ForsythSnow
Moderator
Here is the WPC's 7th day for snow/sleet. If the models trend colder, that area will likely shift southeast, which would make us all happy.
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Pattern January 2017 Discussion
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
No. The more consolidated and stronger this system is the more likely it is to be northwest. If you want snow to see the snow line farther south you want the system to trend a little slower and a little weaker.NorthGAWinterWx link said:
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Stormlover
Member
From HSV:
The constantly reinforced
cold airmass will create a wintry precipitation scenario as several
weak undulations within the prevailing southwesterly flow provide
forcing combined with mid-level saturation overrunning this airmass.
Though it is difficult to ascertain the timing of this wintry
precipitation, have incorporated at least a mix of freezing rain,
ice pellets, and snow for the Wednesday night through Friday time
frame. The airmass appears to be reinforced at least once, but the
other complication is that the surface freezing line is either close
to or atop the TN Valley. With this area in the transition zone, the
forecast for wintry precip will become even that more difficult. The
one thing that does continue to be a common denominator is the
following: expect a significant and prolonged (few days) much below
normal temperature event coupled with the possibility for wintry
precip.
The constantly reinforced
cold airmass will create a wintry precipitation scenario as several
weak undulations within the prevailing southwesterly flow provide
forcing combined with mid-level saturation overrunning this airmass.
Though it is difficult to ascertain the timing of this wintry
precipitation, have incorporated at least a mix of freezing rain,
ice pellets, and snow for the Wednesday night through Friday time
frame. The airmass appears to be reinforced at least once, but the
other complication is that the surface freezing line is either close
to or atop the TN Valley. With this area in the transition zone, the
forecast for wintry precip will become even that more difficult. The
one thing that does continue to be a common denominator is the
following: expect a significant and prolonged (few days) much below
normal temperature event coupled with the possibility for wintry
precip.
Would a more consolidated system give more opportunity for I-20 and I-85 folks to get some accumulation?ATLWxFan link said:
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[/quote]
Yes, along and north of I-20, I-85 would get more snow from the consolidated system. NW GA and NE GA would get overrunning then some winter wx from the consolidated system if there will be one.
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Stormlover
Member
6Z GFS
Storm5
Member
Would a more consolidated system give more opportunity for I-20 and I-85 folks to get some accumulation?NorthGAWinterWx link said:
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[/quote]
Yes, along and north of I-20, I-85 would get more snow from the consolidated system. NW GA and NE GA would get overrunning then some winter wx from the consolidated system if there will be one.
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[/quote]
there is no guarantee that i20 would see snow from a consolidated low in fact if the low wrapped up too much it would most likely yank inland some. I live along i20 , I for sure as hell don't want a true low. give me overrunning all day everyday.
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Would a more consolidated system give more opportunity for I-20 and I-85 folks to get some accumulation?Storm5 link said:
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[/quote]
Yes, along and north of I-20, I-85 would get more snow from the consolidated system. NW GA and NE GA would get overrunning then some winter wx from the consolidated system if there will be one.
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[/quote]
there is no guarantee that i20 would see snow from a consolidated low in fact if the low wrapped up too much it would most likely yank inland some. I live along i20 , I for sure as hell don't want a true low. give me overrunning all day everyday.
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[/quote]
And twice on Sunday!!?
Anyway, s it looks now from overnight Euro and para GFS, I would be excited in N MS, N AL, N GA, looks like y'all could do better than the Carolinas! Long way to go
Storm5
Member
Re: January 2017 Discussion
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[/quote]
Yes, along and north of I-20, I-85 would get more snow from the consolidated system. NW GA and NE GA would get overrunning then some winter wx from the consolidated system if there will be one.
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[/quote]
there is no guarantee that i20 would see snow from a consolidated low in fact if the low wrapped up too much it would most likely yank inland some. I live along i20 , I for sure as hell don't want a true low. give me overrunning all day everyday.
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
And twice on Sunday!!?
Anyway, s it looks now from overnight Euro and para GFS, I would be excited in N MS, N AL, N GA, looks like y'all could do better than the Carolinas! Long way to go
[/quote]
I agree , long way to go with this. way too many people giving up ( especially georgia folks). way too much over analysing ( much of which does not even make meteorological sense ) ......
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Would a more consolidated system give more opportunity for I-20 and I-85 folks to get some accumulation?Tarheel1 link said:
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[/quote]
Yes, along and north of I-20, I-85 would get more snow from the consolidated system. NW GA and NE GA would get overrunning then some winter wx from the consolidated system if there will be one.
Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
[/quote]
there is no guarantee that i20 would see snow from a consolidated low in fact if the low wrapped up too much it would most likely yank inland some. I live along i20 , I for sure as hell don't want a true low. give me overrunning all day everyday.
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
And twice on Sunday!!?
Anyway, s it looks now from overnight Euro and para GFS, I would be excited in N MS, N AL, N GA, looks like y'all could do better than the Carolinas! Long way to go
[/quote]
I agree , long way to go with this. way too many people giving up ( especially georgia folks). way too much over analysing ( much of which does not even make meteorological sense ) ......
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Anyone East, South, and about 100 mi north of a true low would end up screwed. Really only people who would benefit is on the Nothwest quadrant, while the west side would have to wait until the low passes to transition to snow or a mix
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Would a more consolidated system give more opportunity for I-20 and I-85 folks to get some accumulation?Storm5 link said:
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[/quote]
Yes, along and north of I-20, I-85 would get more snow from the consolidated system. NW GA and NE GA would get overrunning then some winter wx from the consolidated system if there will be one.
Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
[/quote]
there is no guarantee that i20 would see snow from a consolidated low in fact if the low wrapped up too much it would most likely yank inland some. I live along i20 , I for sure as hell don't want a true low. give me overrunning all day everyday.
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
I can understand that cause I live north of I-20 as well. The consolidated system may not even pull too far inland. We don't know that yet cause the models aren't picking up that consolidated low yet...well they are it's just not defined.
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Stormlover
Member
Spann put this out
Storm5
Member
welcome!Spurs up link said:
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Would a more consolidated system give more opportunity for I-20 and I-85 folks to get some accumulation?NorthGAWinterWx link said:
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[/quote]
Yes, along and north of I-20, I-85 would get more snow from the consolidated system. NW GA and NE GA would get overrunning then some winter wx from the consolidated system if there will be one.
Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
[/quote]
there is no guarantee that i20 would see snow from a consolidated low in fact if the low wrapped up too much it would most likely yank inland some. I live along i20 , I for sure as hell don't want a true low. give me overrunning all day everyday.
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
I can understand that cause I live north of I-20 as well. The consolidated system may not even pull too far inland. We don't know that yet cause the models aren't picking up that consolidated low yet...well they are it's just not defined.
Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
[/quote]
The models aren't hinting at a strong low because the height gradient in the east tightens which shears the western shortwave thus you get this low amplitude look. There are 2 ways in this look to get a stronger low First is a phased scenario where it's 100% depending on timing of the phase as to who gets rain or snow. The second option is what we saw with the 12z runs yesterday where the heights are more relaxed and there is the ability to have a stronger low pressure and room for amplification. The problem with this is it gives the SER the ability to push back and biases everything north.
You don't need a strong low here to generate a good amount of precipitation. The moist southwest flow aloft over top the air mass already in play will do well at generating precip. The addition of any energy from the west will act to enhance moisture plumes at times. The good thing about this look is horizontal temperature advection is kept at a minimum so we aren't likely to have a blazing warm nose aloft
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Oh be still my beating heart, the slightest possibility of a winter event without a blazing warm nose..... can it be? Do those still exist? Lol Great explanation by the way
whatalife
Moderator
Would a more consolidated system give more opportunity for I-20 and I-85 folks to get some accumulation?Storm5 link said:
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[/quote]
Yes, along and north of I-20, I-85 would get more snow from the consolidated system. NW GA and NE GA would get overrunning then some winter wx from the consolidated system if there will be one.
Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
[/quote]
there is no guarantee that i20 would see snow from a consolidated low in fact if the low wrapped up too much it would most likely yank inland some. I live along i20 , I for sure as hell don't want a true low. give me overrunning all day everyday.
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
While I like all snow a Consolidated low would more then likely cut on us...
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
6Z Para down in snow totals, and the SER looks weaker as well. Also just saw the 18Z Para. Pure clown map.
As far as gulf lows are concerned, I found only three sub 1000 mb lows since the late 1800's that gave Atlanta 3.5+" of SN/IP. One was the ~977 mb 3/1993 blizzard, which was a very rare storm that gave major snow after a changeover from rain that occurred before it passed. The other two lows were in the high 990's.
For the remaining 30 something major SN/IP, the lowest pressure while in the gulf was 1000+. The average is not too far from 1010 mb and a few were as high as near 1020 mb. So, the best chance is from a weak low/overrunning. Some of the biggest SN/IP in Atlanta were from very weak lows (1015+).
The track is almost always through either SE GA or north FL though a few went through central FL. Actually, that is also a common track for many of the big well inland AL/NC/SC big snows as well.
For the remaining 30 something major SN/IP, the lowest pressure while in the gulf was 1000+. The average is not too far from 1010 mb and a few were as high as near 1020 mb. So, the best chance is from a weak low/overrunning. Some of the biggest SN/IP in Atlanta were from very weak lows (1015+).
The track is almost always through either SE GA or north FL though a few went through central FL. Actually, that is also a common track for many of the big well inland AL/NC/SC big snows as well.