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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

RVD said:
Oh snap- check that northern stream piece diving down over the Dakotas. Gonna phase with the southern stream cutoff and go neutral over Alabama. Cold air in place, SE Canada low, no WAR in sight at 850. Too bad this is 300 hours out.
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Consistency is key right ???C3CED941-5C62-493C-880D-71DF11B06931.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Seems like every time we get -EPO blocks tho we risk the Southeast ridge, we seem to lose everytime with the -EPO all or nothing pattern, I know a +EPO/+WPO/-AO/-NAO pattern sucks for cold with storms but at least the southeast ridge is suppressed with those indices like that View attachment 59245View attachment 59246
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If I had to pick one class of blocking, the most reliable blocking for the SE US, especially deep SE, is the W Canada block (+PNA). It is reflective in cold and snow multidecadal stats in Atlanta. If you then add the Greenland block, that's often an excellent combo that's hard to beat.
 
RVD said:
Close but not quite. That was a great look IMO for a big storm. Who cares about details, it's just fantasy-land entertainment. We all know what's really gonna happen.

Surface temps are a struggle with this depiction though. Why can't we get snowstorms in the 20s anymore? Last one I remember was Feb 2014.
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I really think we need better western ridging for better cold air delivery this far south. If we can manage a solid +PNA with the Atlantic block at the same time (as Larry likes to say) I think we set ourselves up for success. The Atlantic block more or less looks like to want to hang around. When we vacillate to Alaska thawing, that's the sign to look closely IMO.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I.e. almost the entire 12z EPS is showing a major sudden stratospheric warming event. This can certainly help us keep the -AO/-NAO gravy train going thru January and February.

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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
This site is becoming one of my favorites for looking thru past sudden stratospheric warming events (SSWEs) and the effects in the troposphere in the Northern Hemisphere


https://csl.noaa.gov/groups/csl8/sswcompendium/

A few examples of the kinds of plots you can make on this site:

JRA-55 snowfall & surface temperature composite anomaly 0-60 days after a SSWE (stippling indicates statistically significant anomalies)

The paper describing this data is available here: https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/9/63/2017/

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The 12Z EPS and GEFs and 18Z GEFS all imply a good chance for solid BN in the SE US for the first few days after New Years. This is awesome!

Also, fwiw for the SE wintry wx hounds, the 18Z GEFS for just after New Year's actually looks pretty interesting and I don't mean just flurries or anafront stuff and not just the northern SE. But that's still out in semi-cartoonland for now.
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z EPS and GEFs and 18Z GEFS all imply a good chance for solid BN in the SE US for the first few days after New Years. This is awesome!

Also, fwiw for the SE wintry wx hounds, the 18Z GEFS for just after New Year's actually looks pretty interesting and I don't mean just flurries or anafront stuff and not just the northern SE. But that's still out in semi-cartoonland for now.
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My interest in the period just after New Year's isn't just because the EPS and GEFS show solid BN and the 18Z GEFS shows it to be near to wetter than normal. It is also because of the GEFS' prediction for the PNA (~+1+), AO (~-2) and NAO (~-1). I realize that the GEFS has a bit of a -AO and -NAO bias that far out. But let's say there were to be no bias this time and the PNA/AO/NAO were to be +1+/-2-/-1-. If so, it would be the first single day with that combo since way back on 2/7/10. Going back to 1/1/2000, only these days meet these criteria:

- 2/7/10
- 1/6-8/10
- 12/8/02

What do these rare 3 periods have in common in the SE? They were all cold to very cold with significant wintry precip either during or within a few days of them in a good portion of the SE.

Also, helping is that the MJO looks to stay weak/inside circle. The best location would be inside (or just outside) left circle but inside has overall been colder than outside in January. So, I consider the MJO to be favorable for cold potential. Also, one thing to note about the 6 major ATL ZR's since 1978: they've all been when the MJO was inside the circle!
 
Clem282340 said:
If that run went couple more frames I believe it would deliver a southeast snow storm that’s a perfect location
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We might have been in for glory. Euro had a 1043 high pressure coming out of Canada at the same time too. I’m just salty that OKC gets all these snow storms and might get more while I’m gone for the holidays.l and winter break. LolA00112DF-AB7F-40BD-B2A4-5CDEA855C2E6.png
 
BufordWX said:
We might have been in for glory. Euro had a 1043 high pressure coming out of Canada at the same time too. I’m just salty that OKC gets all these snow storms and might get more while I’m gone for the holidays.l and winter break. LolView attachment 59581
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And as soon as you leave watch the southeast start getting snow. It seems to work like that for a southern snow lover.
 
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