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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Current convection doesn't look too far off from the Australian Board of Meteorology's version of MJO phase 1

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GaWx said:
The 18Z EPS is continuing a general trend of inching toward the coast and is actually kissing parts of the NC coast with light precip. In the Wilmington coastal area, it has it starting around Tue at sunset and continuing though much of Tue night. Most or all of this would be snow from all indications. Keep watching it, especially coastal folks, as this is still not a done deal/48 hours away and moderate precip is only ~30 miles offshore/heavy only 75 miles offshore!

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One thing I note right now is how steep the low level lapse rates are going to be with this ULL. Any mode of insolation could fire up CU towers capable of quick bursts of precip...much like the summer does with afternoon convection.
 
GaWx said:
Per Euro, yes especially N half of AL has a chance during a portion of tomorrow and tom night (may be two waves of it)! Euro has patches of light snow, flurries, etc. Enjoy it!
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I think my area around Tuscaloosa maybe a little to far south but if I see snowflakes I will take it
 
Stormsfury said:
One thing I note right now is how steep the low level lapse rates are going to be with this ULL. Any mode of insolation could fire up CU towers capable of quick bursts of precip...much like the summer does with afternoon convection.
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and if you were to get under one of those it can pile up in a hurry... February 2013 is great example of that in CLT. A line of thunderstorms with heavy snow came through and put down 2-3 inches in a little over an hour throughout the metro area
 
Nice walking wx here this evening of 49 and a decent breeze.

Meanwhile, the 0Z NAM keeps the precip well offshore. If the 0Z consensus doesn’t come in any closer, especially the Euro and ICON, it may then be time to bring the chance of sig precip making it back to the coast to under 5%.
 
GaWx said:
Nice walking wx here this evening of 49 and a decent breeze.

Meanwhile, the 0Z NAM keeps the precip well offshore. If the 0Z consensus doesn’t come in any closer, especially the Euro and ICON, it may then be time to bring the chance of sig precip making it back to the coast to under 5%.
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Early 0Z ICON maps MAY be suggesting that things will be further west once the coastal gets going. We’ll know soon.
 
0z Icon puts snow in MYB, Wilmington looks like for 3 to 4 hours. Also has mixing fri night into sat WNC, mostly 85% rain. You can get precip type outputs on weatherus model page.

Also big wrap around snow , esp northern mtns sun into monday
 
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deltadog03 said:
I can’t believe I’m posting this. Lmao HR36 HRRR says well.....this.....
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I wouldn't be surprised if some isolated areas of N GA get some flurries as the upper level trough swings over. It'll probably attempt to wring out as much moisture as it possibly can. Even on the recent NAM/GFS, it shows isolated pockets of moisture in the mid levels.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
I wouldn't be surprised if some isolated areas of N GA get some flurries as the upper level trough swings over. It'll probably attempt to wring out as much moisture as it possibly can. Even on the recent NAM/GFS, it shows isolated pockets of moisture in the mid levels.
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Do you want to be directly under this closed contour as it passes overhead? or is there more to it than that?C0183227-053F-434F-BD8B-B09E53A9ECAA.jpeg
 
Well I have been noticing (for GA) there is a nice easterly or NE flow that sets up from the SFC to about 800MB. That is providing higher RH levels. (Increasing on models as well). There will be plenty of lift as well with that strong shortwave/ULL. To be honest, I’m still a little bit surprised there isn’t more showing up like the HRRR. We shall see. Euro sorta sees it.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Do you want to be directly under this closed contour as it passes overhead? or is there more to it than that?
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The little moisture available comes between hours 30-36. The moisture is definitely under the 500 mb closed contour.

deltadog03 said:
Well I have been noticing (for GA) there is a nice easterly or NE flow that sets up from the SFC to about 800MB. That is providing higher RH levels. (Increasing on models as well). There will be plenty of lift as well with that strong shortwave/ULL. To be honest, I’m still a little bit surprised there isn’t more showing up like the HRRR. We shall see. Euro sorta sees it.
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It's really dry at the 925mb height. Whatever might fall would probably dry up before it reached the surface even if the midlevels were moist enough. Light flurries is probably the best anyone should expect, if anything at all really.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
The little moisture available comes between hours 30-36. The moisture is definitely under the 500 mb closed contour.



It's really dry at the 925mb height. Whatever might fall would probably dry up before it reached the surface even if the midlevels were moist enough. Light flurries is probably the best anyone should expect, if anything at all really.
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Good old virga storm


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Euro picking up on some onset frozen precip in MS. Mountains looking good.
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Take it for what it's worth, but the EPS ensembles are very much in agreement that we start Fab Feb with a pretty dogone stout +PNA and a pretty good pattern. They burnt us before, but it's much better than showing torch.

In the shorter range, the Euro is bowling ball city. Who knows with the right track and timing someone may score.
 
It’s not really a snowstorm pattern to say the least but it’s not a torch pattern either. In the past I would have rather liked the 60-70F’s if it wasn’t going to snow but now I will happily take any seasonal temps we can get. The 60-70F’s probably aren’t to far away though.

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KyloG said:
It’s not really a snowstorm pattern to say the least but it’s not a torch pattern either. In the past I would have rather liked the 60-70F’s if it wasn’t going to snow but now I will happily take any seasonal temps we can get. The 60-70F’s probably aren’t to far away though.

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Yep the EPS keeps inching near climo. It had 57 for two days in a row and close to mid 50s thru to February. Good to see it trending colder.


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