is already in the NE, that’s when ATL is more likely to face a CAD based mainly IP/ZR because by then 850s are already rising above 0C. For either of these, the 500 mb flow is usually WSW or SW.
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