L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
How did the 06z gefs look?
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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Yeah they did.
Tarheelwx
Member
Quite a few blanks in there for central NC. A couple of big dogs are bringing up the average.
TW
(edit) - make that at least half are blanks for the triad area. Other Piedmont areas are roughly the same.
TW
(edit) - make that at least half are blanks for the triad area. Other Piedmont areas are roughly the same.
Here's WRAL's current take:
Snow possible late next week, but too early to tell :: WRAL.com
Snow possible late next week, but too early to tell :: WRAL.com
I’d say Sunday a thread could be needed, right @metwannabe ?
6Z GFS tried to get the northern stream to dive in earlier - that was close to a much bigger run. It seems like the two best options for the storm are either 1) have the southern wave slow down and allow the high to build in faster or 2) have this northern wave speed up and interact with the wave to drive in some very cold air and set off bombogenesis off the coast.
Agree but I'd say wait until then and if after the 12z models Sunday things still look good..... fire it up
I have about 10 hits out of 30 on those panels. But all are pretty solid coverings with those though.
Am I wrong in thinking with the 2nd option we do run the risk of it being a little more N/NW?
Deep
ajr
Member
I noticed this past year that as soon as I told my wife snow might be coming, the models trended against us in a big way. So this year, I'm going to do my part and not tell her snow is coming until I see it falling.
No, you're definitely right about that. But, with the amount of cold that would be injected into the storm, I think we would easily rake in the snow. In fact, I think that type of solution would likely put your area in the bullseye and probably for some pretty incredible totals if it happened.
06z EPS looked looked like it was about to be be pretty good, 0C 850s were crashing down (Ends at hour 144) 
Something I liked from the WRAL video is how they broke down the tracking of winter storms. At day 7-9 all you can really do is look at the pattern. The details are really useless at this range. Then at day 5-7 you're looking at the trends (up or down). Finally below day 5 you're looking at timing and precip types. This could help guide us for when we create a thread.; which I think should always be at or after day 5.