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Pattern January 2017 Discussion

Storm5 link said:
8dcec535c7c4f61306bbc02d220cda77.jpg


I would take this all day long. :)

Btw. Just registered glad I found this site. I was missing TW.

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The EPS was much slower with the shortwave energy emerging out of the western US @ 0z last night, hence the cold air and associated arctic front has more time to penetrate further SE once the disturbance emerges out of the south-central Rockies, therefore its track also shifted SEward.... The slower this disturbance is, the further SE the eventual wave of low pressure will track & vis versa.
 
The Weather Channel just talked about the pattern change and how winter weather is possible for the South/Southeast with Arkansas, TN Valley and Western NC highlighted in a pink area.
 
Re: January 2017 Discussion

06Z GFS is better organized than the 0z. It's looking like it's becoming a consolidated system. (Possibly a Gulf low, or a Gulf coastal low pushing off to the Atlantic). That high is in the right place at 198 and it's still a cold run just like the 0z was. Less ZR I see as well on the 06z than the 0z, that's also another indication that this system could turn out to be an all snow event.

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Webberweather53 link said:
The EPS was much slower with the shortwave energy emerging out of the western US @ 0z last night, hence the cold air and associated arctic front has more time to penetrate further SE once the disturbance emerges out of the south-central Rockies, therefore its track also shifted SEward.... The slower this disturbance is, the further SE the eventual wave of low pressure will track & vis versa.
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sweet, it's what you discussed yesterday. Yeah there was a clear SE trend on the eps

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0z Euro, (the 06z GFS has this as well) a low poping up along the stationary front over in the Atlantic then another one should come up along that stationary front (some where in the red circle) that low will be the more consolidated low that would produce more snow than the overrunning. Yes, there looks like there will be overrunning at first but when that low kickes out (some where in the red circle approximately) there won't be anymore overrunning cause the stationary front won't be there anymore.
e6b82cb89ced4a318b1afcdc45df164c.jpg


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NorthGAWinterWx link said:
0z Euro, (the 06z GFS has this as well) a low popping up along the stationary front over in the Atlantic then another one should come up along that stationary front (some where in the red circle) that low will be the more consolidated low that would produce more snow than the overrunning. Yes, there looks like there will be overrunning at first but when that low kicks out (some where in the red circle approximately) there won't be anymore overrunning cause the stationary front won't be there anymore.
e6b82cb89ced4a318b1afcdc45df164c.jpg


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Nice, if trends keep this the combination should make for some awesome totals assuming the cold stays.
 
Re: January 2017 Discussion

Storm5 link said:
00z para
9be6004936db0755bcb153e18dff9f6f.jpg


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That looks more like it, there should be more snow in central NC on that para.

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SimeonNC link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=60.msg4764#msg4764 date=1483102379]
0z Euro, (the 06z GFS has this as well) a low popping up along the stationary front over in the Atlantic then another one should come up along that stationary front (some where in the red circle) that low will be the more consolidated low that would produce more snow than the overrunning. Yes, there looks like there will be overrunning at first but when that low kicks out (some where in the red circle approximately) there won't be anymore overrunning cause the stationary front won't be there anymore.
e6b82cb89ced4a318b1afcdc45df164c.jpg


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Nice, if trends keep this the combination should make for some awesome totals assuming the cold stays.
[/quote]
Yes, some places will turn out to have high totals if everything goes the way I'm seeing it.

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That would be the ideal scenario. Some overrunning at first to lock in the cold, then a more consolidated system with more precip coming afterwards.
 
Re: January 2017 Discussion

I think there would be more overrunning west of the apps rather than along the apps or east of the apps. That's why we see higher totals west of the apps on the models. Because west of the apps will be in that colder sector while east of the apps, the SER would still be hanging on.

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NorthGAWinterWx link said:
I think there would be more overrunning west of the apps rather than along the apps or east of the apps. That's why we see higher totals west of the apps on the models.

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Would a more consolidated system give more opportunity for I-20 and I-85 folks to get some accumulation?


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The whole thing needs to slow up some and move a little further south, then pretty much everyone on the board would get the higher totals of snow. As it stands right now I think people like me across the upstate would see more IP/ ZR due to it being warmer.
 
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