Six Mile Wx
Member
May be too early to tell.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
From DT: Aleet Aleet! Not really..........
I still see 2 threats for NC VA MD DEL...Jan 22 AND especially Jan 25.
Remember VA MD NC WVA DEL ... we are not PA ... we are not New England ...or OH or IND. Most of the time when WE get moderate or significant snows it occur when the cold air is already in place. In these other places I just mentionerd it is much easier to get rain changing over to snow with significant accumulations. In this portion of the country outside the mountains of VA western MD and WVA ....the climatology / history of winter storms strongly favors having the cold air in place first before the storm actually begins. Have a colder come in at the last possible second almost never works out in this area
I still see 2 threats for NC VA MD DEL...Jan 22 AND especially Jan 25.
Remember VA MD NC WVA DEL ... we are not PA ... we are not New England ...or OH or IND. Most of the time when WE get moderate or significant snows it occur when the cold air is already in place. In these other places I just mentionerd it is much easier to get rain changing over to snow with significant accumulations. In this portion of the country outside the mountains of VA western MD and WVA ....the climatology / history of winter storms strongly favors having the cold air in place first before the storm actually begins. Have a colder come in at the last possible second almost never works out in this area
Nomanslandva
Member
MJO looping back to high amp 5 would be NOT GOOD IMO. Hopefully that is not reality.
EDIT: Maybe I totally misunderstood it too
Last edited:
ATLwxfan
Member
tennessee storm
Member
In other words. It’s about get cold... he is saying ...
I was thinking a +AAM was better for us overall (other factors have to be considered too) but favorable none the less
Jon
Member
He’s basically just saying the 850mb westerly wind burst is influencing the RMM phase diagrams, and that the MJO is not really at a high amplitude but is being projected high on RMM phase diagrams due to the WWB and will come back down to earth once the WWB dies down, which is probably that drop toward the circle of death in the phase diagrams that we see (without going into phase 8)
It looks like a real MJO by RMM components (OLR, U850, VP200) etc so I’m not quite sure the meaning, he may think it might not have much influence into feb? Or he may not have a “impact for winter” point and is just talking about MJO phase diagrams because that’s what he does. Kinda how HM talks about stuff but doesn’t necessarily link it to a long range winter consequence.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Models will probably begin picking up on this more significantly and we can start seeing positive trends for the storm aspect of things regardless cold is coming
I remember awhile back @GaWx had a post about Atlanta winter storms and the MJO phases and surprisingly, Atlanta had a lot of storms in phase 4. The MJO is obviously just part of the equation and the warm phases aren't always warm and the cold phases aren't always cold (Feb 2019 for example). Me I'm personally more concerned about the strong tPV and lack of any blocking up there more than the MJO at this point for getting a sustained cold pattern.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I’m at the 100th annual AMS conference in Boston and I had a poster presentation earlier today.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with phase 7 in January, it produces about twice as many winter storms as any other mjo phase at any time of the year. Safe to say we’re completely fine
Icon gets something going later in the run log snow in central/ eastern nc
Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
Jon
Member
Pretty sizable change
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Buckle up because the rest of this run is about to be chaotic I feel. The wave behind the one that has been producing for Texas seems even closer now, lets see what happens.
Stormlover
Member
From Jason Simpson about Huntsville
This is in Celsius AND it's about 5,000' above the ground, but a little bit of math can tell you what this would be as a daytime high next Tuesday (if it were exactly right). That would be about 26ºF *for a high temperature.*
Let's say it's off by 10 degrees (too cold by 10ºF). That's still a doggone cold day!
We're expecting that we are at least looking at highs in the 30s/40s and lows in the upper 10s and lower 20s.
Huntsville is right about 9ºF above average for January so far; Muscle Shoals is close to 10ºF above average. It could get so cold, so fast, and so long that we end January with practically 'average' temperatures (the monthly average, that is).
This is in Celsius AND it's about 5,000' above the ground, but a little bit of math can tell you what this would be as a daytime high next Tuesday (if it were exactly right). That would be about 26ºF *for a high temperature.*
Let's say it's off by 10 degrees (too cold by 10ºF). That's still a doggone cold day!
We're expecting that we are at least looking at highs in the 30s/40s and lows in the upper 10s and lower 20s.
Huntsville is right about 9ºF above average for January so far; Muscle Shoals is close to 10ºF above average. It could get so cold, so fast, and so long that we end January with practically 'average' temperatures (the monthly average, that is).
Much different than last run
18z
00z
18z
00z
One thing for sure GFS not really biting on the coastal next week, yet. Trough was deeper but too far east
Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Looked like for a minute that some form of precip may actually survive, but nope. The energy's looking too strung out and although the southernmost piece is weaker, it seems like it's still affecting it.
Also another problem, the HP is weaker.
Edit: I lied, the southernmost piece of energy might end up playing in on the third wave, which will likely be too warm again here.
Also another problem, the HP is weaker.
Edit: I lied, the southernmost piece of energy might end up playing in on the third wave, which will likely be too warm again here.
Last edited:
Yep on to the euro. That's one nice cold shot early next week though may end up with a day that stays below freezing
Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
L
Logan Is An Idiot 01
Guest
If you love snow like myself I'm so sorry. Just about everything that could go wrong for snowlovers is going wrong in the 00z run and has-been going on for the last several runs. This is a trend and once it trends warmer and Rainier it tends to stick that way.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 01
Guest
I spy the death ridge coming back in the 00z run with of course another rainstorm. Enjoy the dry weather while you can! Too bad it's going to be freezing cold lol
I like what is shown. Cold prior then turns stormy. I bet that 37 with monster rains trends colder for western NC with leftover dry cold air at the surface. Could be a major winter storm around Jan. 25th.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 01
Guest
Highly doubtful western NC goes from the low to mid teens to 37 all rain as shown. Screams major winter storm for climo areas.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 01
Guest
Where do you see 37? This is the time the storm comes through. In the 50's and 60's
Attachments
No comment
L
Logan Is An Idiot 01
Guest
Only thing I can say is cold=dry warm=wet. And timing NEVER works out for anything except rain
Incorrect. Try hour 240 when there is a lot of heavy precip.
I’ve pondered on this for the last month; I’m starting to think we’re going to need a weak wave to score in 2020..but that STJ is juiced up and has been for some time. I don’t think it will allow it
L
Logan Is An Idiot 01
Guest
I did. 38 in the highest elevations. Upper 40's in Piedmont
if you can wet bulb from 37 to below freezing with dew points in the low 40’s and quickly rising, then yes warning criteria event
Last edited:
L
Logan Is An Idiot 01
Guest
GFS hiniting at a more SERIOUS Arctic outbreak toward the end of the run. Will this pan out? Could there be a storm? The answer is probably no.
Guess your wrong again for both locations.
It’s not zero.. Still a lot of spread
Like I said, I doubt climo areas warm up that quickly. My comment still stands, Winter storm potential there.
DT's latest video hinted at a polar vortex attack into Feb. It's certainly on the table as a possibility. CFS, yeah yeah, is showing big time arctic outbreak then:
You’re right. It’s there. But that was not a wintry run for anyone. Lucky for everyone though it will change again in 6 hours
Models usually wrong and too warm after days of cold. Be very RARE for a complete rain storm to follow on the heels of this. I would think starts as major winter weather for many esp foothills/mtns around the 25th. 
Gefs members continued to show that pesky little clipper esk wave dive down trying to mueve with the coastal .. several members gives a good area of snow showers breaking out across SC and NC .. have to watch that potential and a lot more members were juiced up for the next system than last run ... we’re definitely no where near a final solution on either cases.. again no one should be panicking about a threat for one day in late February not planning out .. they won’t all pan out every time obviously ? .. y’all are looking an one operational run at 250 hours out taking it exactly verbatim .. why can’t we stop doing that when we know it’s different in 6 hours