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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

SD said:
This morning was a good one it was frosted on the screens on the back porch and all of my rose bushes
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I actually had ice crystals standing vertical on the roof rails of the car. This isn't the first time i've had actual crystalline structure to the frost in the morning. If i could stack all the frost on top of each other, i might actually eclipse my snow total.
 
We've gone from not trusting models in the long range over the past few years to now not even believing them in the medium range. even ensembles are making drastic changes. We have gone from a warm SE and cold CAD areas with the potential for ice back to basically the pattern we have now but with a better chance for a board wide winter weather event. I'd be beating my head up against a wall if the products I used to help make a forecast were that bad at maintaining accuracy and consistency.
 
The GFS is not gospel, and even having multiple runs is not necessarily a trend worth entertaining. We're entering a pattern change, and models always have difficulty with those, and show the largest run-to-run changes. Look at this trend GIF of the last 10 runs. Of those 10, maybe the last 3 are the only ones showing some sort of consistency. "Trends" can be mirages, and I would be careful citing "trends" in the LR that are only 2 runs in a row.
 

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iGRXY said:
We've gone from not trusting models in the long range over the past few years to now not even believing them in the medium range. even ensembles are making drastic changes. We have gone from a warm SE and cold CAD areas with the potential for ice back to basically the pattern we have now but with a better chance for a board wide winter weather event. I'd be beating my head up against a wall if the products I used to help make a forecast were that bad at maintaining accuracy and consistency.
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This is why models cannot be used for a face value solution. Models are not suppose to show u the correct answer they are suppose to guide you as tools and show you what the correct answer could be ... you really have to look under the hood of a model to understand why it’s printing out what it is .. that and watching trends over a long term also helps. But I have also noticed through the years and as I have stated here before that the models give what they take .. I’ve seen it many times we see a large round of negative trends which then get reversed in the medium range a couple days after.. as I also said patience is key even with patterns like this .. fortunately I think we will be just fine soon .. models beginning to really look fun
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
This is why models cannot be used for a face value solution. Models are not suppose to show u the correct answer they are suppose to guide you as tools and show you what the correct answer could be ... you really have to look under the hood of a model to understand why it’s printing out what it is .. that and watching trends over a long term also helps. But I have also noticed through the years and as I have stated here before that the models give what they take .. I’ve seen it many times we see a large round of negative trends which then get reversed in the medium range a couple days after.. as I also said patience is key even with patterns like this .. fortunately I think we will be just fine soon .. models beginning to really look fun
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I hear you Nick but that doesn't tell me a whole lot. I look for stability & reliability. Not that a model (or models) shouldn't flip. They do and it is when there is recognition of an overall "change" based on new data inputs. Flip-flopping however into the medium range period can reduce their value and reliability.

As an example, this recent flip is not concerning. The models saw something, adjusted to reflect it in the forecast pattern, and now have tacked back. But what if they continue that behavior over next week going back and forth and back again. To quote an over used euphemism--That's not a good look. :)
 
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