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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Nick_boynton_ said:
If anyone needs a boost I present to you

00z GEFS ensemble member number 15

hour 348

birdman definition: things are now looking favorable for a swath of 12-16.5 inches of snow from Asheville to Raleigh and blizzard conditions with 45 mph looking likely on January 4thView attachment 59108
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birdman definition: things are now looking favorable for a swath of 12-16.5 inches of snow for Stokes and Wilkes and blizzard conditions with 45 mph looking likely on January 4th for Wilkesboro. The skies have healed and the birds are hungry.

FTFY
 
Webberweather53 said:
I hope I'm not jinxing us here when I say this: not gonna lie, I've been waiting for the shoe to drop on a torch pattern to rear its ugly head around here, I still don't see any definitive signs of one on the horizon (yet).

I mean... maybe we try to flip towards a more stereotypical NINA/-PNA look by mid-January as an MJO wave tries to encroach on the Maritime Continent. However, if we see a sudden stratospheric warming event begin to try & take hold by then, as the current hemispheric z500 pattern suggests, you might as well toss that idea out the window & just buckle up for the ride that'll ensue.

SSWEs matter more for Europe & it's basically a coin flip whether the pattern gets better or not after one begins around here.

Some research I did in passing on storms several years ago on winter storms in NC and global tropics circulation patterns showed that when we snowed, it usually occurred when -VP (cool colors) showed up between 30-60E longitudes over the East Indian Ocean. I suspect if there is a relationship, it has to do w/ a westerly wind duct opening up over the Tropical Atlantic, encouraging Rossby Waves over N America and the east Pacific to move equatorward.


Lo & behold, one of these 30-60E longitude -VP200 bursts is starting to show up on the models in early January as an MJO-like wave enters the Indian Ocean.

View attachment 58829


View attachment 58831
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It's concerning to me that the EPO, WPO, and PNA are not wanting to line up for us in the long term. What are your thoughts on these and how they may affect our winter?
 
FallsLake said:
I'm still hopeful:

PNA - Looks to stay positive into the LR
AO - Looks to stay strongly negative into the LR
NAO - Now looks to go negative in the LR (did have a more neutral look with past runs)

CPC - Climate Weather Linkage: Teleconnections (noaa.gov)
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I'm not sure what we're seeing is really a true -NAO. The block is too far east, with ridging where we need an averaged negative anomaly for our 50/50 lows. We need the big block further west over canada/western greenland, not the atlantic IMO. That's why I think the teleconnection is neutral and not very negative.
 
SnowNiner said:
I'm not sure what we're seeing is really a true -NAO. The block is too far east, with ridging where we need an averaged negative anomaly for our 50/50 lows. We need the big block further west over canada/western greenland, not the atlantic IMO. That's why I think the teleconnection is neutral and not very negative.
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Man I would say neutral is still better than we've had in many years. I would like to see the PNA more positive as we head into January. That and the AO (getting some of cross polar flow) could do the job.
 
tramadoc said:
Dude has a PhD and responds on Twitter. He is a snow lover just like the rest of us. He’s very scientific in his approach and just like us, he’s at the mercy of the models. I don’t think he’s a hack at all. He’s quite knowledgeable.
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I think most people on here don’t know him very well. I think several years ago he was wrong and one of two popular posters on here (and the other forum) called him out and everyone else joined in to be in the “in crowd”. I see that a lot.


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tramadoc said:
Dude has a PhD and responds on Twitter. He is a snow lover just like the rest of us. He’s very scientific in his approach and just like us, he’s at the mercy of the models. I don’t think he’s a hack at all. He’s quite knowledgeable.
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He’s had his mistakes for sure, but he still has a quadrillion times as much met. knowledge in his belly button as the folks in the peanut gallery complaining most about him have.
 
The complaining in here and other non-whamby threads, is overdone imo considering we’ve had the coldest start to winter in years. Also, the amount of complaining in these non-whamby threads is ironic considering the criticism that @ryan1234 was receiving recently for just trying to be realistic about the chances for snow in NC around Christmas. Double standard. All he was doing was trying to be realistic to minimize the chance of the later complaining.
 
GaWx said:
The complaining in here and other non-whamby threads, is overdone imo considering we’ve had the coldest start to winter in years. Also, the amount of complaining in these non-whamby threads is ironic considering the criticism that @ryan1234 was receiving recently for just trying to be realistic about the chances for snow in NC around Christmas. Double standard. All he was doing was trying to be realistic to minimize the chance of the later complaining.
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Agreed
 
whatalife said:
It's concerning to me that the EPO, WPO, and PNA are not wanting to line up for us in the long term. What are your thoughts on these and how they may affect our winter?
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Without a positive EPO & WPO we're not risking getting a SE ridge (as is often the case when both of those go negative). Oth, the PNA if it turns negative in late December probably wouldn't last long as the -NAO will force the western trough to progress east & turn into cut off upper lows over the east-central US & we'll see a +EAMT re-extend the Pacific jet in early January and restore +PNA if it's lost. We can certainly get winter storms with +EPO/+WPO/-PNA/-NAO, it's just that without a +PNA we almost certainly aren't going to see Miller A cyclones; all the winter storm cases in my archive w/ this teleconnection configuration featured only Miller Bs &/or hybrid/anafrontal setups. Also, outside of the mountains and far western & NW piedmont of NC, there was very little in the way of wintry weather from these +EPO/+WPO/-PNA/-NAO cases, which means in late December we'll be stormy & seasonable w/ lots of cold rain to go around!
 
Webberweather53 said:
Without a positive EPO & WPO we're not risking getting a SE ridge (as is often the case when both of those go negative). Oth, the PNA if it turns negative in late December probably wouldn't last long as the -NAO will force the western trough to progress east & turn into cut off upper lows over the east-central US & we'll see a +EAMT re-extend the Pacific jet in early January and restore +PNA if it's lost. We can certainly get winter storms with +EPO/+WPO/-PNA/-NAO, it's just that without a +PNA we almost certainly aren't going to see Miller A cyclones; all the winter storm cases in my archive w/ this teleconnection configuration featured only Miller Bs &/or hybrid/anafrontal setups. Also, outside of the mountains and far western & NW piedmont of NC, there was very little in the way of wintry weather from these +EPO/+WPO/-PNA/-NAO cases, which means in late December we'll be stormy & seasonable w/ lots of cold rain to go around!
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To reinforce this point, today's 12z GFS gets close 2 times within the first 9 days of producing another CAD/Miller B event. Granted, the mountains & NW piedmont of NC would be favored (if anywhere) to see frozen precip out of this.

1608568864625.png


1608568905522.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Without a positive EPO & WPO we're not risking getting a SE ridge (as is often the case when both of those go negative). Oth, the PNA if it turns negative in late December probably wouldn't last long as the -NAO will force the western trough to progress east & turn into cut off upper lows over the east-central US & we'll see a +EAMT re-extend the Pacific jet in early January and restore +PNA if it's lost. We can certainly get winter storms with +EPO/+WPO/-PNA/-NAO, it's just that without a +PNA we almost certainly aren't going to see Miller A cyclones; all the winter storm cases in my archive w/ this teleconnection configuration featured only Miller Bs &/or hybrid/anafrontal setups. Also, outside of the mountains and far western & NW piedmont of NC, there was very little in the way of wintry weather from these +EPO/+WPO/-PNA/-NAO cases, which means in late December we'll be stormy & seasonable w/ lots of cold rain to go around!
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So if we get a +epo +wpo -pna -nao the upstate sc over to the Charlotte area and eastern nc we won’t see a winter storm
 
GaWx said:
The complaining in here and other non-whamby threads, is overdone imo considering we’ve had the coldest start to winter in years. Also, the amount of complaining in these non-whamby threads is ironic considering the criticism that @ryan1234 was receiving recently for just trying to be realistic about the chances for snow in NC around Christmas. Double standard. All he was doing was trying to be realistic to minimize the chance of the later complaining.
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I need to amend this post. I forgot that @ryan1234 had asked others to not post maps. That part was wrong and I apologize for forgetting that part of his post. But the general idea of him downplaying the Christmas snow threat is going to end up verifying well if I’m not mistaken. I see nothing wrong with downplaying as it is more often than not realistic. I sometimes downplay threats myself if they look like like they have a very low % chance.
 
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Very rrarely can we all get on the action! But GFS says, we can do it! Onset ice for y’all!0F0F257D-1538-46F8-A38E-297CED4AD637.png
 
Storm5 said:
Judah has been chasing a PV split over the last three years like we chase 384 snowstorms


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Fair enough. I even said he’s had his mistakes. But I still stand by my
post about his vast amount of knowledge. When a troll like the beloved Mack complains, I think it deserved retorts.
 
Webberweather53 said:
We're gonna see an epic + E Asia mtn torque event later next week if the GFS is right.

Should provide us with a big Pacific jet extension & renewed +PNA in early Jan
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Will that help upstate and the surrounding areas to see a winter storm is that the missing piece that we need to get one around here
 
GaWx said:
Fair enough. I even said he’s had his mistakes. But I still stand by my
post about his vast amount of knowledge. When a troll like the beloved Mack complains, I think it deserved retorts.
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Oh I 100 percent agree . He is extremely smart and I’m not saying he is or has been wrong . I just see all he’s tweets about PV splits and I often feel like I’m reading this board discussing the long range


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Storm5 said:
Oh I 100 percent agree . He is extremely smart and I’m not saying he is or has been wrong . I just see all he’s tweets about PV splits and I often feel like I’m reading this board discussing the long range


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You should look at the 12z gfs 10mb maps lol
 
Storm5 said:
Oh I 100 percent agree . He is extremely smart and I’m not saying he is or has been wrong . I just see all he’s tweets about PV splits and I often feel like I’m reading this board discussing the long range


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This year if we see PV disruption it'll be a displacement & not a split imo
 
Storm5 said:
Oh I 100 percent agree . He is extremely smart and I’m not saying he is or has been wrong . I just see all he’s tweets about PV splits and I often feel like I’m reading this board discussing the long range


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Lol, there's little question that Judah has snow/cold weenie eternal optimist in him (though I don't think nearly to the extent of JB), which I'm actually not a fan of because it often leads to later disappointment. (See my 2 posts about an opposite case, the @ryan1234 downplaying , for example.) But he at least does show very detailed maps and other tools that support his often optimistic feelings.
 
GaWx said:
Lol, there's little question that Judah has snow/cold weenie eternal optimist in him (though I don't think nearly to the extent of JB), which I'm actually not a fan of because it often leads to later disappointment. (See my 2 posts about an opposite case, the @ryan1234 downplaying , for example.) But he at least does show very detailed maps and other tools that support his often optimistic feelings.
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And this year there’s actually a legit trigger to some warming/pressure on the PV from that Bering sea trough,
 
The classic early warning signs are certainly there the next 2-3 weeks for a displacement (k = 1) sudden stratospheric warming event in early-mid January.

-Very persistent & intense stationary wave forcing (+EPO/+WPO) (only going to made stronger in late Dec/early January following the +EAMT event)
-Precursory tropospheric blocking in the N Atlantic
-A preconditioned stratospheric polar vortex (not terribly strong atm)
-Possible MJO event in the West Pacific in early-mid January or so?
 
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