Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

[Myfrotho704_]

Is that a cold trough (CAD)?

 

[ATLwxfan]

This is the worst run to run inconsistency I’ve ever seen. There is little to look at beyond D5. The trash heap of tossed model runs is growing exponentially.


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[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This is basically a canonical La Niña pattern, but a -NAO saving our asses, it’s almost headed back to what we just had in early January

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

This is the worst run to run inconsistency I’ve ever seen. There is little to look at beyond D5. The trash heap of tossed model runs is growing exponentially.


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I think it’s a very wild pattern .. with large amounts of blocking like we are seeing it’s much harder to predict how certain pieces will interact with others because the atmosphere is doing wild things under those blocks.. add in some SSW and youre bound to have inconsistencies.. I do believe as soon as they get a handle on the pattern things should start seeming more accurate and less wild.. they just need some time to figure out what the hoot is going on

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This euro run might do something

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Wow at the medium range changes

 

[deltadog03]

I like this EURO (this run lol) look in the end of the short term range.
You have the sub-tropical trof digging east and se of HI...You have a massive ridge going up over AK and building to the pole. You have a -NAO that is DEF. WEST based.... The SE ridge is there (sorta) but will be squashed later. Big high pressure building that will drop into the US.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That dump out west screws the southern plains/western SE, don’t want it that strong out west

 

[SD]

Monster wedge at D9 on the euro but the pattern as a whole is suboptimal

 

[deltadog03]

Monster wedge at D9 on the euro but the pattern as a whole is suboptimal

I feel like that dump out west comes out much fast than what the op run is showing... That is a nice high nosing down tho.

 

[SD]

I feel like that dump out west comes out much fast than what the op run is showing... That is a nice high nosing down tho.

I hope so, can't wait to see if the EPS supports it. Realistically even if it was legit that -nao would likely pay off for NC/TN not so much farther south

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[CaryWx]

Like the euro ensemble trend. Let's hope it continues or at least doesn't reverse. 6.5days. May be onto something that is closer to actually happening

 

[SouthGarnerSleet]

12z NAM3k spitting out some decent snowfall totals for the NC high country

 

[SD]

View attachment 65927

Welp there goes the warm weather, we better get a storm out of this. You were all thinking it don't downvote me

 

[Chandler]

Some big ones

 

[KyloG]

Past 3 EPS runs for day 7-12

 

[Ollie Williams]

View attachment 65932View attachment 65933
Some big ones

Sharply I-40 based though.

 

[SouthSideYankee]

One thing I’m noticing is the significant retrogression of the pattern, as the pacific block heads <<<<<<, so does the trough with it and the ridge out ahead, I’m noticing the models want to slowly retrograde our ridge to the central Us and SW, and bring the trough in the Atlantic towards the ECView attachment 65907View attachment 65908View attachment 65909

Not our typical ridge. We can very well snow if our boundary sets up correctly.