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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
FWIW this Saturday on the NAM. Also has a better CAD signature this run and more precip ahead of the line.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Not surprising given it was a year with an advancing Nino. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a really big central pac mjo event in Feb or Mar that sends us on our way to a nino for 2020-21. Could be staring down the barrel of our 3rd winter in a row with a nino, ironically 2 of those featured a strong SE ridge. (Facepalm).
Maybe the 3rd time will finally be the charm?
Seems about right, models always tend to rush a true pattern change... little glancing cold blow here and there, then complete flip to cold for Fab Feb.
Oh great...so we can go ahead and cancel Dec 2020. This doesn't look like it's going away.
Jon
Member
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I don’t understand what it takes anymore
At the end of the day let’s also remember the basics. Looks how much RUN to RUN variability there is in the ENS runs much less the OP runs. Euro op is telling IMhO. Keep watching that shortwave back further SW. let’s see if that keeps happening
Parker
Member
What a kick in the ?
The dang mountains in Gatlinburg can’t even get a nice chance.
The dang mountains in Gatlinburg can’t even get a nice chance.
Jon
Member
Multivariate PNA index. Carl Schreck set to figure out which MJO events impact USA temps and which ones do not. (Ex. We are in phase 8 and nothing happened, why?)
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John1122
Member
The Multivariate PNA. Basically if the PNA is Neutral or negative the MJO phase doesn't matter a lot.
Oh geez. I quickly glanced at it and it's a variant of the PNA so of course, the MVP is negative as we are coming out of a strong -PNA period.
Jon
Member
It’s not the PNA that’s the point, it’s multivariate. That’s why the MVP has a 0.57 correlation with the CPC’s PNA index, as in, it’s not close to being the same as the PNA index.
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Good post as was yours from yesterday.
Jon
Member
Yeah, the point is more this:
if the MVP stays + or - when we are in Phase 7 it will likely not lead to Eastern cold.
Or if the MVP stays - or goes neutral, it will likely not lead to eastern cold.
Obviously the PNA is binary. + leads to cold East, - leads to warm East. That’s not the case with the MVP and in this research it correlates the 3 measures (-,0,+) with the MJO phase and outcomes on temp in the US
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I haven't read the white paper, but a +PNA is a ridge in the west and a -PNA is a trough there. What does the same height field look like with a -MVP vs a +MVP. Any pictures?