• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

mrdaddyman said:
Yeah, EPS definitely seems to be honking the horn on this coastal possibility. I think 5 days is plenty of time for this to inch back to our area but I'm still getting flashbacks to the last time we were rooting for a coastal to come back NW and it didn't.

View attachment 31304



View attachment 31305
Click to expand...

Yeap this has got coastal scrapper written all over it. The last one we had my folks in Cape Carteret got a few inches.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Webberweather53 said:
There’s more than enough time and wiggle room for the US 1 and 95 corridors to score the middle of next week. Worth reminding everyone, even though every model shows this as a coast only threat, this is still 5 days out & this is the kind of setup that can turn favorably or unfavorably in a heartbeat and quite wildly at that.
I’d definitely keep an eye on this in areas like RDU, Fayetteville, Goldsboro-Wilson, etc
Click to expand...

I’d even keep an eye on this in the Columbia to Augusta to Macon corridor based on how much SW the EPS trended since 12Z yesterday. I mean even further west can’t be ruled out. On the same token, there could conceivably even be too much of a good thing and some of or even most of the coastal areas POSSIBLY end up warmer than 0C at 850 mb (I.e., mainly rain instead of snow). Still lots of possibilities with this one!
 
Jon said:
Same here, note I just said Jan. Still a believer that we get a snowy pattern at some point. I don’t cancel winter until it’s mid March and nothing looks good in the 10-15 day. Lol


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Well, I had snow in Elizabeth City on March 12, 2018. That’s the last time we had any measurable snow here (with the exception of the trace amount the November 12, 2019).
 
That's a robust wave. It's just too positive tilted and too progressive. Closing off sooner would help, as was said earlier. Would be so helpful if the ridge axis wasn't running from Dallas through Bismark.
 
I don't know if you all remember, but do you all remember how lost the GFS was during the Jan 3rd 2018 event? I mean we basically quit even paying attention to it. The Euro basically led the way. And the GFS didn't really correct it self until like 24 to 36 hours out.
 
A rare coastal Wintry treat still looks like a real possibility as we get closer. I've been keeping my eye on this for a while now, and still feel comfortable with moisture likely making it. The main question I still have is the cold air.
 
Shawn said:
A rare coastal Wintry treat still looks like a real possibility as we get closer. I've been keeping my eye on this for a while now, and still feel comfortable with moisture likely making it. The main question I still have is the cold air.
Click to expand...
What do you mean? For the most part the south East has already been inundated with lots of cold air more than we usually would have with any storm
 
If I remember correctly the coastal last year was brought back by the models from much further offshore. It corrected west and towards the end it corrected back east for an epic fish storm. Let’s see if this one corrects back eastward closer to verification as well. I would think a scenario such as this is how the OBX gets their best snowstorms though
 
From Tim Buckley (speaking of GSO).

“Looking at the data, the last time we had back to back Januarys without measurable snow was 1992/1993 - almost 30 years ago.”

not surprising that we are on par now with the early 90s. If it snows here before the end of January I will be shocked.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top