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Pattern January 2017 Discussion

For those wanting a consolidated system, then the GEFS are for you

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Re: January 2017 Discussion

I'm going to go to bed dreaming of E6

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tellicowx, was you looking at the 850mb temps? Sometimes the model counts snow that is falling at 850mb but it's not actually on the ground lol.

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=tellicowx link=topic=60.msg4728#msg4728 date=1483076818]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg4726#msg4726 date=1483076764]
[quote author=tellicowx link=topic=60.msg4724#msg4724 date=1483076633]
Storm, I'm in East Tn. I was following the ptype maps with the low coming up it shows rain, but when you switch to the snowfall map it shows a large swath of snow...was kinda confusing lol

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for whatever reason these ensemble snow maps count ZR and ip as snow . so the big snow totals are not actually all snow .

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[/quote]
ok, that makes sense. I thought they had fixed that.

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[/quote]
I don't know what ryan fixed. apparently the euro maps have been fixed but they still come out wrong. Maybe Shawn knows

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[/quote]

I think euro might have had actual ZR removed from total snowfall maps.  As usual, sleet likely still counts as snow though.  I am not quite sure all the other details with ensembles etc.
 
NorthGAWinterWx link said:
tellicowx, was you looking at the 850mb temps? Sometimes the model counts snow that is falling at 850mb but it's not actually on the ground lol.

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No I was following the ensemble members

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Shawn link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg4730#msg4730 date=1483076946]
[quote author=tellicowx link=topic=60.msg4728#msg4728 date=1483076818]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg4726#msg4726 date=1483076764]
[quote author=tellicowx link=topic=60.msg4724#msg4724 date=1483076633]
Storm, I'm in East Tn. I was following the ptype maps with the low coming up it shows rain, but when you switch to the snowfall map it shows a large swath of snow...was kinda confusing lol

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for whatever reason these ensemble snow maps count ZR and ip as snow . so the big snow totals are not actually all snow .

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
ok, that makes sense. I thought they had fixed that.

Sent from my SM-S820L using Tapatalk
[/quote]
I don't know what ryan fixed. apparently the euro maps have been fixed but they still come out wrong. Maybe Shawn knows

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk


[/quote]

I think euro might have had actual ZR removed from total snowfall maps.  As usual, sleet likely still counts as snow though.  I am not quite sure all the other details with ensembles etc.
[/quote]
Thanks Shawn

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I would like to point out I just saw a GFS Para chart and it's very close if not down-right tied with Euro.  Outperforming the OP GFS at 500mb from Oct. through late Nov.
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=Brent link=topic=60.msg4743#msg4743 date=1483080016]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg4742#msg4742 date=1483079746]
lol this euro run

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It's dry here...what gives lol
[/quote]
way too much northern stream. really suppressed everything

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[/quote]

Isn't suppression good at this stage?
 
SimeonNC link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg4746#msg4746 date=1483080556]
[quote author=Brent link=topic=60.msg4743#msg4743 date=1483080016]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg4742#msg4742 date=1483079746]
lol this euro run

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It's dry here...what gives lol
[/quote]
way too much northern stream. really suppressed everything

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[/quote]

Isn't suppression good at this stage?
[/quote]
Yeah it's not bad. the euro had a colder push no doubt. it was close to being a huge overrunning event . just need to tweak a few things here and there. wasn't horrible, and was vastly improved vs 12z

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euro can't make up its mind on what to do with the northern stream energy. Even so , that run was close to a big oveerunning event

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