Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

[GaWx]

The complaining in here and other non-whamby threads, is overdone imo considering we’ve had the coldest start to winter in years. Also, the amount of complaining in these non-whamby threads is ironic considering the criticism that @ryan1234 was receiving recently for just trying to be realistic about the chances for snow in NC around Christmas. Double standard. All he was doing was trying to be realistic to minimize the chance of the later complaining.

I need to amend this post. I forgot that @ryan1234 had asked others to not post maps. That part was wrong and I apologize for forgetting that part of his post. But the general idea of him downplaying the Christmas snow threat is going to end up verifying well if I’m not mistaken. I see nothing wrong with downplaying as it is more often than not realistic. I sometimes downplay threats myself if they look like like they have a very low % chance.

 

[SD]

Judah has been chasing a PV split over the last three years like we chase 384 snowstorms


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I think the only year we didn't have one was last year.

 

[Clem282340]

It's too early to say, but I'd personally favor cold rain CADs in the upstate and Charlotte w/ this pattern

What do we have to change before upstate and Charlotte can see winter weather

 

[Tarheel1]

Very rrarely can we all get on the action! But GFS says, we can do it! Onset ice for y’all!

 

[Webberweather53]

Very rrarely can we all get on the action! But GFS says, we can do it! Onset ice for y’all!View attachment 59130

Looks just like last week's event down here, cold rain for everyone except perhaps the NW piedmont & mtns!

 

[GaWx]

Judah has been chasing a PV split over the last three years like we chase 384 snowstorms


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Fair enough. I even said he’s had his mistakes. But I still stand by my
post about his vast amount of knowledge. When a troll like the beloved Mack complains, I think it deserved retorts.

 

[Webberweather53]

We're gonna see an epic + E Asia mtn torque event later next week if the GFS is right.

Should provide us with a big Pacific jet extension & renewed +PNA in early Jan

 

[Clem282340]

We're gonna see an epic + E Asia mtn torque event later next week if the GFS is right.

Should provide us with a big Pacific jet extension & renewed +PNA in early Jan

Will that help upstate and the surrounding areas to see a winter storm is that the missing piece that we need to get one around here

 

[Storm5]

Fair enough. I even said he’s had his mistakes. But I still stand by my
post about his vast amount of knowledge. When a troll like the beloved Mack complains, I think it deserved retorts.

Oh I 100 percent agree . He is extremely smart and I’m not saying he is or has been wrong . I just see all he’s tweets about PV splits and I often feel like I’m reading this board discussing the long range


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[SD]

Oh I 100 percent agree . He is extremely smart and I’m not saying he is or has been wrong . I just see all he’s tweets about PV splits and I often feel like I’m reading this board discussing the long range


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You should look at the 12z gfs 10mb maps lol

 

[Webberweather53]

Oh I 100 percent agree . He is extremely smart and I’m not saying he is or has been wrong . I just see all he’s tweets about PV splits and I often feel like I’m reading this board discussing the long range


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This year if we see PV disruption it'll be a displacement & not a split imo

 

[SD]

 

[GaWx]

Oh I 100 percent agree . He is extremely smart and I’m not saying he is or has been wrong . I just see all he’s tweets about PV splits and I often feel like I’m reading this board discussing the long range


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Lol, there's little question that Judah has snow/cold weenie eternal optimist in him (though I don't think nearly to the extent of JB), which I'm actually not a fan of because it often leads to later disappointment. (See my 2 posts about an opposite case, the @ryan1234 downplaying , for example.) But he at least does show very detailed maps and other tools that support his often optimistic feelings.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Lol, there's little question that Judah has snow/cold weenie eternal optimist in him (though I don't think nearly to the extent of JB), which I'm actually not a fan of because it often leads to later disappointment. (See my 2 posts about an opposite case, the @ryan1234 downplaying , for example.) But he at least does show very detailed maps and other tools that support his often optimistic feelings.

And this year there’s actually a legit trigger to some warming/pressure on the PV from that Bering sea trough,

 

[Webberweather53]

The classic early warning signs are certainly there the next 2-3 weeks for a displacement (k = 1) sudden stratospheric warming event in early-mid January.

-Very persistent & intense stationary wave forcing (+EPO/+WPO) (only going to made stronger in late Dec/early January following the +EAMT event)
-Precursory tropospheric blocking in the N Atlantic
-A preconditioned stratospheric polar vortex (not terribly strong atm)
-Possible MJO event in the West Pacific in early-mid January or so?

 

[Clem282340]

The classic warning signs are certainly there the next 2-3 weeks for a displacement (k = 1) sudden stratospheric warming event in early-mid January.

Is this good or bad

 

[SD]

Btw I moved the cohen conversation to the whamby thread so it can be discussed there. Further conversation about that topic here will be deleted. This applies to Cohen or any other weather blogger/poster/tweeter going forward.

 

[wxdaniel]

Is this good or bad

Longer periods of colder air


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[Clem282340]

Longer periods of colder air


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Will that help the south east to have a better chance at a winter storm

 

[ajr]

We're gonna see an epic + E Asia mtn torque event later next week if the GFS is right.

Should provide us with a big Pacific jet extension & renewed +PNA in early Jan

Does +EAMT also support wave generation in the pacific? I feel like I read that somewhere, but I don't know if it's true or not.