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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

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Is it me or is this trending north each run? I'm headed to Boone middle of this week for a trip.
 
Models have oddly fallen into line on a certain scenario where that first storm cuts but get hit by that -NAO and fizzles but then another storm form and rushes towards the mountains and then gets shunted further south with redevelopment on the coast... that one has the potential that the cmc Gfs and Fv3 and euro showed earlier today ...
 
Ollie Williams said:
I'll save you some time my early risers..
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The Euro sucked and moved to the NE.
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Again the first storm is not ours anymore that brings the cold air .. which then produces the second storm I’ve been talking about which the euro just put this bad boy out CE17A876-D232-4822-B71C-3C683C688F39.jpeg
 
Euro has maybe showed more fantasy’s then the Gfs this year ! (Joking) but in all seriousness .. clearly it’s seeing something and this time period around the 29th has really been focused on the EPS .. and I’m sure will follow suit tonight .. or at least hope ??‍♂️
 
The January 24th-26th time period should definitely be monitored for a potential severe weather event over parts of the southeast. Euro showing a fairly stout looking system with dew points into the mid 60s across parts of Alabama and Mississippi, which is sufficient for late January. Good news is that this is still a week out and will see many changes hopefully away from severe weather, but definitely something to watch over the next few days.2D3CCAE0-E8E7-4CDA-A83B-F1932285E767.gifC7AF665A-6879-4911-B802-4DFD2FDE1461.gif9C80C4BE-E7E5-4CC3-853A-A9043D6EA245.png
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Again the first storm is not ours anymore that brings the cold air .. which then produces the second storm I’ve been talking about which the euro just put this bad boy out

This is perfect Annalysis: Both GFS @ 6z and Canadian & Euro from 0z send the Monday system up by us all and it drags the Cold down. Its the system on its heels that follows Wed/Thurs that lays a lick on esopeacilly NC. They all Jackpot Northern Coastal Plain of NC, but really all of nC does well. They key is all the operational models listed above show they exact same thing unfolding just as described above. Big consensus, but still 9 days out. Lets see how it shakes out. Should have a good idea by the end of this week as it will get under the magical 120 hr range.
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The only month in history not to break 60 at RDU was January 1977 which was our coldest January ever . Out of over 130 years only 1 didn’t break 60. If the EPS mean were right ( hoping Gfs pulls through ) then for the second time in over 130 years we will have a month not break 60. This is beyond exceptional. We are due a mega torch !
 
EPS, GEFS and GEPS all indicating some good high pressure finally making it's way southward during the D8-D10 range, which has been the key missing ingredient for keeping sustained cold air supportive of wintry weather into our latitude. Obviously need that high to get further southeastward, but may be something we can work with. Certainly lends a little more credence to this range that the EPS is excited about.

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sdm47 said:
EPS, GEFS and GEPS all indicating some good high pressure finally making it's way southward during the D8-D10 range, which has been the key missing ingredient for keeping sustained cold air supportive of wintry weather into our latitude. Obviously need that high to get further southeastward, but may be something we can work with. Certainly lends a little more credence to this range that the EPS is excited about.

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These little 1030 s high dropping down Not going cut it. Need some upper 1040s approaching 1050 even
 
Lickwx said:
The only month in history not to break 60 at RDU was January 1977 which was our coldest January ever . Out of over 130 years only 1 didn’t break 60. If the EPS mean were right ( hoping Gfs pulls through ) then for the second time in over 130 years we will have a month not break 60. This is beyond exceptional. We are due a mega torch !
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Weren't the last 2 January's and February's payment enough for this colder bout?
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Looking at the 6 hour members, a lot of them show something moving in from the NW (sorta miller b fashion) then it transfers quickly to a coastal/miller A, sound similar ?
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The good thing that we’re seeing is that it’s really wanting to put high pressure in the area that we need it. Give me a 1036-1038mb high in the right location the last week of January/ first week of February and I’ll take my chances.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Please just please be right, it’s been a month since I’ve smelled 60 if I’m not mistaken View attachment 66537
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The last time for me was 12/28...if it doesn’t hit 60 on the 26th, there is a real chance that KCLT could go the entire month of January without reaching 60 degrees. I don’t know that this has ever happened.
 
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