Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

[KyloG]

Welp, not sure I have ever started a thread as I don’t have the best luck. But, we are staring down the worst possible pattern to start January and figured it can’t get any worse.

I am hoping this is Dec ph 6 and we transition to a January ph6 pattern as that is slightly better.

 

[Webberweather53]

Welp, not sure I have ever started a thread as I don’t have the best luck. But, we are staring down the worst possible pattern to start January and figured it can’t get any worse.

I am hoping this is Dec ph 6 and we transition to a January ph6 pattern as that is slightly better.

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You can clearly see the pattern is doing its best rendition of the phase 6 +ENSO composite, with the major, undeniable wrinkle being the TPV over Alaska that’s decided to screw everything up. In its absence, we’d probably see a -EPO attempting to go up in early Jan

 

[KyloG]

You can clearly see the pattern is doing its best rendition of the phase 6 +ENSO composite, with the major, undeniable wrinkle being the TPV over Alaska that’s decided to screw everything up. In its absence, we’d probably see a -EPO attempting to go up in early Jan

Thinking that is just bad luck...way the ball bounces sometimes?

 

[KyloG]

Latest CFS monthly. Would be welcome site. Yeah, cold is centered central/west but would give chances.

 

[Rain Cold]

Well, as you said, it's about as bad as it gets in terms of the progression over the last several days. Hopefully, we're at or close to peak badness. Hard to get a worse alignment of indexes, although it's possible, I guess.

 

[Webberweather53]

Thinking that is just bad luck...way the ball bounces sometimes?

Yes in many ways the variation of this TPV is random because it’s difficult to observe and constrain in NWP models

 

[Webberweather53]

Luckily we have an active southern stream this winter to carve thru the SE US ridge or things would be a lot worse in the longer range

 

[Webberweather53]

The one thing we’ve had going for Jan and Feb since 2012-13 (-EPO) is clearly abandoning us at least for the first week or so of January. The weenie side of me is truly frustrated

 

[Stormdoc]

Well at least the GFS is looking better. Maybe a start.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

View attachment 28848
Well at least the GFS is looking better. Maybe a start.

ENC gets mauled by the 12z GFS..big fantasy coastal..pattern is ripening ?

 

[BHS1975]

ENC gets mauled by the 12z GFS..big fantasy coastal..pattern is ripening

NW trend baby


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[KyloG]

It’s a start

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

It’s a start

View attachment 28859

I think that PV is going to rotate through and to the north of Greenland before giving us sloppy seconds the third week in January..and even then the sun angle is similar to that of Memorial Day weekend

 

[Tarheel1]

Winters back on!

 

[Metwannabe]

I think that PV is going to rotate through and to the north of Greenland before giving us sloppy seconds the third week in January..and even then the sun angle is similar to that of Memorial Day weekend

I can't tell is this a legit post or same 'ol shtick post?

 

[Rain Cold]

GFS looks a lot better. Probably a blip, but you can't win 'em all if you don't win the first one.

 

[Metwannabe]

GFS looks a lot better. Probably a blip, but you can't win 'em all if you don't win the first one.

View attachment 28861

Yeah probably a blip...

 

[Metwannabe]

If the Euro went beyond d10 it would be prepare for glory time....

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

If the Euro went beyond d10 it would be prepare for glory time....

The king was trying..

 

[deltadog03]

If the Euro went beyond d10 it would be prepare for glory time....

I was going to post that would be a setup that might really do something as well. Northern branch pushing the front through and a high building back in, with all that energy over the SW kicking east.