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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

I'm crossing my fingers for one sneaky shortwave to dig into the Lakes & NE US at just the right time because we almost have a repeat of the March 1927 pattern showing up on the long range EPS. If we make a few minor tweaks to this pattern & get super lucky somehow in the process, all bets could be off

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Was there any significant winter storms in 1927 in the Southeast during that time?

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Well, if anybody wants some hope, looks like eps has increased winter wx chances day 11-14, with the control showing a pretty nice storm as well, but then again the eps has been doing this pretty much all winter, so definitely needs to be taken with a grain of salt.
 

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Well, if anybody wants some hope, looks like eps has increased winter wx chances day 11-14, with the control showing a pretty nice storm as well, but then again the eps has been doing this pretty much all winter, so definitely needs to be taken with a grain of salt.
Interesting enough I’m fairly certain this may be the same system they were picking up on in the long range but then lost it once it started warming things up.. maybe this is the catching it back up part
 
These last 42 days of met winter for GSO are right on que for what I thought was gonna happen. Dont need vodka cold outbreak to score one. Just timing. To many opportunities in southern stream coming along not score atleast once. Also normal to -1 BN looks like a solid bet.
 
This winter is similar to last year. All we do is track escarpment onset ice events and even those turn out to be 40 degree light drizzle to heavy rain
Last year was better. It had a couple of almost events. This year we haven’t even had a legit dud to track. People getting excited over 300+ hour stuff lol. I haven’t even really paid much attention, because there hasn’t been anything to pay attention to.
 
Last year was better. It had a couple of almost events. This year we haven’t even had a legit dud to track. People getting excited over 300+ hour stuff lol. I haven’t even really paid much attention, because there hasn’t been anything to pay attention to.
I would say this winter has plenty of time to redeem itself with a backloaded winter still possible with all of February and beginning of March still to go... but I would say if we’re dealing with the same type of issues by mid to late February ... this winter would be one of the worst most likely
 
People killing winter on January 19th where modeling has been so terrible is pure bittercasting and frankly more banter worthy than anything else. Be sad in the banter or whamby thread. I am glad we don’t have a blowtorch forthcoming and we don’t need a deep freezer to get wintery. We need some marginal could and an active SJT and we may certainly have that.


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People killing winter on January 19th where modeling has been so terrible is pure bittercasting and frankly more banter worthy than anything else. Be sad in the banter or whamby thread. I am glad we don’t have a blowtorch forthcoming and we don’t need a deep freezer to get wintery. We need some marginal could and an active SJT and we may certainly have that.


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Actually, you may get flakes as soon as tomorrow night. For at least the 4th run in a row even though it is the only major model showing this, the 18Z Euro has light snow in the ATL area and much of N GA tomorrow night in advance of the upper low moving SE.

Meanwhile, the precip is about the same as recent runs just with it almost all just offshore. Still watching that for any unexpected last minute trends toward the coast.
 
Actually, you may get flakes as soon as tomorrow night. For at least the 4th run in a row even though it is the only major model showing this, the 18Z Euro has light snow in the ATL area and much of N GA tomorrow night in advance of the upper low moving SE.

Meanwhile, the precip is about the same as recent runs just with it almost all just offshore. Still watching that for any unexpected last minute trends toward the coast.
Does parts of Alabama have a chance of maybe seeing flakes too?
 
GEFS trying to pop the beginnings of a +PNA..starts around 264 on the 18z..good trends..should help aid to shove that big ridge out of Canada and at least give us a shot by the end of the first week in February..I mean I’m trying to find something positive here..hopeBABDBF8C-28D6-4057-95F7-7B97959D47BF.gif
 
The 18Z EPS is continuing a general trend of inching toward the coast and is actually kissing parts of the NC coast with light precip. In the Wilmington coastal area, it has it starting around Tue at sunset and continuing though much of Tue night. Most or all of this would be snow from all indications. Keep watching it, especially coastal folks, as this is still not a done deal/48 hours away and moderate precip is only ~30 miles offshore/heavy only 75 miles offshore!

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GEFS trying to pop the beginnings of a +PNA..starts around 264 on the 18z..good trends..should help aid to shove that big ridge out of Canada and at least give us a shot by the end of the first week in February..I mean I’m trying to find something positive here..hopeView attachment 31489
Yeah models have been a little enthusiastic about some pna ridging and some shuffling going on in the Pacific over the last 24 hours
 
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