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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Six Mile Wx said:
We want to see that Ridge move closer to Greenland. Then possibly game on if we can get the pacific side to cooperate.View attachment 30953And that’s what it does when you run it out a little farther.View attachment 30954
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This is also what I was alluding to earlier those higher heights are progressing towards Greenland which then can be hugely beneficial to us let’s slow the roll a bit
 
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That is not a snow storm per say but man, it’s got potential. Will be huge swings on the GFS with the energy, especially with possible phasing, so no need to believe any solution for a few days.
 
Also to bird mans point earlier there’s no way we recover or bounce back that much at least for CAD regions after a massive cold blast like that .. would give those regions at least an ice type storm to deal with per GEFS support that solution as well .. ITS NOT OVER cause one 00z run of the euro showed a few degrees of above normal temps for a couple days
 
Need to keep this up #babysteps
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Nick_boynton_ said:
Also to bird mans point earlier there’s no way we recover or bounce back that much at least for CAD regions after a massive cold blast like that .. would give those regions at least an ice type storm to deal with per GEFS support that solution as well .. ITS NOT OVER cause one 00z run of the euro showed a few degrees of above normal temps for a couple days
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Totally and you can’t let these few runs discount the teleconnections and the MJO. Don’t become blind to reason but rely upon it.


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whatalife said:
Take from this what you will and here are the 00z 500mb ensemble the suits days 10-15.
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It's not optimal, some blocking would be nice or more of the -EPO like the GEPS is showing but as mentioned I've seen worse and I guess beggars can't be choosers
 
It's probably best not to get too concerned or too excited about each model run for anything past 5 days. There has been so much flip flopping in the just the last 24 hours, from great model runs and potential in the long range for winter storms to warmer and rain. Those great runs might change to what we have now, but what we have now might change, too, in the next 24 to 48 hours. It is maddening, but I think the models just can't get a grasp of the pattern past a week anymore because the way our climate is now. The computer logarithms just suck for anything past 5 to 7 days, and that is why there is so much variation. I might just go back to checking out the RAH forecast discussions and wait until they mention snow to come back on the board. It was nice when I was gone for a while and not checking the board all day. The only reason I came back this week is because of the severe weather threat, and then I saw the s word mentioned in this thread, and it dragged me back in
 
Take a look at this graphic below makes you wonder why we can get cold but have nothing to show for it he'll it may not even verify
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BIG FROSTY said:
Oh boy!




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That account flips like the modeling. Every post is what the latest modeled temp departure is. Not sure how anyone can follow that with confidence.

He can’t take away this cold that is ending up verifying very, very nicely for early next week.




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This system coming up mid next week has some serious Jan 3rd 2018 vibes. Even the trajectory of the snow accumulation is exactly what the storm in Jan 2018 was. Which is probably not good for Central SC but this time, if it snows in Myrtle beach or the coast, I am taking off work and heading there to see it.
 
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