It's less of a long shot than many others things we have followed. It may not work for us but this has roxboro to GSO written all over it
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
No winter weather advisories. Special weather statement issued by GSP. We’ll take what we can get at this point. This could be our 4th “icing” event.
yea if we get a run with a stronger lp with some heavier precip i think you'll see the euro snow output improve for sure. verbatim just not heavy enough to overcome the 950s this run, but this may be the best look we have had all winter inside 180hrs.
Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
244 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2020
...ACCUMULATING ICE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...
.Precipitation is expected to develop over the North Carolina
mountains beginning this evening. Although temperatures will
initially be above freezing, allowing just rain to fall across
much of the area, the falling precipitation is expected to cool
the atmosphere, with freezing temperatures developing in some
locations after midnight, especially across Avery County. Light
ice accumulation is expected along the Blue Ridge escarpment,
especially across much of Avery County. Temperatures are expected
to warm above freezing by around sunrise, allowing precipitation
to change back to rain.
NCZ033-240400-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WW.Y.0003.200124T0500Z-200124T1200Z/
Avery-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, and Newland
244 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2020
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
7 AM EST FRIDAY...
* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations of up to
one tenth of an inch.
* WHERE...Avery County.
* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 7 AM EST Friday.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Oh just one county. Highest average elevation county in the state.
My dew point is 14. Gonna be a few more counties seeing sleet and zr briefly.
Nomanslandva
Member
Yea, I can't see H5 on free maps but it looks like there is more energy about 36 hours later that tries to fire a coastal where he first one washed out. looks like we need those 2 pieces together but not so early that it cuts.
Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
317 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2020
...Light winter mix Friday morning...
.Low pressure tracking across the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes
will spread rain across the Mid Atlantic region on Friday and
Friday night. The precipitation will begin as freezing rain, sleet
or snow across parts of southwest Virginia, northwest North
Carolina and southeast West Virginia.
NCZ001-002-018-VAZ015>017-240500-
/O.NEW.KRNK.WW.Y.0004.200124T0500Z-200124T2300Z/
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Boone,
Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, Galax, and Floyd
317 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2020
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
6 PM EST FRIDAY...
* WHAT...Freezing rain, mixed at times with sleet and snow in the
morning, changing to rain by the afternoon. Total snow and
sleet accumulations of up to one inch. Ice accumulations of
around one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.
* WHERE...Portions of southwest Virginia and northwest North
Carolina, mainly along the Blue Ridge.
* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 6 PM EST Friday. A majority of
the freezing rain, sleet and snow will be from 4AM through 10AM.
Then temperatures will be above freezing for the rest of the
day.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
317 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2020
...Light winter mix Friday morning...
.Low pressure tracking across the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes
will spread rain across the Mid Atlantic region on Friday and
Friday night. The precipitation will begin as freezing rain, sleet
or snow across parts of southwest Virginia, northwest North
Carolina and southeast West Virginia.
NCZ001-002-018-VAZ015>017-240500-
/O.NEW.KRNK.WW.Y.0004.200124T0500Z-200124T2300Z/
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Boone,
Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, Galax, and Floyd
317 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2020
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
6 PM EST FRIDAY...
* WHAT...Freezing rain, mixed at times with sleet and snow in the
morning, changing to rain by the afternoon. Total snow and
sleet accumulations of up to one inch. Ice accumulations of
around one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.
* WHERE...Portions of southwest Virginia and northwest North
Carolina, mainly along the Blue Ridge.
* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 6 PM EST Friday. A majority of
the freezing rain, sleet and snow will be from 4AM through 10AM.
Then temperatures will be above freezing for the rest of the
day.
Pivotalwx has 500mb now and its free
Foothills counties also included in some wintry weather but window is too brief per NWS. says a short fuse special weather statement may be issued in the middle of the night so no one sees it. (Surry/Wilkes).
GFS wasn’t that far off either. Lots of changes likely, but at least we have a shot.
Nomanslandva
Member
Yea, we seem to have busted low by about 5 degrees so I guess that is why advisories went up here. 42/15 here
im desperate over here I'll take a piece or 2 of sleet and be happy!
packfan98
Moderator
I bet the GFS would have the snow storm if the low track didn't cut inland. I do not think it would cut inland like that. Both 12z GEFS and EPS show a western ridge building (+PNA) at the time the low pressure begins developing. They also show some blocking in the NAO region, so I expect to see a -NAO. The western ridge would force the jet to dip south over the east allowing deep cold air to push south/southeast. The low would track either east/northeast, up along the southeastern coast and up the Eastern Coast.
Sent from my SM-A102U using Tapatalk
Was just about to post...that's not a trivial number of members.
Here's the trend from the past 6 runs. If you stare at the Jan 30th date you can really see a nice trend.
Greensboro sucks RDU or bust
Simply a joke lol ?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
To couple with the nice trends we're seeing at the end of the month, that blowtorch we were promised (especially for the northern US) is evaporating on the models.
