logic tells me that. But.....
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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
You’re quite what?
my tumultuous affair with these maps lol
Dewpoint Dan
Member
I think you meant quit, not quite.
hahaha yes.
Avalanche
Member
Oh my gosh yall be quiet.
yep that was my reaction for sure
#DOWNSLOPE CITY SMDH U CAN BURN THAT PIC TOO
ATLwxfan
Member
Has there been a more anticipated set of model runs this winter than this upcoming suite of 12z’s?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
What time are they out
Yes, I had anticipated yesterday’s runs more. After the trends with the warm nose, I’ve distanced myself from the weenie runs.
NAM ran at 8:45
ICON started at 10:00
GFSstarts at 10:30
CMC starts at 11:00
Euro at 12:45
EPS/Control at 1:45
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Feels like I'm beating a dead horse, but -------- this pattern around and just after mid-January is so fooking favorable for snow in the south. Can't believe I'm saying this, but this pattern is so good that I'll actually be legitimately surprised this time around if it doesn't snow at some pt in the Jan 15-25 period for a majority of this board, details obviously remain to be seen. On a scale of 1-10 in terms of favorability, this planetary-scale pattern is at least a 9.
Keep in mind the GEFS has had a very strong warm bias this winter in the medium-extended range and it's already showing 5-day averaged 850mb temp anomalies of up to -3 to -4C in parts of the south in the 11-16.
I mean... just wow lol.
Keep in mind the GEFS has had a very strong warm bias this winter in the medium-extended range and it's already showing 5-day averaged 850mb temp anomalies of up to -3 to -4C in parts of the south in the 11-16.
I mean... just wow lol.
I absolutely love where that trough sets up at the end of the GEFS. That’s where dreams are made if a s/w can set up there.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I'll have to get around at some point to updating my excel sheet with daily teleconnections and add in a column for daily AO.
I know on its own, it's honestly pretty rare to see the a -EPO/+PNA/-NAO/-AO of at least 0.5 sigma for each index across the board, so that alone is awesome. To give us a ballpark number to work with, I'm curious what the historical chance of accumulating snow has been in say central NC when we've had at least 5-10 consecutive days of at least 0.5 sigma -EPO, +PNA, -NAO, & -AO in January &/or DJF? I'd imagine that figure is probably gonna be pretty high
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It honestly doesn't get a whole lot better than that plus we're doing this in late January basically right at peak climo for snow too.
Looks a lot like the La Nina major SSWE composite.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Posts like this make me wish we had a more readily accessible nut emoji.
Yeah I been thinking the same thing @SD