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Pattern January 2017 Discussion

Here's the Day 7-10 CIPS analogs for the upcoming wintry wx threat. Definitely a tad north and west of where a majority of the guidance is atm, but closer to the EPS. Areas along/north of the I-40 corridor, the I-64 corridor, Virginia/West Virginia mountains, & southern plains are sitting pretty atm. This will obviously change at least somewhat over the next few days but interesting nonetheless.

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jgee322 link said:
Hi!  I have just joined from Tunnel Hill, Ga (Catoosa county just south of Chattanooga, TN).  I don't know much about the science of the weather, but I am fascinated with it.  Thanks for providing a place that people can go to learn more about how weather works!

One quick question... what is SER?

I just signed up as well... I live in High Point, NC (but originally from north of Atlanta).  This site is awesome!


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This could be a beginning trend of how the GFS looked at one point about a week ago which I still have an image saved. I don't know if I should post it cause it may confuse people.

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What is an overrunning event and why is this a good thing? I see this mentioned a lot.
 
Remember the idea from the models a few days ago of 1/4 being the last warm day and 1/5 being the trasnsition to a sustained cold period? Well, per the 12Z Euro, that chill doesn't hold and it warms back up for much of the SE for 1/6 into early 1/7. Now, 1/7 has become a transition day prior to a cold 1/8-9. A pretty serious cold bias that we had in December seems to still be in play in the SE US per the model consensus, especially the GFS. Until this ends, be wary of the modeled timing of cold moving into the SE!
 
FLO link said:
What is an overrunning event and why is this a good thing? I see this mentioned a lot.
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It's a solution frequently seen winter after winter in model land but never shows up in real life anymore.  I think the last one was in 1888 or something.  ;D

If you can get an arctic front to stall across the SE, you can get waves (often disorganized) of low pressure to move along the front, which enhances lift, creating a prolonged precipitation event.  Relatively warmer, moister air riding up over the dense arctic boundary will produce wintry precip on the cold side of the boundary.  The other thing that's cool about these weak waves is that you don't get a ton of warm air injected into the mid-levels.  This means more snow and less ice.  In a nutshell, overrunning events tend to be favored, as they tend to produce a longer duration, mostly snow event over a wide area.  I hope that helps!
 
SD link said:
Good to see metwannabe is cashing in again today

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Well if it makes you feel any better here at the office nothing but I did hear rumors of flurries up my way.  If this is cashing in I'm screwed Lol

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bhs1975 link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=60.msg4923#msg4923 date=1483120425]
Good to see metwannabe is cashing in again today

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He's definitely been in the sweet spot the last few winters.
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Don't hate

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Well, if next weekend doesn't work out, it could just be setting us up for something better down the road. I always look at the last 10 days of January for something special to happen around here.
 
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