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Pattern January 2017 Discussion

Remember, we are now entering our better months for Wintry weather.  Anything we could have gotten in December would have been a good bonus.  Happy to see a bit of support for blocking going into January.  Just wish we could get a good look within 3 days.  This 192 Hour + thing isn't working too well.
 
one day the para will be right and we will score one of these winter storms it keeps throwing out
# 12z para

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18z has us pushing 70 around the new year with a strengthening WAR
9c8b56fc28e9233c904aaf0b7d774e8c.jpg


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if your looking for a wintry threat the first week of January seems to be a window as all guidance has shown a wintry threat that week in some for or fashion

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The 18z 7-9th threat looks legit! Been showing up for awhile! Just a few tweaks, and we are Rollin
 
Storm5 link said:
18z has us pushing 70 around the new year with a strengthening WAR
9c8b56fc28e9233c904aaf0b7d774e8c.jpg


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Fine with me. A lot of times we have had good snow storms just a few days after a big warm up. It was like that in January 2000. I actually think the big swings can be good for bigger storms.
 
Storm5 link said:
18z has us pushing 70 around the new year with a strengthening WAR
9c8b56fc28e9233c904aaf0b7d774e8c.jpg


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What is it good for....absolutely nothing

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SD link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3281#msg3281 date=1482619076]
18z has us pushing 70 around the new year with a strengthening WAR
9c8b56fc28e9233c904aaf0b7d774e8c.jpg


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Click to expand...
What is it good for....absolutely nothing

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[/quote]
That bathtub is gonna slosh so hard!
 
SD link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3281#msg3281 date=1482619076]
18z has us pushing 70 around the new year with a strengthening WAR
9c8b56fc28e9233c904aaf0b7d774e8c.jpg


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Click to expand...
What is it good for....absolutely nothing

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[/quote]
have you been in the christmas refreshments ?

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=60.msg3286#msg3286 date=1482624088]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3281#msg3281 date=1482619076]
18z has us pushing 70 around the new year with a strengthening WAR
9c8b56fc28e9233c904aaf0b7d774e8c.jpg


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Click to expand...
What is it good for....absolutely nothing

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[/quote]
have you been in the christmas refreshments ?

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[/quote]
Trash it! #GFSismeaningless


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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=60.msg3286#msg3286 date=1482624088]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3281#msg3281 date=1482619076]
18z has us pushing 70 around the new year with a strengthening WAR
9c8b56fc28e9233c904aaf0b7d774e8c.jpg


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Click to expand...
What is it good for....absolutely nothing

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[/quote]
have you been in the christmas refreshments ?

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[/quote]
That would be a negative

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Brick Tamland link said:
You can't depend on the models past five days. All the indicies and patterns that people looked at from the past to give us a good chance at winter storms don't seem to apply here anymore. As long as temps stay normal and we still get some shots of below normal then we still have a chance at getting a winter storm. That's about all you can say for winter here. As long as we don't go way above normal and things stay active, we should have just as good of a chance as any other time to get a storm here. I think we score at least one good one in January.
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I will say that I didn't think we'd torch on Xmas when the models hinted at it last week. They backed off a bit and we thought CAD would be more robust. Now we are back to full on torch. I'm not sure what to believe but the models may have had this right. So maybe in turn the GFS goes toward the colder solution again. Who knows.


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Full on torch where? My forecast has temps mostly between 45 and 55 here the next 10 days.
 
Brick Tamland link said:
Full on torch where? My forecast has temps mostly between 45 and 55 here the next 10 days.
Click to expand...
I hit 74 yesterday, a chilly 62 today and see another upper 70s next week! I'm gonna say a few days at 25-30 degrees above normal in late December, is a torch! We most likely won't have one high temp that much below normal this winter! Just life in the South! :(
 
Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=60.msg3299#msg3299 date=1482633759]
Full on torch where? My forecast has temps mostly between 45 and 55 here the next 10 days.
Click to expand...
I hit 74 yesterday, a chilly 62 today and see another upper 70s next week! I'm gonna say a few days at 25-30 degrees above normal in late December, is a torch! We most likely won't have one high temp that much below normal this winter! Just life in the South! :(
[/quote]

Nothing like that here. You mat not be in NC. No torch here.
 
Brick Tamland link said:
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=60.msg3301#msg3301 date=1482634452]
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=60.msg3299#msg3299 date=1482633759]
Full on torch where? My forecast has temps mostly between 45 and 55 here the next 10 days.
Click to expand...
I hit 74 yesterday, a chilly 62 today and see another upper 70s next week! I'm gonna say a few days at 25-30 degrees above normal in late December, is a torch! We most likely won't have one high temp that much below normal this winter! Just life in the South! :(
[/quote]

Nothing like that here. You mat not be in NC. No torch here.
[/quote]
You may flirt with 70° on Tuesday but probably nothing prolonged.


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I'm really getting hyped up around the first week of January, GFS has been honking at possible storm, and very cold air. Oz GFS tonight was amazing with storm signal and very cold temps. Even tho it's 288 and beyond it been advertising for a while now. :wreath:
 
Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=60.msg3299#msg3299 date=1482633759]
Full on torch where? My forecast has temps mostly between 45 and 55 here the next 10 days.
Click to expand...
I hit 74 yesterday, a chilly 62 today and see another upper 70s next week! I'm gonna say a few days at 25-30 degrees above normal in late December, is a torch! We most likely won't have one high temp that much below normal this winter! Just life in the South! :(
[/quote]

I've got a forecast high of 70 the next two days and my average high is 46 so I'm definitely torching the next few days.
 
Storm5 link said:
18z para has single digit lows  January 2nd

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WOW, agreement with those two ? Lol.
 
Storm5 link said:
merry Christmas from the 00z gfs single digits , yes please

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Yep, if that were to somehow verify (I'm sure none of us will hold our breath since the chances are low), it would bring stupid cold to N MS, N AL, and most of TN. (Example: 9F for BHM). ATL and RDU get a strong cold shot but not stupid cold (18F).

This reminds me about strength of a cold airmass and chances for a major SN/IP following it based on something I learned very recently. At ATL, for example, chances go up by about a factor of 3 for every 10 degrees colder the coldest of the airmass is. So, though still low, a single digit airmass has about a ten times higher chance for a major SN/IP to follow it vs a 20's airmass there.
 
GaWx link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3314#msg3314 date=1482643319]
merry Christmas from the 00z gfs single digits , yes please

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Click to expand...

Yep, if that were to somehow verify (I'm sure none of us will hold our breath since the chances are low), it would bring stupid cold to N MS, N AL, and most of TN. (Example: 9F for BHM). ATL and RDU get a strong cold shot but not stupid cold (18F).

This reminds me about strength of a cold airmass and chances for a major SN/IP following it based on something I learned very recently. At ATL, for example, chances go up by about a factor of 3 for every 10 degrees colder the coldest of the airmass is. So, though still low, a single digit airmass has about a ten times higher chance for a major SN/IP to follow it vs a 20's airmass there.
[/quote]
Yep, 6z taketh away! Coldest temps are 20s, maybe an upper teen! A warmer run overall!
 
Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=60.msg3321#msg3321 date=1482651444]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3314#msg3314 date=1482643319]
merry Christmas from the 00z gfs single digits , yes please

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Click to expand...

Yep, if that were to somehow verify (I'm sure none of us will hold our breath since the chances are low), it would bring stupid cold to N MS, N AL, and most of TN. (Example: 9F for BHM). ATL and RDU get a strong cold shot but not stupid cold (18F). Yeah, not as cold but cold.

This reminds me about strength of a cold airmass and chances for a major SN/IP following it based on something I learned very recently. At ATL, for example, chances go up by about a factor of 3 for every 10 degrees colder the coldest of the airmass is. So, though still low, a single digit airmass has about a ten times higher chance for a major SN/IP to follow it vs a 20's airmass there.
[/quote]
Yep, 6z taketh away! Coldest temps are 20s, maybe an upper teen! A warmer run overall!
[/quote] yeah, not as cold but still cold. Models will shuffle around because it's the LR. I still feel pretty good for second week of January
 
Webberweather53 link said:
JB finally caves...
It will likely take the cold air the longest to reach the SE US...

Screen-Shot-2016-12-25-at-8.34.44-AM.png
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maybe by week four he will release a forecast that verifies ......

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=60.msg3326#msg3326 date=1482673014]
JB finally caves...
It will likely take the cold air the longest to reach the SE US...

Screen-Shot-2016-12-25-at-8.34.44-AM.png
Click to expand...
maybe by week four he will release a forecast that verifies ......

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[/quote]
Lol! He saw the 0z and jumped all over the cold!! Now it's like, sike!!
 
A couple of days near 70 and then average to below average temps the rest of the week is not a torch.
 
And as long as it's below freezing and there is a chance of winter storms, then why does it matter if it's not in the teens or single digits?
 
Brick Tamland link said:
A couple of days near 70 and then average to below average temps the rest of the week is not a torch.
Click to expand...
I don't know what else you call it then.. 70 or above Christmas time no matter the length of it... its still a torch... models aren't handling the patter at all in long range... who  knows.. may torch ; some longer... just saying
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=60.msg3326#msg3326 date=1482673014]
JB finally caves...
It will likely take the cold air the longest to reach the SE US...

Screen-Shot-2016-12-25-at-8.34.44-AM.png
Click to expand...
maybe by week four he will release a forecast that verifies ......

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[/quote]
HAHA! Be nice...It's Christmas...


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tennessee storm link said:
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=60.msg3332#msg3332 date=1482675163]
A couple of days near 70 and then average to below average temps the rest of the week is not a torch.
Click to expand...
I don't know what else you call it then.. 70 or above Christmas time no matter the length of it... its still a torch... models aren't handling the patter at all in long range... who  knows.. may torch ; some longer... just saying
[/quote]

One or two days doesn't make it a torch. That's a typical winter here. And we can have a couple of days at 70 and next week have a snow storm. That also happens quite often here.
 
Re: January 2017 Discussion

six years ago today I experienced my first white Christmas in alabama  .....it was amazing .

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whatalife link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3330#msg3330 date=1482674388]
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=60.msg3326#msg3326 date=1482673014]
JB finally caves...
It will likely take the cold air the longest to reach the SE US...

Screen-Shot-2016-12-25-at-8.34.44-AM.png
Click to expand...
maybe by week four he will release a forecast that verifies ......

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[/quote]
HAHA! Be nice...It's Christmas...


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[/quote]
All he wants for Christmas is a forecast that's right, or a new bathtub, his is broken!
 
whatalife link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3343#msg3343 date=1482684503]
merry Christmas from the 12z gfs

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Click to expand...
Holy SMH!


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[/quote]
Classic track there! 2 waves! Felize Navidad Amigos!!
That 5-7th threat has been around for quite a few runs now!!!
 
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