The Euro so far looks like it may pull an ICON. The piece of the TPV doesn’t get out of the way like the GFS, but is far enough north that it can stay out of the way. Better than 12z.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Yup! Through hr 156:
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Well yes the exact amounts sure but you can not deny that this setup isn’t similar because it 100% is. Take the Mar 1927 storm cut the totals by 2/3rds or what not you’re probably not too unreasonable in terms of expectations. That of course is still a lot of snow.
Been saying this all along but if If we play all our cards right, a mar 1927 lite storm is on the table
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
06z gfs reiterates the face that eastern/northeastern nc is going to get hit hard.
6z GFS, still looking good! View attachment 67041
6z GFS 10:1 snow at hour 165:
Clem282340
Member
Wow 0z gfs had it snowing in the upstate and on the 6z gfs there nothing
The 6z GFS (compared to 0z) low was quicker and shifted northeast which caused the highest QPF to shift NE, but we'll be seeing these shifts for the next few days. Hopefully not just shifting north.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
What are the chances that ratios actually end up being 10:1 ?
Looking at the 6z GFS, surface temps are below freezing for the N. Piedmont into the N. Coastal Plain of NC. RDU looks to be 29/30 during a good portion of the event. So maybe 10:1 for those areas. **Of course atmospheric temps play a roll as well
Rah NWS putting out a HWO already for potential wintry is pretty bullish on their part. Rn/sn in forecast too.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
You are in a really good spot imo
NCSNOW
Member
- Joined
- Dec 2, 2016
- Messages
- 9,540
- Reaction score
- 18,970
6z Nam @ 84 Compared to the 6zGFS at hr 84. The Nam has the TPV lobe futher east out ahead. Has in the great Lakes area as oppossed to NW of there. If that booger is around it needs to be on top of the GL like Webber said yesterday. Id rather see it out of the continental Picture all together on the models at H5 like the GFS has shown personally. "Whatever It Takes" Hopefully we can thread this needle right. Everyone on this board is past due & deserves to get plastered once for a change.
Yep same for my location. Here's the HWO:
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
432 AM EST Fri Jan 22 2021
NCZ007>011-021>027-038>041-073>076-231200-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-Stanly-
Montgomery-Moore-Lee-
432 AM EST Fri Jan 22 2021
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
Low pressure forecast to track across the southeastern United States
will result in the potential for wintry precipitation Wednesday night
and Thursday.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
$$
And here is RAH:
Beyond Wednesday, another upper wave will lift through the Plains
from the Southwest as a surface low again moves through the Deep
South and Southeast. There is again good moisture advection off the
Gulf with this system, but more interesting will be the potential
for some wintry precipitation over the area as the low moves through
the Southeast on Thursday. Obviously this will depend on the
temperature, track of the low and available moisture (all of which
are too difficult to pin down at this time). For now will continue
to watch this system but have introduced a chance for rain or snow
across the northern Piedmont and far northeast Coastal Plain.
Beyond Wednesday, another upper wave will lift through the Plains
from the Southwest as a surface low again moves through the Deep
South and Southeast. There is again good moisture advection off the
Gulf with this system, but more interesting will be the potential
for some wintry precipitation over the area as the low moves through
the Southeast on Thursday. Obviously this will depend on the
temperature, track of the low and available moisture (all of which
are too difficult to pin down at this time). For now will continue
to watch this system but have introduced a chance for rain or snow
across the northern Piedmont and far northeast Coastal Plain.
DadOfJax
Member
The upper midwest is about to load up! Time for a road trip!
znel52
Member
Here is where I live circled in red. Always battling the warm nose 
if this did happen I assume we would get changeover to snow at some point.
Sent from my SM-N986U1 using Tapatalk
if this did happen I assume we would get changeover to snow at some point. Sent from my SM-N986U1 using Tapatalk
BHS1975
Member