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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Interestingly enough, the EPS run looks extremely similar to late November, Early December 2018 (Timeframe where we got our December storm). Sure I'm cherry-picking a couple of maps, but almost identical look if we were to raise the height over Canada. To be clear the 2 maps from 2018 are not the same forecast period from two different models.
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-0169600.pngBCDCE723-3DC6-4AA5-849F-1D898AA90273.png040B5490-6847-4991-9EFF-C9AF3F55B133.png
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Not getting the trends we want out of this first system. EPS support really falling off and that's a very bleak sign.

But models are still spitting out a wide range of scenarios so there is still some significant wiggle room left.
The JMA is the closest I've seen to a monster but still its just too far offshore.

If there is a significant shift in the works we would likely see it in the next 24-36 hrs. Our energy is dropping down in the 120-144 timeframe so we should start to see some consistency run-to-run over the next few runs. Its in this 100-140 timeframe we usually see our significant trends if they occur. Of course they can happen up to hour 0 as well.

In my opinion this is becoming a long shot but its still totally a wintry threat.
At least it will feel like winter. 50s and 60s in the mountains is not winter lol.

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As an east of I95 poster I am right where I want to be. Zero expectations of anything happening with only improvements and a NW trend that can help me rather than kill my chances. It's close and like you said once the energy starts getting sampled and better handled we can still see changes.
 
Shaggy said:
As an east of I95 poster I am right where I want to be. Zero expectations of anything happening with only improvements and a NW trend that can help me rather than kill my chances. It's close and like you said once the energy starts getting sampled and better handled we can still see changes.
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Oh yeah it’s definitely still a real threat! Especially for Eastern NC and down into SC. But it’s nearing crunch time when you really want to see some positive trends.
 
If anything it looks like we’re going to have a transient warm up more than a transient cool down it’s staying cool just a blip of warmth showing up
 
pcbjr said:
I'd much appreciate it if you would forward that to CPC, pronto ... they seemingly have given up today (SMH) ... so much so I'll not even post their maps ... ;)
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From their accompanying disco:
'The ECMWF ensemble mean amplifies an upper-level trough over the Southwest, which results in an increase in 500-hPa heights across the Southeast and a warming trend after below normal temperatures on days 6 and 7."

"Since there are signs that the period of below normal temperatures may be short-lived, a two class change in the temperature outlook from yesterday was necessary for parts of the eastern
CONUS. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) recently strengthened, with its enhanced phase shifting east across the West Pacific. Lagged composites from this center of enhanced convection would tend to favor persistence of below normal temperatures across the central and eastern U.S. through Week-2. Since this MJO influence on the temperature pattern differs from the ECMWF model trend, forecast confidence is low in the temperatures outlook east of the Rockies. Below normal temperatures are most likely across the western Gulf Coast and lower Mississippi Valley due to an amplifying trough aloft. Increased chances of above normal temperatures across the Great Lakes and Northeast are consistent with the positive 500-hPa height anomalies over Canada, while Pacific flow favors above normal temperatures along the West Coast."

"The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 40% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 60% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11"

Note below how warm is the day 11 0Z Euro (12Z Euro similar)! The models, especially Euro ens, have warmed considerably since yesterday morning:

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GaWx said:
From their accompanying disco:
'The ECMWF ensemble mean amplifies an upper-level trough over the Southwest, which results in an increase in 500-hPa heights across the Southeast and a warming trend after below normal temperatures on days 6 and 7."

"Since there are signs that the period of below normal temperatures may be short-lived, a two class change in the temperature outlook from yesterday was necessary for parts of the eastern
CONUS. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) recently strengthened, with its enhanced phase shifting east across the West Pacific. Lagged composites from this center of enhanced convection would tend to favor persistence of below normal temperatures across the central and eastern U.S. through Week-2. Since this MJO influence on the temperature pattern differs from the ECMWF model trend, forecast confidence is low in the temperatures outlook east of the Rockies. Below normal temperatures are most likely across the western Gulf Coast and lower Mississippi Valley due to an amplifying trough aloft. Increased chances of above normal temperatures across the Great Lakes and Northeast are consistent with the positive 500-hPa height anomalies over Canada, while Pacific flow favors above normal temperatures along the West Coast."

"The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 40% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 60% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11"

Note below how warm is the day 11 0Z Euro (12Z Euro similar)! The models, especially Euro ens, have warmed considerably since yesterday morning:

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It's one heck of a ball game, Larry ... but I like your map (playbook) better! Yours actually makes more sense if one takes time to look at all the variables ...
 
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Honestly, this is what you want to see. It will change soon but this would be a great set up for a winter storm
 

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If you could actually take this run verbatim and have it happen, there'd be some problems since the ice is coming off a cold period. Who knows though if it's realistic since this version of the GFS has a bit of a suppression bias.

Not just a front end thump, it's a full blown ice storm.
 
Models always under do CAD we will see if the GEFS support but we have been seeing several members with a good cad storm just hasn’t shown up on an operational ... this is key
 
Unfortunately there's just enough weak ridging to have the LP from that fantasy system run inland, but there are areas getting pounded with heavy snow in the western SE.
 
That my friends is an intense snow band over NC. however over 300 hours out and it will be completely different on the next run. But nice to see for now
 

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John1122 said:
The EPS had this same look in the same timeframe. That would be a near board wide dream storm.
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The biggest increase in the ensemble members was around this same time frame. Maybe it will verify.

Sent from my SM-J727U using Tapatalk
 
I like what I’m seeing on GFS/EURO ensembles. Get the cold starting this weekend and the dice starts rolling MULTIPLE times for winter storms. I’m starting to sound like a broken record but when parts of the Appalachian Mountains go below zero degrees I highly DOUBT it’s gonna be rain with future systems. With that said we got to get to this Friday first to start the new cold pattern and see how things look then.
 
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