Canadian getting ready to smack the FailV3 around:
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
Storm5
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
To piggy-back off the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) posts from yesterday, it's worth mentioning that wave-1 displacements of the polar vortex like the one that was forecast on the long-range GFS yesterday are usually highly baroclinic in nature, which means the geostrophic wind veers with height and that the vortex is also tilted.
During polar vortex splits (wave-2), the vortex is usually barotropic or vertically stacked, thus there's no vertical shear in the geostrophic wind.
Just can see the wave 1 displacement and aforementioned vortex tilting nicely on this LR GFS forecast from Zac Lawrence's site, notice how in the upper levels the vortex tilts towards the west. Keep in mind this plot only analyzes the portion of the polar vortex in the stratosphere (down to 150mb), the vortex is even more tilted if you also include the troposphere!
Zac Lawrence's site: https://stratobserve.com/
During polar vortex splits (wave-2), the vortex is usually barotropic or vertically stacked, thus there's no vertical shear in the geostrophic wind.
Just can see the wave 1 displacement and aforementioned vortex tilting nicely on this LR GFS forecast from Zac Lawrence's site, notice how in the upper levels the vortex tilts towards the west. Keep in mind this plot only analyzes the portion of the polar vortex in the stratosphere (down to 150mb), the vortex is even more tilted if you also include the troposphere!
Zac Lawrence's site: https://stratobserve.com/
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The underlying lesson of this post and the series of posts by @Jon & I yesterday is that the location of the stratospheric polar vortex doesn't automatically correspond with where the coldest air will be in the lower troposphere. This is only true (sometimes) with polar vortex splits, but even then, the coupling & relationships are still a bit tenuous.
Therefore, the stratospheric polar vortex moving towards Eurasia doesn't mean the cold air in the lower troposphere will follow it, it's liable to stay in our backyard over Alaska for the foreseeable future.
If we can finally get a legit -EPO in the long range, we'd have the coldest air (relative to normal) in the entire NH over Alaska come hurdling towards us.
This is just my opinion but look pre 1930s. Its more proof our climate is changing. Now weather you want to blame that on industrialisation that's up to you but look at the average before and after the 1920s very telling imho.......carry on
I am doubting most of the features of the site are going to work through tapatalk.
Six Mile Wx
Member
It’s really unacceptable!
Gfs basically had a shallow west coast ridge from hour 180-384
Storm5
Member
The telles aren't impressive, but the image below is interesting. Don't recall seeing this kind of look before at H5, which makes me think it won't look this way in 16 days. Anyway, hopefully the GFS is onto something with the MJO.
For at least the 10th or so run in a row, the Euro has flurries over much of metro Atlanta this morning or at least had as of 7AM, mainly NW metro. Anyone there see any? I want to know whether this verifies:
Westganick
Member
Nothing
There has been returns on radarscope but it's obviously light. I asked some folks up in the upstate of SC this morning if they saw anything under the returns and they said they didn't see anything. Also, I don't see anything on radarscope with anyone reporting snow around the ATL area. It was snowing in the mountains earlier this morning. Places like Waynesville, NC got a good dusting.
Rosie
Member
Nothing here.
Looks like a switch to a -EPO was about to happen, and a west based -NAO was getting going with several wave breaking 50/50 lows
It works for me as well, I just don’t get the added pluses that the web page has.
I doubt you would. American has different reactions, and all you can do is like on there.
Nada here. In fact, the sun is coming back out.