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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Myfrotho704_ said:
WE TOSS THE ICON View attachment 67061
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This sudden piece of the PV over south-central Canda that's popped up on the 12z vs. 00z ICON totally kills any synoptic forcing for descent --> building of high pressure over SE Canada. We don't want that around. Other models (inc. the earlier ICON) retrograde this piece westward.

If it's any consolation, we should be able to pick up on whether or not this will continue to be a problem relatively quickly- comparing the 12z and 00z ICON, early differences start becoming apparent as soon as hour 72. We'll probably know in the next day or so if this is a legit wrench in the machine.
 
The ICON was worse but our wound up PV lobe that was supposed to hang out near the Hudson Bay is approaching the US-Canadian border at day 4 and a few more runs of it dipping south will suppress the storm (again) at least initially
 
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RVD said:
This sudden piece of the PV over south-central Canda that's popped up on the 12z vs. 00z ICON totally kills any synoptic forcing for descent --> building of high pressure over SE Canada. We don't want that around. Other models (inc. the earlier ICON) retrograde this piece westward.

If it's any consolation, we should be able to pick up on whether or not this will continue to be a problem relatively quickly- comparing the 12z and 00z ICON, early differences start becoming apparent as soon as hour 72. We'll probably know in the next day or so if this is a legit wrench in the machine.
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That would be quite brutal if we lost a system to a random piece of energy in Canada, lol
 
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Honestly I don’t want the models painting us with the highest snow total this far out ... I still love the 12z models cause they all are showing this storm ... specifics are just specifics and they won’t get specific until 3 days out .. for now we ponder over ensembles and hope we have operational eye candy
 
Webberweather53 said:
Vort max travels right along I-40 on the GFS and there's less confluence over the NE US this run at day 4, thus a mid-Atlantic (VA-centric) hit. Needs to be near I-20 or this is a no go for NC folks
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We need more ridging to the west to push this thing southward.
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Honestly I don’t want the models painting us with the highest snow total this far out ... I still love the 12z models cause they all are showing this storm ... specifics are just specifics and they won’t get specific until 3 days out .. for now we ponder over ensembles and hope we have operational eye candy
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I'd actually prefer it to be waaay south at this juncture. We've had no problems with systems showing up in the mid-range all fall and winter. We just need a cold press, which we've been sorely lacking. I'm not worried about whether or not a storm will be there in the end. It likely will be. But if we're borderline now, then that probably isn't going to work out well.

Northern stream shortwaves that dip in and screw up confluence are typical, like what's being advertised here. Hopefully, it's wrong.
 
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