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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

7BAD9E69-C66E-4BE4-A4E9-8F7CD5FB342B.gifThis loop is from the last 5 ICON runs: focus on the yellow area of precip SE of the Carolinas and you’ll see it has been tending to inch westward closer to SC (~100 miles or 25 miles per run). Now look at the change from run to run in the surface isobar pattern just below that yellow area. If you look closely, you can see pressures are lowering there and are getting pinched off more and more. And the general tendency has been lower pressures further west. As that has happened, the yellow area to the north has been inching westward.

The 12Z GFS and CMC were very slightly better than their prior runs.

I remain at a 5% chance for significant snow to reach somewhere on the coast. I was at 10% yesterday. So, I’m lower now but won’t drop it any lower due to the slightly better tendencies at 12Z.

Let’s see what the King has in store later. He has a lot of weight.
 
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Those of us to the west still need to watch this onset.
gfs_asnow_seus_20.png
 
I know it isn’t a good model. So, this is fwiw. But check out this change in the JMA precip vs the run from 24 hours ago: note the huge increase 100 miles offshore the Carolinas! This is consistent with that loop I just posted of the changes in the ICON over the same 24 hour period. The pink is 2-2.5” of rainfall. Cut that in half (since it tends to be about twice too heavy) and it still is over 1”.

B4E3FAB0-8FD8-4D9C-8722-2A54577ACC64.gif
 
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GaWx said:
I know it isn’t a good model. So, this is fwiw. But check out this change in the JMA precip vs the run from 24 hours ago: note the huge increase 100 miles offshore the Carolinas! This is consistent with that loop I just posted of the changes in the ICON over the same 24 hour period. The pink is 2-2.5” of rainfall. Cut that in half (since it tends to be about twice too heavy) and it still is over 1”.

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If it were colder and we had an armada...


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GEFS looks just darn fine to me. I’ll take that plus and active STJ and roll the dice.


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ATLwxfan said:
GEFS looks just darn fine to me. I’ll take that plus and active STJ and roll the dice.


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Gefs showing some back side wrap around snow for the southeast next week for MS/AL and TN
 
ATLwxfan said:
If it were colder and we had an armada...


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It would likely be just cold enough for wintry through to about this time (12Z Wednesday) should it make it to shore.

The 12Z Euro is similar/a hair better than 6Z. But it is still no dice/offshore.

Also, similar to the last few runs, the Euro has an area of light snow flurries/showers (looks convective) moving ESE with the upper low Monday night into early Tue afternoon from TN through N MS/N AL and then into GA/SC (even going all the way to the coast very briefly). The GFS and CMC don’t have this. Moisture is quite limited with this.
 
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This pattern is hardly a blowtorch in the southern us the next 10 days or so, when your ridge axis is over the Hudson Bay coupled with a strong subtropical jet, seasonable and wet is the way to go. The 40 corridor and points north are still capable of sneaking a storm in if we make a few minor tweaks to the pattern and timing of the incident waves is perfect
 
Webberweather53 said:
This pattern is hardly a blowtorch in the southern us the next 10 days or so, when your ridge axis is over the Hudson Bay coupled with a strong subtropical jet, seasonable and wet is the way to go. The 40 corridor and points north are still capable of sneaking a storm in if we make a few minor tweaks to the pattern and timing of the incident waves is perfect
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I’m thinking we can still salvage this winter in Fab Feb.


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Webberweather53 said:
This pattern is hardly a blowtorch in the southern us the next 10 days or so, when your ridge axis is over the Hudson Bay coupled with a strong subtropical jet, seasonable and wet is the way to go. The 40 corridor and points north are still capable of sneaking a storm in if we make a few minor tweaks to the pattern and timing of the incident waves is perfect
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Even looks like the afternoon euro 12z run is trying to pop more riding up out west and definitely a lot more than it had yesterday’s run at 12z ... would help us out a bit later in the medium range
 
Webberweather53 said:
This isn't a torch pattern.

That is all.

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At least it is hard to see the SE ridge hurting us in that pattern LOL. No serious arctic air either, but like you say a few tweaks with what should be an active southern stream and a high pressure over New England and we could get lucky. I believe we have had winter weather in almost every teleconnection pattern in the past during the best climatological time period , often it comes down to sheer luck.
 
Stormdoc said:
At least it is hard to see the SE ridge hurting us in that pattern LOL. No serious arctic air either, but like you say a few tweaks with what should be an active southern stream and a high pressure over New England and we could get lucky. I believe we have had winter weather in almost every teleconnection pattern in the past during the best climatological time period , often it comes down to sheer luck.
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Yes, we've had a winter storm in basically every teleconnection configuration in the past, I can assure you of that even going back to 1948 and I'm sure this is even more evident when you look further back into the record. We've even had a major winter storm w/ no favorable teleconnections (+EPO/+WPO/+NAO/-PNA) granted it was also in late March thus the canonical mid-winter relationships start to break down because the wavelengths are short.
 
I'm crossing my fingers for one sneaky shortwave to dig into the Lakes & NE US at just the right time because we almost have a repeat of the March 1927 pattern showing up on the long range EPS. If we make a few minor tweaks to this pattern & get super lucky somehow in the process, all bets could be off

Feb 25-Mar 1 1927 N America 500mb NOAA 20CRv3.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
This isn't a torch pattern.

That is all.

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There's no question that if this would verify as shown here (this EPS run averages only 3 AN at ATL/RDU per my source for 1/27-31/20), it would be like night and day compared to the blowtorch +10 of the last 30 days. With only about a degree rise in normals during 1/27-31 vs that for the last 30 days averaged out, you'd be looking at 1/27-31/20 being about 6 colder than 12/20/19-1/18/20 at ATL/RDU, which I'd welcome with open arms.

The only problem folks need to keep in mind is the obvious that these are modeled temps out 8-12 days (or a movie as @pcbjr called it) and they may not reflect reality. Reality could end up about the same, warmer, or colder. Unfortunately verifications even vs the warmer EPS (vs GEFS) has been coming in pretty significantly warmer on average over the last 30 days per the numbers I've seen and also per my memory of how much warmer it got as the time got closer vs even a good number of EPS runs. The models have been a colossal disaster. So fingers crossed that this won't happen for 1/27-31!

Regardless, folks, the next 5 days will average solidly BN. No worries there. Enjoy these next few days. We deserve them! .
 
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